Akno21
Junior Chimp
Posts: 9,066
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« on: September 18, 2004, 07:25:44 AM » |
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« edited: September 19, 2004, 03:36:01 PM by Senator Akno21 »
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Live from our Nyman Bureau, MANN, the Mid Atlantic News Network (Formerly known as LET) presents, Presidential Polling, from June to today
GOP Primaries
When PBrunsel StatesRights John ReaganFan
July 18-19 27 45 NA 9
August 29-30 40 33 10 10
Sep 8-11 37 20 42 NA
The sudden drop-out of Candidate John really changes the picture here. At the outset, StatesRights was obviously winning because he was the only candidate elected to public office. Once PBrunsel won the MidWest governership, his poll numbers began a dramatic shift upwards, and we are seeing the results of that today. John's numbers may have been inflated, because it is our belief that many Liberals voted for John, due to the fact that they considered him the easiest to beat, a fact proven by later polls. PBrunsel has been able, in his time on the forum, to present himself as a person with conservative values, but as a person less fierce and more likable than StatesRights. If StatesRights wants to win the nomination, his best chance would be to bring up his Conservative, yet impressive, Senate record, espeically the Concealed Firearms Act.
AFIP Primaries
When Harry Hughento Nym90 IlikeVerin
August 30-Sep 1 10 2 23 13
Sep 12-14 51 48 NA NA
The first poll was just of general AFIPers and not of any delcared candidates, so it is not to be taken too seriously. The second poll shows a virtual dead-heat between Harry and Hughento, meaning the AFIP nomination is truly up for grabs. A seaprate prediction of the AFIP Primaries shows Hughento beating Harry in the delegate count, 250-200. However, even if Hughento wins the AFIP nomination, that does not mean Harry is out. He has strong support among the AFDNC, and should easily win their endorsement, private polling concludes.
UAC Primaries
When John Ford Andrew Htmldon Nation
Sep 12-15 30 16 13 10
The only publicly delcared candidate is Mr. Hobbes, who ran an unsuccessful Senate race last August. John Ford has gotten support in the past from the center-right, and should he run, he would be an attractive candidate, and would do well in the primaries. VP Andrew has not made a decision yet on whether to run, but he does have some support, and would have the added bonus of being VP if he did run. In generic party polls, the UAC generally ranks at or near the top. They are a very large party, and whoever they put out will get many votes, although Mr. Hobbes may be an exception to that rule. he is rather inexperienced, and is making a big jump in delcaring for the Presidency, before he has served in any government office.
GOP vs. Harry
All Sep 16-17.
Harry PBrunsel StatesRights John
35/46/52 64 53 47
This is a very important poll, especially for GOP voters looking for electability in their candidates. PBrunsel is beating Harry by 29 points, and seems very electable, earning the nickname, the Ronlad Reagan of Atlasia. StatesRights is only leading Harry by 7 points, and it is clear that something about him does not appeal to swing voters. It is still unclear whether Harry is the strongest left-wing candidate, and that Harry and the UAC do not have a pleasant relationship, which may have lost him some votes a candidate such as Hughento may have recieved.
General Left-Wing
When Al Harry DemRepDan TexasGurl
July 18-19 27 27 27 9
This poll is very old, and two of the candidates aren't even running. However, it does show Al with a large baston of support, which he will need if he wants the nomination of the UL, or another left-wing party.
General Presidential
When Harry PBrunsel Hugh UAC Migrendel Badnarikin04
Sep 11-13 40 36 NA NA NA NA
Sep 14-17 20 29 14 26 NA NA
Sep 16-19 26 26 7 NA 7 NA
The first poll (With Akno21 and StatesRights as running mates) is within a reasonable margin-of-error, and basically shows a tight race between Harry and PBrunsel, which is suprising, because in another poll taken a few days later, PBrunsel was beating Harry by 29 points, without VP's. Perhaps the addition of StatesRights scared some voters away. The second poll is a very good one, and shows a competitive three-way matchup, when Harry and Hughento's totals are combined. When that is done, the AFIP, PBrunsel, and the UAC are all within 8 points of each other. This poll shows that the UAC has tremendous drawing power, even though no candidates were listed. The third poll establishes PBrunsel and Harry as the favorites from their perspective ends of the political spectrum. When combined, the GOP got 49 percent of the vote, and various liberals got 40, with 9 going Libertarian.
Current Predictions:
AFRNC: PBrunsel wins by 10-15%
UAC: Mr. Hobbes at the moment, however if any other candidate jumps in, he will most likely become the favorite
AFDNC: Harry by 30-35%
AFIP: Hughento by 3-10%
UL: Al by 10-15%
Thank you.
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