kerry must target the southwest? surely

[nomorelies]

shouldnt the democrats start looking at nevada, colorado, arizona and new mexico. the immigration is now hitting 1 million a month which shows that the borders are way to slack. suely Billrichardson needs to be in there campaigning for kerry. this may be the reason why kerry might pick mcCain - whos bitter after 2000- as it could get help him win arizona, sure up new mexico, sneak nevada, get new hampshire back, and its happy days. surely this is the move?

[JohnFKennedy]

shouldnt the democrats start looking at nevada, colorado, arizona and new mexico. the immigration is now hitting 1 million a month which shows that the borders are way to slack. suely Billrichardson needs to be in there campaigning for kerry. this may be the reason why kerry might pick mcCain - whos bitter after 2000- as it could get help him win arizona, sure up new mexico, sneak nevada, get new hampshire back, and its happy days. surely this is the move?

McCain wouldn't accept though.

[nomorelies]

but is it a strategy to seriously look at;the southwest?

[HoopsCubs]

shouldnt the democrats start looking at nevada, colorado, arizona and new mexico. the immigration is now hitting 1 million a month which shows that the borders are way to slack. suely Billrichardson needs to be in there campaigning for kerry. this may be the reason why kerry might pick mcCain - whos bitter after 2000- as it could get help him win arizona, sure up new mexico, sneak nevada, get new hampshire back, and its happy days. surely this is the move?

I think the Kerry team knows that the only Bush 2000 states that are somewhat in play are OH, NH, WV, AZ, NV.  

I think Kerry and his team are kidding themselves in MO, AR and VA.

FL is too weird for me to understand. My inkling is that the state has trended right since 2000, and that the President would win by at least 4 percentage points, but then I see talk that many Latin Americans (not Cuban-Americans) who voted Bush in 2000, are more apt to vote Democrat in 2004, so I am not sure what to think.

At any rate, even though he has denied interest in the job, and wants to complete his term as Governor, the smartest move for John Kerry to make in my opinion is to pick Bill Richardson as his running mate.


Hoops

[nomorelies]

bill richardson is a good man, anfd shaun hannity finds it hard to go for him. bill also knows the north koreans so understands abit about terrorism. florida is weid, is it voter apathy, or theinfluence of ged bush?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

shouldnt the democrats start looking at nevada, colorado, arizona and new mexico. the immigration is now hitting 1 million a month which shows that the borders are way to slack. suely Billrichardson needs to be in there campaigning for kerry. this may be the reason why kerry might pick mcCain - whos bitter after 2000- as it could get help him win arizona, sure up new mexico, sneak nevada, get new hampshire back, and its happy days. surely this is the move?

What they would gain in Arizona, they would lose elsewhere by virtue of turning their ticket into Bush-Lite/Bush-Dry.

[zachman]

McCain would not be spun as Bush-lite. If he were on the ticket he would be a harsh critic of the President, instead of the equivalent of a Bush-lite democrat, which his critiscisms are equivalent to right now.

The great thing about winning the West is that you can start gaining electoral votes about 10 at a time (5 in Nevada's case), the odds of Kerry getting one or two positive returns are as great as the odds of getting two 20+ blocks in Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania.

[angus]

What they would gain in Arizona, they would lose elsewhere by virtue of turning their ticket into Bush-Lite/Bush-Dry.

I was thinking more of Bush-dry/Bush-lite.

[© tweed]

When I first saw this guy's screen name, I thought is was 'Nomo Relies', but now I see it is 'no more lies'.

[angus]

When I first saw this guy's screen name, I thought is was 'Nomo Relies', but now I see it is 'no more lies'.

ah, thank you.  And in the spirit of free freudian association, I must say the japanese name Nomo puts me in mind of baseball, of course.

If the yankees play the red sox in the AL championship series, and the red sox feel the need to ask one of the yankees pitchers to come and pitch for them, wouldn't it look like desperation on the part of the red sox?  Would the umps sense that desperation?  would it make them harsher judges of the sox than of the yankees?  Of course, if you're from Boston, it's standard fare to assume umpires are harder on the sox than any other team in the league.

successful candidates, like successful baseball clubs, will avoid any hint of desperation.

[© tweed]

Mets play in two hours 8 minutes.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Mets play in two hours 8 minutes.

LET'S GO METS!

[California Dreamer]

I am sure that Kerry will target the Southwest, as they will with the Midwest and Florida.

In a way the SW will likely be the Kerry 'backup plan'

Kerry can win just the Gore states plus Arizona and be the President....so its hard to ignore.

I know that many CA Kerry volunteers will be going into AZ and NV to help there.

[opebo]

Trying to keep NM is a great idea, and NV is worth targeting though it will probably go GOP.  But AZ is not worth too much trouble, and CO is solig GOP.

[ian]

shouldnt the democrats start looking at nevada, colorado, arizona and new mexico. the immigration is now hitting 1 million a month which shows that the borders are way to slack. suely Billrichardson needs to be in there campaigning for kerry. this may be the reason why kerry might pick mcCain - whos bitter after 2000- as it could get help him win arizona, sure up new mexico, sneak nevada, get new hampshire back, and its happy days. surely this is the move?

