Florida

[nclib]

We probably have a thread on this somewhere, but I was wondering why everyone is so confident that Florida will go for Bush, especially in a 50-50 race. Yes, Jeb won easily in 2002, but state issues are different from national ones.

Also, could somebody please break down the politics of different parts of Florida. Please include social and economic liberalism/conservativism and what the important issues are to those regions. I know that the panhandle is conservative Republican; Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade are liberal Democratic minus the Cuban-Americans who are conservative Republicans. The rest of the state I'm trying to figure out. Thanks!

[StevenNick]

One of the only reasons Florida was so close in 2000 was because Joe Lieberman was on the ticket.  Lieberman attracted a lot of the older, retired Jewish voters in Florida.  They flocked to the polls for Gore and the first ever Jewish VP candidate.

This time around, Kerry will be the candidate.  He's probably the worst candidate the dems have run since the Mondale or Dukakis.  Not only will he not have Lieberman to bring Jewish voters to the polls, many more Jewish voters will cast their ballots for Bush than in 2000.  Polls have showed that Bush has made some significant gains among Jewish voters since 2000.

On top of that, Republicans have perfected their 72 hour get-out-the-vote task force since the 2002 midterms.  Bush's organization is so good that some of the republican organizers think they can add as much as 5 percent to whatever Bush is polling at the day before the election.

If the election is close, these two things could easily push Bush over the top.  My personal hunch is that John Kerry will collapse long before then and Bush will win in a walk, but I could be wrong.  But nailbiter or landslide, I think Bush is going to win Florida.

[Lunar]

He's probably the worst candidate the dems have run since the Mondale or Dukakis.

So....he's worse than Clinton and Gore?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We probably have a thread on this somewhere, but I was wondering why everyone is so confident that Florida will go for Bush, especially in a 50-50 race. Yes, Jeb won easily in 2002, but state issues are different from national ones.

Also, could somebody please break down the politics of different parts of Florida. Please include social and economic liberalism/conservativism and what the important issues are to those regions. I know that the panhandle is conservative Republican; Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade are liberal Democratic minus the Cuban-Americans who are conservative Republicans. The rest of the state I'm trying to figure out. Thanks!

I dunno Florida that well but...
The Western part of the Panhandle is the most Republican part of the South... the Eastern part swings about a bit...
Broward et al are liberal... er... that's about all I know... (but I know lots about Nova Scotia)

[The Vorlon]

We probably have a thread on this somewhere, but I was wondering why everyone is so confident that Florida will go for Bush, especially in a 50-50 race. Yes, Jeb won easily in 2002, but state issues are different from national ones.

Also, could somebody please break down the politics of different parts of Florida. Please include social and economic liberalism/conservativism and what the important issues are to those regions. I know that the panhandle is conservative Republican; Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade are liberal Democratic minus the Cuban-Americans who are conservative Republicans. The rest of the state I'm trying to figure out. Thanks!

NOTE ON FLORIDA POLLS

Florida is also a very tough state to poll.

1) Huge number of military families stationed overseas have florida as their official residence (no state income tax!)

2) About 18% are unable to (officially anyway) vote due to non-citizen status.

3) Many Seniors who live part of the year in Florida, part elsewhere may, or may not be Florida residents for voting purposes.

4) About 4% of the populaton as felons/ex-felons cannot vote.

5) Language issues with the large cuban/hispanic blocks can make polling difficult from a logistic point of view.

Be VERY careful which polls you look at about Florida.

Mason-Dixon was started in Florida, and is still largely based in Florida, and frankly have an almost god-like reputation for being just about the only ones able to consistently poll the state accurately.

[© tweed]

He's probably the worst candidate the dems have run since the Mondale or Dukakis.

So....he's worse than Clinton and Gore?

