The most vulnerable

[Shira]

 From all the states that Bush won in 2000, NH, FL, and NV (by this order) are the most vulnerable.
IA, WI, and MN are the most vulnerable Gore’s states.

In NH and FL Bush’s numbers will be below his national one (he can still win them)
At least in IA and WI Kerry’s numbers will be less than his national one.

This is how Bush’s numbers will more or less look like.

MO>AZ>IA>TN>OH>WI>NATIONAL>NV>MN>PA>OR>FL>NH>MI

[Lunar]

New Hampshire and then West Virginia are the most vulnerable (going to Kerry in a tie).  Nevada and Florida seem to be leaning Bush when the election is tied in the polls.

You do know that this is like your eighth thread that shows the FL>OH>NV>NH stuff, right?

[Blue Rectangle]

This is how Bush’s numbers will more or less look like.

MO>AZ>IA>TN>OH>WI>NATIONAL>NV>MN>PA>OR>FL>NH>MI

Bush will carry MN and PA and even OR before FL?
Bush has to win nationally by a few points and carry MN just to have a shot?

[Shira]

New Hampshire and then West Virginia are the most vulnerable (going to Kerry in a tie).  Nevada and Florida seem to be leaning Bush when the election is tied in the polls.

You do know that this is like your eighth thread that shows the FL>OH>NV>NH stuff, right?

Bush in WV in a very good shape.

Prediction (as to Bush):


WV > OH + 2

[Shira]

You do know that this is like your eighth thread that shows the FL>OH>NV>NH stuff, right?

In my analysis TREND is a key factor.

[Lunar]

I disagree then.  You have to consider that Gore did bad in WV because of his positions on coal, which caused a reasonable number of voters to switch or stay at home.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

How would NH go to Kerry?  Maybe to Badnarik first!   But really, there's not *that* many Dems in NH.

[Lunar]

How would NH go to Kerry?  Maybe to Badnarik first!   But really, there's not *that* many Dems in NH.

It was  barely lost by Gore and the polls show Kerry consistantly ahead even when he's down a point or two nationally.

[zachman]

How would NH go to Kerry?  Maybe to Badnarik first!   But really, there's not *that* many Dems in NH.

Other than taxes and spending, New Hampshire is pretty close to the Democratic party on most issues. Assuming Bush's bounce fades NH is Kerry country.

[CollectiveInterest]

It's interesting Kerry is strong in Colorado.

[Shira]

It's interesting Kerry is strong in Colorado.

There are rumors that he is giving up on Colorado. I don’t believe.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Everyone seems to be forgetting about New Mexico.

Bush seems likely to pick up that state (among others).

[Lunar]

Everyone seems to be forgetting about New Mexico.

Bush seems likely to pick up that state (among others).

Kerry seems a point or two stronger there than Gore in 2000.

[Shira]

Everyone seems to be forgetting about New Mexico.

Bush seems likely to pick up that state (among others).

Kerry seems a point or two stronger there than Gore in 2000.

Kerry seems a point or two stronger there than last week, but still in a very bad shape.

[Shira]

Everyone seems to be forgetting about New Mexico.

Bush seems likely to pick up that state (among others).

The election will be decided in Florida.

[Democratic Hawk]

I think Wisconsin is very vulnerable and while Kerry does not have commanding leads in Iowa and Minnesota(his leads have tended to bare to marginal but consistent)  I'm becoming increasingly confident that they will stay Democrat.

I think for Bush to win either of those, he should have consistent, however big or small, by now.

Wisconsin could very well be the closest state race come November 2.

Dave

[Giant Saguaro]

NH and WV are the most vulnerable Bush states, little disagreement there. Previously, I would have said Arkansas, but I have doubts now about that one being really vulnerable. Of the ones I said, NH, I think, more so than WV. I believe NH is beginning to trend along behind Vermont and Maine and becoming more Democratic and likely more liberal, but I could be wrong. I haven't analyzed the state enough to go in-depth, but it makes sense and is probably logical to assume so.

As of now, there is a host of Gore states that I believe are vulnerable. NM, IA, WI, maybe PA and OR (OR was close in 2000, let's remember), and maybe MN. I'd say the first 3 are most vulnerable.

It's hard to tell what will happen as I'll take the safe bet and say that many of these swing states as well as these lean Bush and lean Kerry states will be very, very close.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Everyone seems to be forgetting about New Mexico.

Bush seems likely to pick up that state (among others).

Kerry seems a point or two stronger there than Gore in 2000.

I would be interested in knowning on what you base this opinion?

[CARLHAYDEN]

IF the election were to be really close, the issue would be decided in Ohio, not Florida.

[Lunar]

Everyone seems to be forgetting about New Mexico.

Bush seems likely to pick up that state (among others).

Kerry seems a point or two stronger there than Gore in 2000.

I would be interested in knowning on what you base this opinion?

I guess it would be my gut feeling, polls, Badnarik's constant campaigning and demographics.

[Gustaf]

I would say Wisconsin and New Mexico are the most vulnerable Gore states, all other states Gore won should be better than average for Kerry. On Bush's side I'd say New Hampshire, West Virginia and Ohio are the most vulnerable. Obviously, Ohio is the deciding state, since it's the only really big state among those mentioned.

[Democratic Hawk]

Pennsylania's looking awfully tight for Kerry's liking at the moment too - but I still think Wisconsin is the most vulnerable.

Recent polls have given Kerry a respectable lead in New Mexico - but I think it will be competitive.

Dave

[CARLHAYDEN]

I base mine on a combination of hard data (voter registration statistics) and reports from friends and relatives.


Everyone seems to be forgetting about New Mexico.

Bush seems likely to pick up that state (among others).

Kerry seems a point or two stronger there than Gore in 2000.

I would be interested in knowning on what you base this opinion?

I guess it would be my gut feeling, polls, Badnarik's constant campaigning and demographics.