The 20 year landslide, will it happen again?

[King]

Every 20 years since 1904 there has been landslide of electoral votes:

1904 - Roosevelt (R) defeats Parker (D) with 70% of the electoral college

1924 - Coolidge (R) defeats Davis (D) with 71% of the electoral college

1944 - Roosevelt (D) defeats Dewey (R) with 81% of the electoral college

1964 - Johnson (D) defeats Goldwater (R) with 90% of the electoral college

1984 - Reagan (R) defeats Mondale (D)  with 97% of the electoral college

If this happens again it will have to be this year. Will it and if so Bush or Kerry?

Of these 5 landslides, 3 were a Republican and 2 were a Democratic.

[ATFFL]

The landslide has also gotten bigger every time.  Bush or Kerry would need to win every EV but 12 or less.  I don't see that happening.

The pattern (2 R, 2 D) requires it to be a Bush landslide.

A landslide is possible, but unlikely.  I think the trend was a 20th Centruy thing and is over now.

[Keystone Phil]

I have always said Bush is going to win easily this November. Remember guys the election is November 2nd, not tomorrow.

[King]

I have always said Bush is going to win easily this November. Remember guys the election is November 2nd, not tomorrow.

True, also the 1944 landslide: Dewey lead Roosevelt by 2% at this time, so a close election doesn't rule out landslide.

[King]

The landslide has also gotten bigger every time.  Bush or Kerry would need to win every EV but 12 or less.  I don't see that happening.

The pattern (2 R, 2 D) requires it to be a Bush landslide.

A landslide is possible, but unlikely.  I think the trend was a 20th Centruy thing and is over now.

If only Mondale had won Pennsylvania, then Bush would would only need to get 500...(win everything except New York, DC, and Rhode Island)...

[© tweed]

Every 20 years since 1904 there has been landslide of electoral votes:

1904 - Roosevelt (R) defeats Parker (D) with 70% of the electoral college

1924 - Coolidge (R) defeats Davis (D) with 71% of the electoral college

1944 - Roosevelt (D) defeats Dewey (R) with 81% of the electoral college

1964 - Johnson (D) defeats Goldwater (R) with 90% of the electoral college

1984 - Reagan (R) defeats Mondale (D)  with 97% of the electoral college

If this happens again it will have to be this year. Will it and if so Bush or Kerry?

Of these 5 landslides, 3 were a Republican and 2 were a Democratic.

What do the elections of 1904, 1924, 1944, etc. have to do with 2004?

[King]

Every 20 years since 1904 there has been landslide of electoral votes:

1904 - Roosevelt (R) defeats Parker (D) with 70% of the electoral college

1924 - Coolidge (R) defeats Davis (D) with 71% of the electoral college

1944 - Roosevelt (D) defeats Dewey (R) with 81% of the electoral college

1964 - Johnson (D) defeats Goldwater (R) with 90% of the electoral college

1984 - Reagan (R) defeats Mondale (D)  with 97% of the electoral college

If this happens again it will have to be this year. Will it and if so Bush or Kerry?

Of these 5 landslides, 3 were a Republican and 2 were a Democratic.

What do the elections of 1904, 1924, 1944, etc. have to do with 2004?

Nothing...its just they followed the same trend...

[Beet]

They were all won by the incumbents. It may have something to do with the psychology of not switching course in the middle of a decade.

If Bush won 370 electoral votes, it would be 68%.

[AuH2O]

It will be a landslide of sorts, but not like 1984 or anything.

In reality, landslides are just a common thing-- they've happened outside of that 20-year rhythm. An Electoral College "landslide" is fairly easy to achieve, all things considered, because the margin of victory in a given state doesn't matter (Reagan got New Jersey's EV all the same as California's).

[Giant Saguaro]

It could be a comfortable margin of victory for one of them, Bush or Kerry, but it won't be a margin on par with these. All trends stop somewhere, and this one stops in 2004.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The landslide has also gotten bigger every time.  Bush or Kerry would need to win every EV but 12 or less.  I don't see that happening.

The pattern (2 R, 2 D) requires it to be a Bush landslide.

A landslide is possible, but unlikely.  I think the trend was a 20th Centruy thing and is over now.

Only if you measure by the number of states. By the popular vote 1964 totally beat 1984. And anyways, 1944 was the smallest landslide in decades.

[millwx]

In reality, landslides are just a common thing-- they've happened outside of that 20-year rhythm. An Electoral College "landslide" is fairly easy to achieve, all things considered, because the margin of victory in a given state doesn't matter (Reagan got New Jersey's EV all the same as California's).

Absolutely right.  How many times has an election even been within, oh, say, 25% of the total EVs?...

1792: 25% of EVs = 66 => Washington beat Adams by 55EVs
1796: 25% of EVs = 69 => Adams beat Jefferson by 3EVs
1800: 25% of EVs = 69 => Jefferson tied Burr
1812: 25% of EVs = 55 => Madison beat Clinton by 39EVs
1824: 25% of EVs = 65 => Jackson beat Adams by 15EVs
1844: 25% of EVs = 69 => Polk beat Clay by 65EVs
1848: 25% of EVs = 73 => Taylor beat Cass by 36EVs
1856: 25% of EVs = 74 => Buchanan beat Fremont by 50EVs
1876: 25% of EVs = 92 => Hayes beat Tilden by 1EV
1880: 25% of EVs = 92 => Garfield beat Hancock by 59EVs
1884: 25% of EVs =100 => Cleveland beat Blaine by 37EVs
1888: 25% of EVs =100 => Harrison beat Cleveland by 65EVs
1896: 25% of EVs =112 => McKinley beat Bryan by 95EVs
1916: 25% of EVs =133 => Wilson beat Hughes by 23EVs
1948: 25% of EVs =133 => Truman beat Dewey by 114EVs
1960: 25% of EVs =134 => Kennedy beat Nixon by 84EVs
1968: 25% of EVs =135 => Nixon beat Humphrey by 110EVs
1976: 25% of EVs =135 => Carter beat Ford by 57EVs
2000: 25% of EVs =135 => Bush beat Gore by 5EVs

Now, I know this list looks long, but we're talking about 54 total elections.  This list contains only 19 elections.  One might not consider 25% a "landslide" in EVs, but, certainly, it's not "close".  So, in terms of EVs at least, only about 1/3rd of all elections are "close".  Only 7 of 54 elections did the winner win by a margin of 10% of the total EVs.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't think that electoral votes should be the only thing you look at when determining a landslide. What if you only barely won all the states you won?

[millwx]

I don't think that electoral votes should be the only thing you look at when determining a landslide. What if you only barely won all the states you won?

I entirely agree.  But, just FYI, in regards to my response I posted, I was just keying off of what "King" used, since he started this thread.  He used EVs.

In the popular vote landslides are far less frequent.  While only 7 elections ever have had an EV gap of less than 10%, there have been 13 just last century with a PV margin less than 10%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have always said Bush is going to win easily this November. Remember guys the election is November 2nd, not tomorrow.

and what makes you think the diehard ABBers will change their minds?

[Josh/Devilman88]

This is the very best Bush can do... But it won't happen...