Hypothetical Scenario- President Edwards!

[Fritz]

Here is an interesting little scenario.  Unlikely, granted, but not impossible.

On election night, we have a 269-269 tie.  Now, everyone assumes that if that happens, Bush automatically wins in the House.  In the House election, each state’s congressional delegation casts one vote for their state, with a majority of the states needed to win- that is, 26.

Current House state delegations majority party:
Republican- 29 states
Democrat- 16 states
Independent- 1 state (Vermont- count as Dem)
Even split- 4 states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Mississippi, Texas)

It’s a fairly safe bet that after this election, Texas joins the Republican majority states.

Let’s assume the Democrats pick up one seat in each of these states: Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nevada, South Carolina.

This has the effect of switching these states from Republican to Democrat: CT, IL, LA, NV.

 This state switches from even split to Democrat: MN

These states switch from Republican to even split: AZ, KY, SC.

Other than Texas, the Republicans made no gains that had the effect of changing the majority party of the states congressional delegation.  

So now we have, counting Vermont for the Democrats:

Republican- 23 states
Democrat- 22 states
Even split- 5 states

Here is a map:


Now, lets assume the Presidential election that produced the 269-269 tie looked like this:



So here is what we have, in my scenario:

18 states voted for Bush/have Republican majorities
5 states voted for Kerry/have Republican majorities
6 states voted for Bush/have Democrat majorities
16 states voted for Kerry/have Democrat majorities
4 states voted for Bush/have no majority
1 state voted for Kerry/has no majority

So, what would happen?  If we also had elected a Democrat majority Senate, we might end up with PRESIDENT EDWARDS!  If the House could not break the deadlock.

[© tweed]

I thought the Senate PPT becomes president if the house can't break the vote?