Canadian Conservative merger worked
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Canadian Conservative merger worked
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Author Topic: Canadian Conservative merger worked  (Read 1407 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: June 29, 2004, 02:37:57 PM »

It looks like a good many former PC's decided to vote Liberal yesterday. I decided to try this what-if and see ahat would have happened had the merger worked better. I took the numbers from the CBC and applied the following changes to them:
In the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec, I increased the Conservative vote by 10% (of the conservative vote, not the total vote) and subtracted the same amount from the Liberals.  I used 5% elsewhere in Canada.  (This distorted the total vote in the Praries where blue dominates, but I wasn't trying for a reflection of the national popular vote.)

Net Effect:
LPC -9
CPC +7
NDP +2

Alberta became solid blue.
Martin would have three more ministers to replace for his minority government.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2004, 04:24:32 AM »

Actually the CPC lost a load of old Reform/CA voters in British Columbia.

The Sask results were distorted by:

1) the Child Porn slur
2) vote splitting to a horrific degree
3) really, really, really strange riding boundaries
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