Virginia and Mississippi in 1976

[Vepres]

I don't get this. Ford won Virginia and almost won Mississippi despite both being surrounded by strong Carter states. What made them different?

[President Mitt]

Most of the White Vote in Mississippi was for Ford, but Southern Evangelical Carter attracted just enough of the White Vote, and all of the Black vote so Carter won that one. No f'n clue about Virginia though. Possible that since Virginia had a rather smaller black population than other Southern States, and the fact that Virginia's whites were solidly for Ford.

[hcallega]

Virginia has always been the least conservative southern state (not including West Virginia). That is why it is lean Democrat now, and why it was always an area where the GOP did well in compared to the rest of the south. The Dixiecrats were generally the more conservative party than the Republicans, and so in Virginia the suburban and urban voters went for the GOP at a greater rate than other states. Therefore Ford would do better, even though they were both moderate.

[Vepres]

Most of the White Vote in Mississippi was for Ford, but Southern Evangelical Carter attracted just enough of the White Vote, and all of the Black vote so Carter won that one. No f'n clue about Virginia though. Possible that since Virginia had a rather smaller black population than other Southern States, and the fact that Virginia's whites were solidly for Ford.

But what made the Mississippi white vote so different from the white vote in Alabama or Arkansas?

[President Mitt]

Most of the White Vote in Mississippi was for Ford, but Southern Evangelical Carter attracted just enough of the White Vote, and all of the Black vote so Carter won that one. No f'n clue about Virginia though. Possible that since Virginia had a rather smaller black population than other Southern States, and the fact that Virginia's whites were solidly for Ford.

But what made the Mississippi white vote so different from the white vote in Alabama or Arkansas?

Well, Strom Thurmond actually made a commercial (http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/commercials/1976) in support of Ford, Thurmond was pretty popular in Mississippi, but I think Carter Populism played pretty well with Alabama and Arkansas.

[rbt48]

Check out how strongly Republican Mississippi was for Nixon in 1972.  I think that offers a clue that enough whites had gotten into the habit of voting Republican in presidential elections.  Perhaps, while they identified with Carter, they had mistrust of Fritz Mondale as a Northern Liberal.  http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/Mississippi_pv.pdf  I think Carter got a boost with Mississippi whites when, just before election day, it came out in the press that Carter's Baptist church in Plains, GA, did not allow blacks to become members (perhaps even attend).

As for Virginia, Ford only carried it by 22,000 votes (a 1.33% margin).  Enough southern whites identified with Carter to make the state much closer than it had been from 1952 to 2004 (excepting 1964).

Interestingly, if 7500 Carter votes in Mississippi had switched to Ford, Carter would have lost the state.  That would have forced a recount in Ohio, which Carter carried by around 11,000 votes.  Had Ohio also gone the other way, Ford would have been elected with a popular vote deficit of over 1.6 million.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mississipi used to be the most conservative southern state at this time, and they probably considered Carter as a liberal ( even if a moderate one ) instead of as a southerner.
Virginia has always been more republican than the country since 1952.

[Hash]

I think Mississippi whites are the most racist of the Deep South states and they got to voting Republican in 1964, when it was the strongest state for Goldwater.

[Democratic Hawk]

As far as Mississippi goes, there was no such disconnect in 1980 relative to Alabama and Arkansas between Carter and Reagan. Carter losing AR by 0.61%; AL by 1.30% and MS by 1.33%; while Florida appears to have swung the hardest towards Reagan

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Ford's win in Virginia came solely from his wins in Northern Virginia and VA Beach, the least southern parts of the state at the time.  In Mississippi and Alabama, Ford did well in the Gulf Coast parts of each state, but Carter did very well in the upper parts of each one.  It just happened that Alabama had a lot more people living in the central and northern parts of the state than Mississippi did.

[Nym90]

The Mississippi result in 1976 is odd; not sure how to explain the disparity with Alabama, especially since there was none in 1980.

There were actually a few counties in MS that flipped from Ford in 1976 to Carter in 1980. Anyone care to explain those?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There were actually a few counties in MS that flipped from Ford in 1976 to Carter in 1980. Anyone care to explain those?

I'd guess increased black turnout; it's easy to overlook that democracy only came to the state about 15 years earlier. Which counties where they though?

[Ebowed]

Which counties where they though?

Grenada, Franklin, Marion, Yazoo.

Clarke voted for Ford in 1976 but was tied in 1980.

[Nym90]

Yeah, increased black turnout probably was the cause; maybe Reagan's speech arguing strongly for states' rights, which occurred in Mississippi, made a difference.

Looking at the swing map, almost all of western Mississippi swung towards Carter in 1980, and that's the part of the state with the heaviest black population, is it not?

Though it's not entirely regional; some strong Carter swings in eastern MS in counties that were bordered by strong Reagan swinging counties. Probably the black/white divide again, I suppose.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, increased black turnout probably was the cause; maybe Reagan's speech arguing strongly for states' rights, which occurred in Mississippi, made a difference.

Looking at the swing map, almost all of western Mississippi swung towards Carter in 1980, and that's the part of the state with the heaviest black population, is it not?

Though it's not entirely regional; some strong Carter swings in eastern MS in counties that were bordered by strong Reagan swinging counties. Probably the black/white divide again, I suppose.

Also look at the exit polls in 1976 and 1980 among blacks.  http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

Ford got a surprisingly high 16% among blacks, while Reagan got just 11% in 1980. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, increased black turnout probably was the cause; maybe Reagan's speech arguing strongly for states' rights, which occurred in Mississippi, made a difference.

Looking at the swing map, almost all of western Mississippi swung towards Carter in 1980, and that's the part of the state with the heaviest black population, is it not?

Though it's not entirely regional; some strong Carter swings in eastern MS in counties that were bordered by strong Reagan swinging counties. Probably the black/white divide again, I suppose.

Also look at the exit polls in 1976 and 1980 among blacks.  http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

Ford got a surprisingly high 16% among blacks, while Reagan got just 11% in 1980. 

Apparently his States Rights speech in Philadelphia and his Welfare Queen anecdote didn't exactly endear him among blacks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, increased black turnout probably was the cause; maybe Reagan's speech arguing strongly for states' rights, which occurred in Mississippi, made a difference.

Looking at the swing map, almost all of western Mississippi swung towards Carter in 1980, and that's the part of the state with the heaviest black population, is it not?

Though it's not entirely regional; some strong Carter swings in eastern MS in counties that were bordered by strong Reagan swinging counties. Probably the black/white divide again, I suppose.

Also look at the exit polls in 1976 and 1980 among blacks.  http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

Ford got a surprisingly high 16% among blacks, while Reagan got just 11% in 1980. 

Apparently his States Rights speech in Philadelphia and his Welfare Queen anecdote didn't exactly endear him among blacks.

[Nym90]

While we're discussing swings to Carter in 1980, can anyone explain Plaquemines Parish, LA? A 27 point swing to Carter in 1980 followed by a 29 point swing to Reagan in 1984....very odd.