Farm States

[classical liberal]

Bush seems to be down about ten points in almost every farm state (ID, SD, ND, OK, etc).  With todays announcement that the Bush administration is imposing new environmental standards on farm equipment grade diesel fuel, and enough undecideds in recent polls to make some of these states competitive (the most recent poll of OK gave that if three fourths of the undecideds borke against the incumbent, Kerry would win) might the solidly Republican farming areas, both in entire farm states and in swing states with farming areas, be an "X factor" in this race?

[WMS]

This is Populist Country, so it depends on whether they vote more on morals or economics. I suspect the farm bribery and vote solidification bill err, the price supports for good, decent, hardworking huge agribusinesses small farmers will be enough to assuage the economic worries, and they'll vote on morals and go for Bush as usual.

Or I could be totally wrong. We'll find out.

[agcatter]

yeah, Kerry is going to sweep the farm belt.  Bhahahahah.

[WalterMitty]

slightly off ropic:  some of these axioms in politics are about as dumb as baseball tradtions.

EVERY election is DIFFERENT.  that '3/4 of undecideds break for the challenger' is just as stupid as sacrifice bunts are in baseball.  in other words, people accept it without questioning it.

[nclib]

Kerry, of course, isn't going to win the Farm Belt. But he could get closer than Gore. Side note, does anybody think NE-2 could be competitive (i.e. could Kerry steal an EV here)?

[agcatter]

only in Dem dreams

[Giant Saguaro]

Tornado belt and farm belt are still safe for Bush. Now if Kerry were 20+ ahead in normally Democratic Iowa or Minnesota (Kerry, apparently, is just slightly ahead in those areas), then I might be concerned. Both have dipped in lots of areas, but in the end I think they'll line up about where we'd expect. Kerry's liberalism will still be a huge turn-off in the tornado belt and farm belt, and if the economy keeps up at this rate, he won't have to worry.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Kerry, of course, isn't going to win the Farm Belt. But he could get closer than Gore. Side note, does anybody think NE-2 could be competitive (i.e. could Kerry steal an EV here)?

Clinton was close in SD both times, but the rest are way out of reach.  Gore wasn't even cracking 30% in WY, ID, and UT...and Bush was getting 60% in OK, ND, and NE.  SD and that NE congressional district are the only ones Kerry could even dream about.  

[pieman]

It appears that the new diesel regulations go into effect over a number of years, primarily starting in 2007. Diesel engine manufacturers are to build more efficient engines and refiners are to supply low sulphur fuel.


There appears to be little immediate economic effect to drive any kind of revolt. The cost of the low sulphur diesel is only supposed to be a couple of cents a gallon more expensive.

I don't see where this will have much negative effect, if any on the Farm belt.

   

[© tweed]

Kerry doesn't have a chance in the states mentioned.  It might help Daschle and Dorgan in the senate though.

[ilikeverin]

But he could get closer than Gore. Side note, does anybody think NE-2 could be competitive (i.e. could Kerry steal an EV here)?

Talk to RightWingNut about that

[Reaganfan]

Polls are polls. Bush does not go by polls.

[klrbzzz]

Most of the farmers in Northern KY I know are voting for Bush .... as they put it, the lesser of two evils.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Most of the farmers in Northern KY I know are voting for Bush .... as they put it, the lesser of two evils.

I don't know even one farmer in Northern Kentucky who likes Bush.

[Lunar]

Can you give up on your Kerry-winning-Kentucky thing?  Is it that hard to believe that the "people I know" measurement isn't as accurate as actual voting totals, registration numbers, and other facts like population density etc. that tilt it towards the GOP?

Because you don't like Bush, the people who will tell you who they are voting and whom you hang out with probably also don't like Bush.  You probably DO know someone who likes Bush, but they haven't told you their party registration.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Can you give up on your Kerry-winning-Kentucky thing?

I won't do that until he either 1) does something incredibly stupid, or 2) loses Kentucky, or 3) both.

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Yes, it is that hard to believe.

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What's to prevent them from doing so? It's not like I'm gonna punch them or anything, so there's not much point in them hiding their party affiliation.

[Lunar]

I don't walk up to everyone I know and announce that I'm an independent.  Similarly, people don't do the opposite.  I have no idea how most of my various relatives are voting.

Why do you think your "people I know" argument is complete?  How many people have announced their party affiliation to you?  15?  How is that better than polls and the rest of that stuff?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why do you think your "people I know" argument is complete?

Because people complain about Bush without me even having to bring it up.

[Lunar]

Because people complain about Bush without me even having to bring it up.

But you hang out with a liberal crowd.  That doesn't answer my question you quoted though.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

But you hang out with a liberal crowd.

Since when does Campbell County, KY, have a "liberal crowd"?

[Lunar]

Ok, if you feel the whole area is conservative, why do you get the feeling that it is going for Kerry?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Because Bush is too conservative even for Northern Kentucky.

[WalterMitty]

bandit, do you have a prediction map?  id love to see it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I have one where Kerry wins in a landslide.

But that will change if he picks someone silly like Evan Bayh as a running mate.

[Reds4]

My guess is Bush wins Kentucky by 12 or more. I also think Kerry has no chance at all in SD, ND, MT, OK or any of those states. Question for you guys though, why is Iowa so much more democratic than NE and SD and those states when Iowa is a large farming state as well. Is Iowa trending to the republican side at all? Interested in input on this.