Gallup: Bush up 8 in Ohio

[NHPolitico]

Inside Politics: in the just-released CNN/Time/Gallup poll, among likely voters W now leads by 8% in Ohio: 52% W, 44% Kerry. This compares with a 2% Kerry lead prior to the convention-- a 10-point swing.

An 11% swing turns up among registered voters in Ohio: from Bush down 10% to Bush leading by 1%.

[lonestar]

I wish I could believe Bush is up 8% in Ohio.  I believe he is up, but only by about 2.5-3% (which is what I believe he will win the state by).  

With that being said, its always good to see a Gallup poll showing Bush doing well in a battleground state.

Did they say anythign about Florida or Pennsylvania?  The last few times they've released the Ohio polls, they've done other states too.

[Floridude]

....and there was much rejoicing.    Actually, I agree with lonestar, Bush is not ahead by 8 pts in Ohio.  That said, figure the difference between LV and RV, and factor in the MOE, and you get about a 2-4 pt lead.    Good news certainly for team Bush.

[MODU]

I say from now on, any "leads" by any candidate in any state should be divided by 2, and that might give us a more accurate idea of how the candidates are doing.  Just like the Arizona poll that was posted earlier saying Bush was up 16%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is pretty unsurprising, considering it almost completely conforms with Gallup's recent national survey.  Reality is somewhere between the RV sample and the LV sample, as it seems is always the case with Gallup recently.

[Blue Rectangle]

Sounds like Bush got about 4 points out of the convention on top of his 2 point lead before the RNC.  He's probably up about 6 nationwide right now.  This is consistant with the OH poll in my opinion, assuming that OH is about +2 for Bush over his national numbers.

Applying the same to the recent AZ and OR polls makes:
Bush +10 in AZ over national (+16 in poll, a little high?)
Bush -5 in OR over national (+1 in poll, a little low?)

If we see a poll in WI with Bush +6, we'll know that he's +6 nationally

[JNB]

    Bush may be ahead by a little here for now, but still below 50. Again, Bush is going to have to adress the job issue in Ohio, and how many people who were working in blue collar jobs making $20 hr are now in service jobs making less than $10 hr. The convention and the events in Russia have taken attention away from this for now, but that will be short lived.

[MODU]

Bush is going to have to adress the job issue in Ohio.

He has, on numerous visits this year.

[The Vorlon]

An 11% swing turns up among registered voters in Ohio: from Bush down 10% to Bush leading by 1%.

Gallup does that funky weight down / weight up thing on their polls which, untill they switch to the standard turnout model (happens beginning of october) produces some really funky RV numbers.

For example, in the last national poll Bush's actual lead among RVs was 5 points, weighted down to 1%.

When Gallup actually narrows their Likely sample to a final value and goes to their sliding turnout scale, it make sense.

Right now, it does NOT, at least IMHO.  I generally think I understand these things, but this one, I do not

Bush up 8 in Ohio - good news anyway you slice it however if you're a Bush fan.

I know it's CNN, but does anybody have a link...?

[agcatter]

Yeah, Bush is not up 8 in Ohio.  I'd buy 3 or 4 maybe.

[The Vorlon]

here is a bit of a link to the Poll

Bush 52
Kerry 43
Nader 2

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040908/dcw066_1.html

Just a very short and minimal write up, best I could find

According to the write up, we will get Gallup polls for Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington tommow in USA Today

[Lunar]

Not that unbelievable if you think Bush is up 4-6 nationally.

[The Vorlon]

Not that unbelievable if you think Bush is up 4-6 nationally.

I think Florida and Ohio have essentially swaped places in 2004

In 2000 Bush was 4% better in Ohio than his national average, while Florida was basically exactly at his national average.

In 2004 I think Ohio is basically dead even with Bush's National numbers, while Bush is maybe 2-3% better in Florida than his National support.

Is Nader on the ballot in Ohio..?   BTW

Other key results in Ohio:
     Respondents who believe only Bush would be a good President:     42%
     Respondents who believe only Kerry would be a good President:    34%
     Respondents who believe both would be a good President:          10%
     Respondents who believe neither would be a good President:        9%

If we use this question as a +/- proxy for "certain" support, Bush is also up 8%

[AuH2O]

I believe Bush up 8 in Ohio. Sounds quite reasonable when you consider he leads nationally.

