Sabato Sees Kerry Victory

[HoopsCubs]

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0808-07.htm

His take is that this is definitely an "Anybody But Bush" vote moreso than a pro-John Kerry vote.  He seems to be saying, for now, that Bush has bet his re-election on Iraq, and that appears to be a losing hand.

By the way, I am looking for a link to an analysis conducted by Charles Cook on undetermined voters.  His take is that Kerry will win by a hair because undetermined voters will break Kerry's way.  I'll attach the link when I find it.

 

[AuH2O]

OK, mea culpa, anytime I quoted Sabato or defended him, I'm sorry... the guy is a complete idiot.

I mean, you know someone is clueless when they think inconclusive poll numbers establish the "fundamentals" of a race-- though his "fundamentals" aren't very fundamental because he called it Bush's race a couple months ago.

Did the country add 20 million new voters, via Martian immigration? Did Bush convert to Buddhism? Little Larry appears to have lost all contact with reality, though at least we know who he'll be voting for. He even is convincing himself his vote will count by saying Kerry can win VA!

Cook has more or less the same problem, except his prediction relies on faulty assumptions rather than out-and-out fantasy. The CW is on Kerry's side... I guess that's good for him, though really Max Cleland would probably trade the CW for his Senate seat.

One problem appears to be the assumption that Kerry begins with all of Gore's voters, and then gets to add here and there. Where this idea came from I have no idea, perhaps to help perpetuate the idea of the country being "polarized" or whatever.

ABCNews' political unit said today that they had not heard of a single Gore voter that supports Bush this time around. Humorous, since the list of celebrities alone is pretty long (Dennis Miller, Gary Sinise to name a couple) not to mention politicians such as Zell Miller, Ed Koch, and Randy Kelly. Doubly odd since they have COVERED those politicians, including Kelly's endorsement of Bush pretty recently.

But, then again, we all know the press wants Kerry to win. They are suppressing the Cambodia stuff, they are not subjecting Kerry's Senate record to any scrutiny, and so on. Not that it will matter, except to boost Fox's profits further.

[Gabu]

Recent polls I've seen have only shown Bush ahead by 3% or so in Virginia.  I don't see why there's no possibility that Kerry could win it.

That said, I think it's fairly silly to say that Kerry would win "handily".  The election at this point could still go either way.

[AuH2O]

Polls mean crap.

[Gabu]

Given that the average margin of error in polls from Election 2000 was something like 2.4%, they seem pretty good to me.

[AuH2O]

Those were the final polls. Those are alright.

Polls this far out are basically nonsense. You're better off using a random number generator a bunch of times.

[agcatter]

It would take "a miricle" huh.  You'd think the good professor might want to at least let Bush get his convention in before running off to swear in President Kerry.  

As far as Cook goes, he's never seen an election yet he didn't think a Democrat was favored in.  I'm thinking about his brilliant predictions in the 2002 senate races.

Guess we ought to just cancel the election and move Lurch right on into the White House.

[zachman]

It would take "a miricle" huh.  You'd think the good professor might want to at least let Bush get his convention in before running off to swear in President Kerry.  

As far as Cook goes, he's never seen an election yet he didn't think a Democrat was favored in.  I'm thinking about his brilliant predictions in the 2002 senate races.

Guess we ought to just cancel the election and move Lurch right on into the White House.

If Bush can't get a boost from a primetime speech or a State of The Union Adress, he is not going to get a boost from a reelection convention.

[Giant Saguaro]

It's almost getting to the point where Kerry is so freaking bad, people, that it's starting to seem to me that people are making an excuse for voting for him. I mean... "Well, he's not worse than Bush!"... "Well, my vote is more anti-Bush than pro Kerry."... "Uh, I'm just voting against Bush."... "See, I'm not voting as much for Kerry as much as I am against Bush..." and on and on. Like it's an excuse or something. I'm beginning to wonder - and I've been hearing this anybody but Bush talk since January (maybe even more now than in January), which leads me to believe Kerry has not given anyone a reason to vote for him - will any of these people consider, just consider the Republican candidate in 2008? Is it anybody but Bush or is it really, no one but a Democrat? So in 2008 it will be anybody but Giuliani, or anybody but Owens, or anybody but ________ (R). It's interesting. And hey, if that's it, fine - just say it.

[Gabu]

As I said in another thread, had McCain been the candidate rather than Bush, I'd have voted Republican.  I don't hate Repubicans as a whole.  However, I do hate Bush.  And I do like Kerry.  Ergo, I'm supporting Kerry.

[Giant Saguaro]

As I said in another thread, had McCain been the candidate rather than Bush, I'd have voted Republican.  I don't hate Repubicans as a whole.  However, I do hate Bush.  And I do like Kerry.  Ergo, I'm supporting Kerry.

Okay, cool. A lot of people seem to say that, but he is right of center and does vote with conservative members often enough to be called that, so it must be a Bush thing then. For some reason, it's just a Bush thing. See, that's why, regardless of whether or not Bush 43 is re-elected, I'm against Jeb running in 2008. Other Republicans I'm friends with will counter that he's moderate and all that... doesn't matter, he's a Bush.

[agcatter]

If you "like" Kerry you are one of the few and I'm talking about those that are leaning towards him.  Few actually like the guy.

A week long convention beating up the other guy is not insignificant.

Anyone who says three months out  that Kerry will win barring some kind of miricle is talking out his ass.  I wonder what the Gallup people think about what Sabato is saying?

[Gabu]

As I said in another thread, had McCain been the candidate rather than Bush, I'd have voted Republican.  I don't hate Repubicans as a whole.  However, I do hate Bush.  And I do like Kerry.  Ergo, I'm supporting Kerry.

Okay, cool. A lot of people seem to say that, but he is right of center and does vote with conservative members often enough to be called that, so it must be a Bush thing then. For some reason, it's just a Bush thing. See, that's why, regardless of whether or not Bush 43 is re-elected, I'm against Jeb running in 2008. Other Republicans I'm friends with will counter that he's moderate and all that... doesn't matter, he's a Bush.

It's not really how he votes.  It's their character, really.  I see more weasel in Bush than I've seen in a long time and I don't like it.  I personally think he misled the American people far too many times.  It's not that he's a Republican.  McCain I consider to be a very straightforward, decent guy, which is why I like him.

[khirkhib]

I like Kerry.  I know lots of people that like Kerry.  A one point it was just ABB but it no longer is trust me.  Kerry's huge rallies underscore that.  The ficticous Democrats that you hang out with aside the movement really is getting behind Kerry.

[opebo]

I'm watching Sabato on O'Reilly right now.  He seems to be going mostly on a Florida victory for Kerry.  Also WV and NV.