Yes, he is

[pieman]

Kerry is unlikely to do as well in the northern part of Florida as Gore did because Gore was from the South and the Gore/Lieberman ticket was perceived to be more socially conservative than Kerry will be. The northern part of Florida votes with the Southern bloc. See the following article:  The Ten Regions of US Politics

Also, Voter registration has turned more GOP from a DEM advantage of 33-38 to a GOP advantage of 37-36. See the following article on party affiliation. Pew Research Party Registration

[ShapeShifter]

Kerry is unlikely to do as well in the northern part of Florida as Gore did because Gore was from the South and the Gore/Lieberman ticket was perceived to be more socially conservative than Kerry will be. The northern part of Florida votes with the Southern bloc. See the following article:  The Ten Regions of US Politics

Also, Voter registration has turned more GOP from a DEM advantage of 33-38 to a GOP advantage of 37-36. See the following article on party affiliation. Pew Research Party Registration

There are more Democrats than Republicans in Florida. Check the Voter Registration thread to see the number. I believe it to be a 5 percent advantage in a head-to-head count.

[pieman]

I checked out the Voter reistation statistics at the Florida Sec of State's website and found the following info:

November 2000:  GOP registration 3,469,922; DEM registration 3,850,527; Total registration 8,870,147 resulting in 39.1% GOP/43.4% DEM.
A 4.3% DEM advantage in Nov 2000.

Feb 2004: GOP registration 3,608,886; DEM registration 3,943,137; Total registration 9,406,019 resulting in 38.3%GOP/41.9% DEM.
A 3.6% DEM advantage in Feb 2004.

A net change of 0.7% to the GOP, much different than the Pew Reseach numbers I cited above.

Hardly enough to support my assertion that registration is a major factor for a Bush win. My Bad.  

[The Vorlon]

I checked out the Voter reistation statistics at the Florida Sec of State's website and found the following info:

November 2000:  GOP registration 3,469,922; DEM registration 3,850,527; Total registration 8,870,147 resulting in 39.1% GOP/43.4% DEM.
A 4.3% DEM advantage in Nov 2000.

Feb 2004: GOP registration 3,608,886; DEM registration 3,943,137; Total registration 9,406,019 resulting in 38.3%GOP/41.9% DEM.
A 3.6% DEM advantage in Feb 2004.

A net change of 0.7% to the GOP, much different than the Pew Reseach numbers I cited above.

Hardly enough to support my assertion that registration is a major factor for a Bush win. My Bad.  

Using voter ID is... tricky....

There are basically two ways of doing it, and both ways have substantial problems....

Going by the actual voter registration data from the secretarry of state, would, at first blush, seem to be the way to go.  

The problem with simply using that data is that many people (especially in the deep south) registered as a democrat many many years ago, never bothered to change their registration,  and now self identify as Republicans.

Similarly, in the North East, many who registered as Republicans many years ago are still on the books as Republicans, but self identify as Dewmocrats now.

This explains why voting patterns as party registration do not line up anywhere near as close as one would expect.

The alternate method, essentailly doing a big poll and asking people which party they think of themselves as belonging to is also problematic.  

Firstly. depending on the news of the day/President of the time, you will likely get different answers at different times.

Secondly, any result regarding Party ID from a poll will have a margin or error, and if you weight subsequent polling data based upon the previous polls data, you get error propagation issues which are hard to resolve.

The "correct" answere here is that both PEW and the Fllorida Sec of State are both right and wrong at the same time.

A third complication is that the presidewntial Exit polling (usually a very good raw data source) done in 2000 by VNS has some...minor issues that call into question the entire sample.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry is unlikely to do as well in the northern part of Florida as Gore did because Gore was from the South and the Gore/Lieberman ticket was perceived to be more socially conservative than Kerry will be. The northern part of Florida votes with the Southern bloc. See the following article:  The Ten Regions of US Politics

Also, Voter registration has turned more GOP from a DEM advantage of 33-38 to a GOP advantage of 37-36. See the following article on party affiliation. Pew Research Party Registration

Gore being from TN didn't help him *anywhere* because he wasn't seen as being from TN...
"From DC not Tennessee"...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In central Florida, it appears there's a basic urban/rural divide, the large cities like Tampa and Orlando being heavily Democratic, the rural parts being Republican. The suburbs are pretty varied. And of course there's Gainesville, a college town and Democratic stronghold, and various minority heavy areas that swing Democratic.

Actually from what I've seen, the eastern and western parts of the panhandle are heavily Republican. The central part is a bit of a swing region, probably because it contains Tallahassee, which is a pretty liberal city for the region, and light years ahead of Jacksonville. Even though the southern counties are heavily Democratic minus the Cubans, this actually only applies to the southeast. The southwest side (Lee, Collier, Monroe) is actually extremely heavily Republican (although Gore was able to very narrowly carry Monroe county and it appears that it might be changing). I have no clue why this is, but fortunately that area isn't too heavily populated.

