Will Bush improve his low numbers this time?

[Shira]

In 2000 Bush got 10% among blacks, 20% among Jews and 15% in NYC.
What these numbers are going to be in this time?
My prediction: 10,25,18.

[© tweed]

I had no idea he polled that well among black voters.

He got 9%.

Here what I think:

11, 26, 22

[WalterMitty]

bush will improve with jewish voters.

i deal with the black community quite extensively, and im quite dismayed by their willingness to 'group-think'.  most of them have really no solid reason for disliking bush, it's jsut the black thing to do.

radical black 'leaders' have done a good job at demonizing bush, just like they did giuliani in nyc.  if i were black id hold walter williams in higher esteem than i would jesse jackson, al sharpton, or mfume (wonder how many illegitimate kids the three of them combined have?)

[Blue Rectangle]

Bush will improve among Blacks due largely to 9/11 and his response.
Ditto Jews.  Ditto NYC.

Of those three, the Black vote will improve the least--Bush will improve slightly because of personality.  The Jewish vote is also buoyed by Bush's support of Sharon and his intervention in Iraq, along with the absence of Lieberman.  NYC is helped by the RNC.

[© tweed]

Quinnipiac has Kerry up 67-22% in the city.  It's probably more like 70-20% right now including undecideds.

They also have Kerry up 'only' 18 in NY, which is probably 3 or four points low.

Bottom line, Bush gets a small boost (5% tops) from 9-11 and the RNC in NYC.

[MODU]

I agree with Mitty.  He definitely has the Jewish pull this time.  Last time, though he was viewed as being Israel friendly, he didn't want to have much to do with Isreal when he was elected.  Now, following the war on terrorism, he has definitely locked up 30% of that voting group.  Remember, we have many citizens living in Israel now, so they should be getting out their absentee ballots in the near future.

Blacks is going to be his hardest population to target.  He will improve, but not by much.  As far as NYC goes . . . anyone got a coin I can flip?