GusNews election night special

[Gustaf]

NOTE: this is NOT based on actual voter residencies (although it has been factored in to an extent), but sort of on how it would probably go. Projections are based off on final preferences, rather than first ones.

[Gustaf]

First states projected for Gustaf:



Red is used for Nym90 (he's the Democrat) and Blue for me (I like blue and is too lazy to change the colour, at least for the moment...)

[Nym90]

So StevenNick won't get any states? Hehe.

This will be cool though, to have the states come in in the order that they normally would.

[7,052,770]

Since Bandit is the only Kentuckian, and he voted Nym90, I'd think Kentucky should be red.

[Nym90]

He's going on how he thinks it would happen in real life though, given the percentages of the vote each candidate is getting.

[Gustaf]

So StevenNick won't get any states? Hehe.

This will be cool though, to have the states come in in the order that they normally would.

Precisely.

And, no he won't, too messy... sorry Steven, you probably would actually win a lot of conservative states but it might give us no electoral majority and other weird effects. This was easier.

Note: Florida was deemed too close to call.

[Nym90]

NH called already? Uh oh. I'm not in good shape.

[Gustaf]

NH called already? Uh oh. I'm not in good shape.

A libertairan state like NH would be strong for me, I think. You will run stronger in the South and Midwest to make it up though. And Harry, indivdual votes don't count for GusNews...itäs like Nym said.



West Virginia called for the president, early results showing him getting more than 60% of the vote there. North Carolina called for Gustaf, but the margin being a lot smaller than expected. Ohio deemed too close to call, Florida also remaining too close to call.

[Nym90]

True enough, the UAC leans more libertarian, so NH is a good state for them.

Yeah, WV would go for me, especially with Al.

[Gustaf]

Ohio finally called for the president, Florida for Gustaf. New Jersey, somewhat surprisingly, deemed to close to call.

EV: Gustaf leads, 145-134

[Nym90]

Ooooo...is this going to be another 270-268 race? Hehe. I know how fond of those you are.

[Gustaf]

Ooooo...is this going to be another 270-268 race? Hehe. I know how fond of those you are.

[Gustaf]

9:30 update: Arkansas called for President Nym90. New Jersey remains to close to call.

EV: Nym90 140

      Gustaf 145

Map:



Btw, perhaps this, imaginary, EC-system can be understood to work inthe folowing way: only the 2 top candidates nationally have their votes counted, all others get their 2nd preferences counted instead, regardless of the stands in the state.  This is more in key with our actual system. So think of it working that way.

[Nym90]

Nice job, Gus. Let me guess...you already have a 270-268 Gustaf victory and a 270-268 Nym90 victory worked out, and it's going to be one of those.

[Gustaf]

Nice job, Gus. Let me guess...you already have a 270-268 Gustaf victory and a 270-268 Nym90 victory worked out, and it's going to be one of those.

No, no...of course not...

[Brambila]

I think you can call California as well by now

[Gustaf]

10:00 PM update: A number of states still too close to call.



Gustaf leads 194-171

[Gustaf]

11:00 PM update: New Jersey is surpisingly called for Gustaf. So are Idaho, Montana and Utah. Iowa is called for president Nym90. Pennsylvania, Alabama, Lousiana, Wisconsin and New Mexico remain too close to call. Nevada is added to the list of too close to call states.

[Gustaf]

We now go live to studio for analyses.

So, John analysis-guy, what's your take on all this?

Well, so far it seems like the UAC candidate, SecState Gustaf, is running away with this. However, a number of states are still close, and this race could fall either way. GusNews also have a time-honoured tradition of retracting states.

The pattern we can see so far is that Gustaf has made huge inroads into the Northeast, whereas Democratic support is holding up much better in the Mideast and Midwest, especially in the Rustbelt where the more poulist leanings of the Democratic ticket have played out well. The Southeast seems somewhat split, with parts if it clearly leaning Democratically, and other parts going in the opposite direction. This seems to be due to 2 factors; the populism of Nym90 v the social liberalism of Gustaf works in the former's favour. But the general hostility towards the administration in the Southeast, aided by sour grapes from the infamous senatorial election in which Harry got elected works against him.

[Gustaf]

12:00 PM update: California is somewhat surprisingly too close to call. So is Washington. Oregon is called for Gustaf, as is Pennsylvania, finally. Hawaii is called for President Nym90.

Gustaf now leads 249-182

[Gustaf]

Before I go to bed...

00:30 AM update: Alabama, Nevada and New Mexico all called for Gustaf.

Gustaf now leads 268-182




(also, honouring the tradition, 1 state will be recalled tomorrow. Also honouring the tradition, the election will be called after it's actually decided! )

[Gustaf]

OK, here we go! 1:00 AM update: Alaska, and thus the election is called for SecState Gustaf! ALso, Tennessee, where Don ran an amazing campaign, is retracted from President Nym90 and now coloured grey.

Gustaf wins, 271-171

[Gustaf]

Final update: The remaining tossups are all called for Gustaf, Lousiana, Washington, California and Wisconsin that is.

Final EV tally: Gustaf wins 367-171

PV tally:

Gustaf: 53.23%

Nym90: 45.16%



I will defend this map later if need be.

[© tweed]

Nym would take the midwest and California

[Gustaf]

Nym would take the midwest and California

I won by around 10%. Gore won CA by 12%. I would gain more in the pacific and Northeast than elsewhere I think. Also, in fantasy politics, the Democrats are almost extinct in the Pacific region, whereas they dominate the Mideast and Midwest. Minnesota is my home state and also the home state of Ilikeverin, a popular UAC governor who also would convince a lot of moderate left-wingers to vote for me. Wisconsin is a little more doubtful, Texasgurl would swing a lot of votes against me there. It's also Nym's birthplace...still, it was close in 2000 and will be again this year. With a national win of almost 10% I took it in a whisker.