I don't count on Kerry losing Florida because Jeb will try to steal it again.

[pieman]

I guess my point is that Kerry is even less of a social conservative than Gore/Lieberman, as well as having no connection to the South. Hence, Kerry will do even worse than Gore in the South. Bush's policies have also been at least somewhat economically liberal.

Doesn't the South typically like Social conservative/economic liberals?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In central Florida, it appears there's a basic urban/rural divide, the large cities like Tampa and Orlando being heavily Democratic, the rural parts being Republican. The suburbs are pretty varied. And of course there's Gainesville, a college town and Democratic stronghold, and various minority heavy areas that swing Democratic.

Actually from what I've seen, the eastern and western parts of the panhandle are heavily Republican. The central part is a bit of a swing region, probably because it contains Tallahassee, which is a pretty liberal city for the region, and light years ahead of Jacksonville. Even though the southern counties are heavily Democratic minus the Cubans, this actually only applies to the southeast. The southwest side (Lee, Collier, Monroe) is actually extremely heavily Republican (although Gore was able to very narrowly carry Monroe county and it appears that it might be changing). I have no clue why this is, but fortunately that area isn't too heavily populated.

I don't count on Kerry losing Florida because Jeb will try to steal it again.

What d'ya mean by the Panhandle? What you are calling the Central Panhandle, I think of as the Eastern Panhandle...
I'll post a few FL county maps (2002GUB, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1988


1992


1996


2000


2002GUB

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I guess my point is that Kerry is even less of a social conservative than Gore/Lieberman, as well as having no connection to the South. Hence, Kerry will do even worse than Gore in the South. Bush's policies have also been at least somewhat economically liberal.

Doesn't the South typically like Social conservative/economic liberals?

First off, Bush is no economic liberal... fiscally liberal (ie: loose with money) maybe... economically liberal... No, No, No.
Secondly, the South isn't a monolithic bloc and Southern voters are no more sectional than voters in the rest of the US...

[bejkuy]

Orlando and Tampa are NOT heavily Democratic.  If anything they lean slightly Dem.

[© tweed]

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Why the Dems so strong in the eastern panhandle?

[pieman]

I guess my point is that Kerry is even less of a social conservative than Gore/Lieberman, as well as having no connection to the South. Hence, Kerry will do even worse than Gore in the South. Bush's policies have also been at least somewhat economically liberal.

Doesn't the South typically like Social conservative/economic liberals?

First off, Bush is no economic liberal... fiscally liberal (ie: loose with money) maybe... economically liberal... No, No, No.
Secondly, the South isn't a monolithic bloc and Southern voters are no more sectional than voters in the rest of the US...

I admit my word choice was poor. I meant Bush has been willing to increase spending on government programs such as Medicare etc. and has increased Government spending as a whole. Which I believe is normally described as a fiscal liberal as it relates to spending. Obviously Bush's tax cuts would not be considered fiscally liberal.

If you are saying that the voter pool is homogeneous across the US, I disagree. Clearly, various regions tend to emphasize different issues. Otherwise there would be no Red state/Blue state disparity.

I would agree, however, that all of or even a vast majority of the voters in the South do not vote the same way. Just like voters in other regions don't vote the same way.    

I would be interested in feedback on the relative strength of a candidate in the South that is socially conservative and fiscally liberal. Wouldn't that describe a candiate such as Zell Miller- D-GA?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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Why the Dems so strong in the eastern panhandle?

It's like South West GA: Blacks and Yella' Dawg's

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There *are* regional differences... often within states... but they are much more complex than"The South". My theory anyways.
---
Generally speaking a socially conservative/economically leftish candidate does well in large parts of the old CSA... but not all.
Cobb County, GA is 'nowt like Buchanan County, VA.

[© tweed]

It's like South West GA: Blacks and Yella' Dawg's

but thye won some counties that Gore lost in 2000---Gore lost by 0% and the Dem lost by 13% in the gov. race.