State polls are overrated, but this is a pretty good one.

[Blue Rectangle]

Is Nader on the ballot in Ohio..?   BTW

Cool new page

[Lunar]

Not that unbelievable if you think Bush is up 4-6 nationally.

I think Florida and Ohio have essentially swaped places in 2004

In 2000 Bush was 4% better in Ohio than his national average, while Florida was basically exactly at his national average.

In 2004 I think Ohio is basically dead even with Bush's National numbers, while Bush is maybe 2-3% better in Florida than his National support.

Is Nader on the ballot in Ohio..?   BTW

Other key results in Ohio:
     Respondents who believe only Bush would be a good President:     42%
     Respondents who believe only Kerry would be a good President:    34%
     Respondents who believe both would be a good President:          10%
     Respondents who believe neither would be a good President:        9%

If we use this question as a +/- proxy for "certain" support, Bush is also up 8%

The odd situation with the ABB movement could mean that a lot of those neither respondants are very likely Kerry or non-Bush voters.

[The Vorlon]

The odd situation with the ABB movement could mean that a lot of those neither respondants are very likely Kerry or non-Bush voters.

A valid point.

To a lot on the waaaaaay far left Bush is like Hitler, while Kerry is still bad, say maybe Pol Pot, so they hold thir nose and vote for Pol Pot as it were.

Hard thing to poll out, but your theory is at very least plausable.

[JNB]

Bush is going to have to adress the job issue in Ohio.

He has, on numerous visits this year.

   What many in Ohio are looking for is the China/Asia and the illegal immigrant issues to be adressed, Mr. Bush hasnt dont that yet. Slogans and rhetoric can only get someone so far.

[zorkpolitics]

Not that unbelievable if you think Bush is up 4-6 nationally.

I think Florida and Ohio have essentially swaped places in 2004

In 2000 Bush was 4% better in Ohio than his national average, while Florida was basically exactly at his national average.

In 2004 I think Ohio is basically dead even with Bush's National numbers, while Bush is maybe 2-3% better in Florida than his National support.

Is Nader on the ballot in Ohio..?   BTW

Nader is on the ballot in FL, but  so far not in OH, he has filed a lawsuit there to get on the ballot

[MODU]

Bush is going to have to adress the job issue in Ohio.

He has, on numerous visits this year.

   What many in Ohio are looking for is the China/Asia and the illegal immigrant issues to be adressed, Mr. Bush hasnt dont that yet. Slogans and rhetoric can only get someone so far.

But he has, just possibly not in the fashion that you want.  I too don't think that the Temporary Worker Program is the best option, but at least it is an attempt (something more than many others have come up with).

[CARLHAYDEN]

The odd situation with the ABB movement could mean that a lot of those neither respondants are very likely Kerry or non-Bush voters.

A valid point.

To a lot on the waaaaaay far left Bush is like Hitler, while Kerry is still bad, say maybe Pol Pot, so they hold thir nose and vote for Pol Pot as it were.

Hard thing to poll out, but your theory is at very least plausable.

From the info I have, the Bush campaign views Ohio as THE key state.

They have poured a lot of time, effort and money into organizing in Ohio.

[Floridude]

From what I've read, Bush has 60,000 ground volunteers in Ohio, which is nearly 3 times the number in 00

[M]

What is the China/Asia issue? Outsourcing? Immigration? Or the "coming WWIII with China"?

[Nym90]

What is the China/Asia issue? Outsourcing? Immigration? Or the "coming WWIII with China"?

Well, I would say that outsourcing and our trade imbalance with China have strengthened them greatly....thus increasing the liklihood of some sort of future war with them. Trade with China should be severely reduced.

[ATFFL]

What is the China/Asia issue? Outsourcing? Immigration? Or the "coming WWIII with China"?

Well, I would say that outsourcing and our trade imbalance with China have strengthened them greatly....thus increasing the liklihood of some sort of future war with them. Trade with China should be severely reduced.

High trade with China makes them  more dependent on us.  China lacks capitol and secure transportation.  In the event of a war they have no free money to invest and no way to secure resources.

Making them economically dependent on our good graces is more likely to prevent a war.