goldwater > bush??

[WalterMitty]

is there any possibility that bush may do worse than goldwater in massachusetts, rhode island, or new york?

here are goldwater's numbers:

mass: 23.4%
ny: 31.3%
RI: 19.1%

[tinman64]

No chance.  Bush will do much better in each state:

MA: low 40s
NY: low 40s
RI: upper 30s

[WalterMitty]

bush only got 35% of the vote in ny in 2000.  

dole did worse in ny than goldwater.  he received only 30%

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Bush will do better in all three states, but it will be close in NY.

I believe Johnson's 1964 victory over Goldwater in NY was the biggest landslide in history in terms of total number of votes cast at 2.7 million.  I don't think any other candidate has ever won a state by more than 2 million.

[zachman]

NY if the convention is a mess next week, but otherwise no. I'm waiting for the question McGovern > Kerry.

[AuH2O]

Bush is going to do much better.

I mean, first off, John Kerry is not 1964 LBJ.. i.e. Goldwater lost so badly in those states because they were the most liberal in an election he lost badly.

Bush probably won't lose, and if he does it will be close.

I think he will get about 40% in NY, about 35% in RI, and 38-42% in Mass.

Thing about Massachussetts is, he might actually not do as well there as one might think. I get the feeling a fair number of people there dislike him, to the point he could underperform Gore straight up (and then tack on points to Bush as his national margin increases).

[zachman]

Thing about Massachussetts is, he might actually not do as well there as one might think. I get the feeling a fair number of people there dislike him, to the point he could underperform Gore straight up (and then tack on points to Bush as his national margin increases).

I see Massachusetts as 65% Kerry 30% Bush and 5% Nader and Cobb combined. There are probably enough left wingers who would flee Kerry if the prediction is a landslide. Turnout will probably be much higher there than in 2000. I can't predict Bush getting over 35% in MA and RI.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No chance.  Bush will do much better in each state:

MA: low 40s
NY: low 40s
RI: upper 30s

No way Bush will break 40 in any of those.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No, but he will do worse than Goldwater in NYC like he did in 2000.