[ElCidGOP]

Life is pretty good in FLA right now, especially in Tampa.  The state budget is not in the red, thanks to Jeb Bush and the GOP legislature.  There is no state tax, no massive car tax, and generally the cost of living is good.  The economy is booming.  Houses are going up like gangbusters.  Everyone owns a house.  New businesses and corporations are locating to FLA in large numbers.  Jeb is a very popular governer.  Florida is also very conservative socially, there are some exceptions to this though.  All of this bodes well for Bush.  Kerry would be wise to concentrate his efforts at Ohio, which is in a totally different position than Florida.  I think Florida is a lock for W.  Plus, I live in Tampa, ground zero for the election and I have not seen a Kerry add in two weeks, maybe longer but I have seen tons of Bush ads.  

Despite all of this, W is having a bad couple of days, especially with that recent CBS/NYT poll.  I am in the dumps.  I am up one day, down the next.  I wish I didn't care.

[The Vorlon]

Life is pretty good in FLA right now, especially in Tampa.  The state budget is not in the red, thanks to Jeb Bush and the GOP legislature.  There is no state tax, no massive car tax, and generally the cost of living is good.  The economy is booming.  Houses are going up like gangbusters.  Everyone owns a house.  New businesses and corporations are locating to FLA in large numbers.  Jeb is a very popular governer.  Florida is also very conservative socially, there are some exceptions to this though.  All of this bodes well for Bush.  Kerry would be wise to concentrate his efforts at Ohio, which is in a totally different position than Florida.  I think Florida is a lock for W.  Plus, I live in Tampa, ground zero for the election and I have not seen a Kerry add in two weeks, maybe longer but I have seen tons of Bush ads.  

Despite all of this, W is having a bad couple of days, especially with that recent CBS/NYT poll.  I am in the dumps.  I am up one day, down the next.  I wish I didn't care.

If it makes you feel better the CBS/NYTimes poll is a piece of total %^%%^

They weighted by party ID and came up with the following distribution:

Independants   36.47%
Democrats   34.84%
Republicans  28.69%

This weigh put Kerry up 45.6% to 44.2%

Using the CBS data and the Rasmussen weighting formula would have put Bush up 46.6% to 44.5% (+2.1%)

Using the CBS data and the Zogby weighting formula would have put bush up 46.8% to 44.1% (+2.7%)

Using the CBS data and the Battleground weighting formula would have put bush up 48.1% to 43.4% (+4.7%)

Another bright note is that while Bush is indeed collapsing in the rustbelt states, he will likely still likely carry the popular vote while losing the electoral college.

A moral victory is better than no victory at all

[Gustaf]

Life is pretty good in FLA right now, especially in Tampa.  The state budget is not in the red, thanks to Jeb Bush and the GOP legislature.  There is no state tax, no massive car tax, and generally the cost of living is good.  The economy is booming.  Houses are going up like gangbusters.  Everyone owns a house.  New businesses and corporations are locating to FLA in large numbers.  Jeb is a very popular governer.  Florida is also very conservative socially, there are some exceptions to this though.  All of this bodes well for Bush.  Kerry would be wise to concentrate his efforts at Ohio, which is in a totally different position than Florida.  I think Florida is a lock for W.  Plus, I live in Tampa, ground zero for the election and I have not seen a Kerry add in two weeks, maybe longer but I have seen tons of Bush ads.  

Despite all of this, W is having a bad couple of days, especially with that recent CBS/NYT poll.  I am in the dumps.  I am up one day, down the next.  I wish I didn't care.

If it makes you feel better the CBS/NYTimes poll is a piece of total %^%%^

They weighted by party ID and came up with the following distribution:

Independants   36.47%
Democrats   34.84%
Republicans  28.69%

This weigh put Kerry up 45.6% to 44.2%

Using the CBS data and the Rasmussen weighting formula would have put Bush up 46.6% to 44.5% (+2.1%)

Using the CBS data and the Zogby weighting formula would have put bush up 46.8% to 44.1% (+2.7%)

Using the CBS data and the Battleground weighting formula would have put bush up 48.1% to 43.4% (+4.7%)

Another bright note is that while Bush is indeed collapsing in the rustbelt states, he will likely still likely carry the popular vote while losing the electoral college.

A moral victory is better than no victory at all

What have I missed? What collapse?