Colorado is out of reach.  Really.  Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada is where we need to shift our focus.  So other than the CO comment, I absolutely agree.  Kerry won't pick McCain.  McCain is a Republican, voting and campaigning for Bush, and AZ really isn't that important.  New Hampshire should be ours.  I am relatively sure that we are going to get it back.

[Ben.]

The Kerry campaign should spend some time on NM, AZ and NV… however out of these states NV and NM should probably have more time spent on them than AZ… however these “winnable” south-western states total only twenty electoral votes!

Ohio and West Virginia which are both state won by Bush in 2000 which are now vulnerable total 25 electoral votes by themselves, both Ohio and West Virginia are far more likely to switch to Kerry than Arizona which voted for Bush over Gore by a 6% (with 2.3% for Nader) as opposed to a Bush margin of 3.5% in Ohio added to this Arizona is traditionally a far more reliably republican state than Ohio and the fact that economic factors such as unemployment and taxation would seem to work in Kerry’s favour in OH would all suggest that Ohio with its bounty of 20 electoral votes if a far more “worthwile” investment than the three states of Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada… add to that that economic factors also favour Kerry and the Dems in WV this year and the need to sweep the south west is gone.

Unlike the South or Midwest there are no open senatorial races with retiring moderate democratic incumbents, Reid did appear vulnerable however he now seems secure.

When compared with the “Steel Triangle” (OH, WV and PA) it becomes clear to me that the “winnable” South West (NV, AZ and NM) offers far less prospect of success than the far more electoral vote rich “Steel Triangle”… add to that Florida’s 27 electoral votes  and the need to carry any south western states disappears completely, the fact is Kerry could lose all of the south west while wining OH and FL on top of all the Gore states (-NM) and win very solidly 302 electoral votes to 236 electoral votes…

In conclusion the south west does not offer sufficient incentive or opportunities for the Democrats to concentrate all their efforts there, at the possible detriment of the democratic campaign in WV, FL, PA and OH as well as other Midwestern states such as WI, MN and IA… in sort these states offer far more competitive odds for the democrats and offer far greater rewards in the form of electoral votes which the southwest does not yet offer… NV and NM should be fought for by the Dems however a south western strategy would fail as this year the democrats must fight in the Midwest and steel states in order to gain the electoral votes with which to win the white house, in short there is far too little “wiggle room” in a south western strategy to recommend that it should be adopted.                

[zachman]

Arizona will be too difficult for Kerry, Nevada seems worthwhile and Colorado seems worth trying. Nader got over 5% there and Bush barely broke 50% last time. Once Kerry can consolidate every ABBer he has a shot in Colorado.

[© tweed]

Mets play in two hours 8 minutes.

LET'S GO METS!

Hell yea!  They are winng 3-2 now, Matsui hit a home run in his first at bat (the first pitch too), and Glavine had an RBI single.

[MHS2002]

Go Braves! Although this year doesn't look as promising...

[© tweed]

Go Braves! Although this year doesn't look as promising...

We whipped you @$$ tonight.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If Kerry chose McCain, it would help him nationwide, not just in the Southwest (although he would win Arizona).   Which is good: I don't really think Kerry should campaign by targeting a handful of swing states.  He should run a national campaign, spending his time and money proportionally in all 15 or so swing states.  Certainly some of these states are in the Southwest.  But he'll have a better chance of winning a majority of electoral votes up for grabs if he makes a play for all of them.

[MHS2002]

Go Braves! Although this year doesn't look as promising...

We whipped you @$$ tonight.

Yeah, with Glavine nonethless. Looks like the streak of division titles may end.

[Ben.]

Guys! Guys! The winnable southwest (NM, AZ and NV) has 20 electoral votes.... OHIO, West Virginia and Pennsylvania have 46!... the other Midwestern "swing states" (WI, MN, MO and IA) have 38 electoral votes! and the other two possible Democratic pickups Florida and New Hampshire together have 31 electoral votes... in short the south west will become more competitive and more important in the future however in this election it is just not worth concentrating really heavily on those states, all factors (economic, social, historical, party strength) favour the Democrats much more strongly in places such as OH and WI than in states like Arizona... So in short if one area must have much of the Democratic Party’s resources concentrated then that area should be the "Steel States" and the "Midwest"...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

When I first saw this guy's screen name, I thought is was 'Nomo Relies', but now I see it is 'no more lies'.

ah, thank you.  And in the spirit of free freudian association, I must say the japanese name Nomo puts me in mind of baseball, of course.

If the yankees play the red sox in the AL championship series, and the red sox feel the need to ask one of the yankees pitchers to come and pitch for them, wouldn't it look like desperation on the part of the red sox?  Would the umps sense that desperation?  would it make them harsher judges of the sox than of the yankees?  Of course, if you're from Boston, it's standard fare to assume umpires are harder on the sox than any other team in the league.

successful candidates, like successful baseball clubs, will avoid any hint of desperation.

A more apt analogy would be if the White Sox were losing their fan base to the Cubs, and hired a Harry Caray impersonator to do their radio broadcasts, hoping to bring Cubs fans over.

[ian]

Arizona will be too difficult for Kerry, Nevada seems worthwhile and Colorado seems worth trying. Nader got over 5% there and Bush barely broke 50% last time. Once Kerry can consolidate every ABBer he has a shot in Colorado.

Polls say that we (Dems) are winning Arizona right now.  Why is it too difficult for Kerry?