In which county will Kerry do better this time?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Republicans could have a candidate with 70% approval ratings running against me running on a socialist platform, and I'd still win both of these in a landslide.

But my prediction is that Bronx beats Macon this time and is Kerry's top county in the country. Just because most of the few whites in the Bronx would be perfectly willing to vote for him. The few whites in Macon who voted for Gore won't be quite so willing to vote for Kerry. Bronx edges out narrowly.

[© tweed]

Macon.  Bush gets a boost (although minimal) in the Bronx from 9-11.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I vote for a darkhorse: Shannon, SD.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I vote for a darkhorse: Shannon, SD.

Knott, KY, and Logan, WV, are good contenders.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

maybe among predominately white counties, but didn't Gore get "only" about 70% in those? He easily top 85% in the three mentioned here.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

maybe among predominately white counties, but didn't Gore get "only" about 70% in those?

Gore had a lot of baggage. I think this time the Democrats will make the biggest gains among poor rural whites.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry will win every precinct in Macon (even the white ones. And yes there *are* white ones... well... just about) and has a legit shot at *90%* there (from what I've heard the Yella' Dawg's in Notasulga like Edwards).

Kerry will win about 85% in the Brox... 9-11 will give Bush a tiny, tiny boost I reckon...

Shannon is a legit longshot... as there's a competative Senate race *and* a competative House race in SD...

Kerry appears to be doing a *lot* better in Appalachia than Gore... counties to watch are Elliott, Knott, Logan and McDowell. Not sure which of those will be Kerry best Appalachian county.
Probably Elliott.

Oh and there's a chance that Elliott might be one of Kerry's very best nationally... it's got a very small population and is ultra Democrat (and in 1999 Patton cracked 85% there. Sure that was in a landslide statewide, but Chandler won 78% there in 2003...)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In 1999 Paul Patton actually did worse in Appalachia than other Democrats. Despite winning statewide in a landslide he lost some Democratic counties in Appalachia because of his silly workers' comp "reforms".

He even came in third place in one county.

I voted for Gatewood Galbraith in that election.