Taiwan elections
Beet:
The Taiwan elections are in March 2004. Given the statements put out by the Chinese CCP, Mr. Chen, and the Bush administration, there could very well be a crisis on the Taiwan strait if Mr. Chen is re-elected. What do you think?
jaichind:
I pray each day that the demogogue Chen Sui-Bien does not win in 2004. His is running a populist campaign to cover up his losy record on the economy. At this stage the Lien-Soong ticket still have about a 60% chance of winning but the sly Chen could pull at lot of rabbits out of his hat.
jaichind:
I am from Taiwan Province myself. Of course I am very biased. I am Chinese reunifiaction and very hostile to Chen Sui-Bien. Here is how I see the election matches up. Traditionally the pro-unification pan-KMT parties has about 60% of the vote and the pan-DPP has about 35% of the vote.
A split in the KMT in 200 lead to a victory for Chen with 39% vote. KMT candidate Lien got 23% and renegade KMT candidate Soong got 37%.
The breaking off of the pro-independence faction of the KMT in 2001 led by ex-KMT Chairman Lee realigned the 60-35 balance to 55-40 balance between the two blocs.
Chen in March 2004 faces a Lien-Soong ticket. The power of incumbancy should swing another 5% so the election should be a 50-45 affair with advantage for the KMT. It is totally possible that Chen could provoke Mainland China ahead of the election and the resulting tensions could push Chen to victory.
Polls either show a dead heat or Lien-Soong with a 5-10% lead. Problem for Chen is that no poll show him with more than 40% support. The undecided are at least 20% and in the USA most of that will go to the challanger. But this is the Chinese province of Taiwan and not USA. That is where the hope of the Chen campaign lies.
My prediction: Lien 53 Chen 47.
Filuwaúrdjan:
The last thing the world needs now is a war between the worlds 1st and 4th largest armies...
jaichind:
I believe that the ROC armed forces does not number that high to be the 4th largest in the world. For sure, American, Russian, India, North Korean, South Korean armed forces are larger.
For sure a conflict should be avoided at all costs. Back in 1996 it was more Mainland China's fault for increase in tensions. This time it is 100% Taiwan with the Chen administration at the helm.
Of course the conflict might not last that long. Most estimates have the ROC armed forces holding out between 22 hours to two weeks before utter defeat. And that does not take into account of possible collapse of morale in the pro-unification ROC armed forces when they realize that they are fighting for Taiwan independence. They might just defect en masse. Diehard unificationsts on Taiwan Province like me might not number that high (5-15% dependending on how one counts it) but some will be working actively for the PLA in a conflict and bring the war to a quick resolution.
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