2004 User Predictions - Technical

[Dave Leip]

Note that I have upgraded the user prediction pages.  Please submit bugs and/or post any problems here.
Thanks,
Dave

[opebo]

Note that I have upgraded the user prediction pages.  Please submit bugs and/or post any problems here.
Thanks,
Dave

I filled out the registration form and entered my 'code', but it says my account is not set up.. can't post a prediction.

[Dave Leip]

Hi,
Sorry for the difficulty.  Can you please be more specific?  When you entered the enable code, did you get an error message?  

Once you enter the code, you should get this message:

User Prediction and Polls Comments successfully enabled.
If you have an old User Prediction, upgrade it to the new database Login

Then, once you log in, I had this message
Note: This account is not enabled for full site membership.
(but I realize that it is confusing and have changed it).  The important point is that cookies must be allowed by your browser in order to post predictions (this is how the login information is remembered).  Can you describe what the error is when you try to post a prediction?

Thanks,
Dave

[Fritz]

Dave,

I am not able to log in to update my prediction.  I am being told that my password is incorrect.  I am sure I typed the correct password.  I have clicked the forgotten password link, but have not received an e-mail response.  My user name is JLD.  Thanks Dave!

[Dave Leip]

Fritz - you need to register for the free atlas membership (I've created this new overall membership for polls, user predictions, and the (soon to be available) mock election.  The reg page is:

https://uselectionatlas.org/members.php?type=form

Dave

[ilikeverin]

Fritz - you need to register for the free atlas membership (I've created this new overall membership for polls, user predictions, and the (soon to be available) mock election.  The reg page is:

What are we going to be doing with the mock election?  Can you give any hints?

[PrisonerOfHope]

I've read that CO has gotten a measure on Nov. ballot for proportional appointment of electors that would take immediate effect for 2004 EC vote if it passes.   Any chance this scenario can be modeled?  How can we best reflect the situation in interim?

[Dave Leip]

The Predictions Page now has most recent compiled maps and data on the prediction home page.  I used the most recent 500 - about three weeks worth.  (note, that only one prediction per user is included in the compiled version.  If more than one version from any one user was created in the time frame, only the most recent of those is included in the calculations).
Dave

[CARLHAYDEN]

A 'technical' prediction which may astound many when the first election results are announced is the size of the 'early; (used to be called 'absentee') vote and its significant difference from the precinct vote.

In many areas, the 'early' vote is counted before the precinct votes as those votes are already in the hands of the election officials in the central (usually county) voting offices.

This differentiation may be particularly accute if Democrat election officials may try to keep polling places with heabily Democrat registration open later than the times provided for by law (they did this in St. Louis in 2000).

[qwerty]

Dave, there are a few predictions with all red states or all blue states, can you delete these so they don't offset the average map on the front page?

[Napoleon XIV]

There appears to be some sort of weird bug that just turned my map (and my friend's) into a sea of blue (with the exception of CD 1 and 2 in ME for some reason).

I'm guessing it's a bug, because it's showing the Fish voting for Bush too...

[kevinatcausa]

The median calculations for the last 500 predictions seem a bit off. 

Since the predictions don't allow for choices other than Kerry and Bush, all predictions should have (Bush+Kerry)=538, and the same should hold true for the median (which is the average of the middle two).  However, the current median has both candidates below 269.