Newsweek Poll: Tied

[California Dreamer]

Head to Head w/o Nader (registered voters)
Bush: 48
Kerry: 48

Head to Head w/Nader (registered voters)
Bush: 45
Kerry: 43
Nader: 5

M/E: 4%

Favorable /Unfavorable Approval Ratings:
Bush: 51/36
Kerry: 52/42

M/E: 3%

I am surprised after the bad week that Kerry has had and with terrorism in Spain that Bush didnt pull ahead...but there might be a bit of a delay factor.

I kinda think that between now and the conventions that the lead will swing back and forth.

Newsweek Article

[© tweed]

How I would have voted in this poll:

Kerry
Kerry
Unfavorable
Unfavorable

[Ben.]

That’s odd I though the national trend over the last week or so had been for Bush to be leading Kerry by around 3-6% nationwide?...well its only one poll…but looks like Bush’s bounce from the new ads may have dissipated…this is probably a very premature reaction…but hey I’ll stick my neck out….

When is Kerry going back on the air…and is there any way of knowing if it is in tandem with these other liberal groups?...if he can do that he can probably bounce himself up even higher…and then no doubt bush will counter attack and retake the lead…why do I have a horrible feeling the lead is going to be shifting in the polls for the entire time up until November?...

Kerry needs to be using ads to dispel the Bush campaigns misrepresentations of his record and define himself as a moderate in most voter’s eyes… now if that add that was hurriedly put up to refute the Bush attacks on his tax plans and record on nation security is anything to go by with a little refinement Kerry should do ok…          

[© tweed]

Some polls:

Newsweek: Bush 45-43%
Rasmussen: Bush 46-45%
CBS/NYT: Bush 46-38%

The rest are ancient.

[GOPhound]

I don't know if one poll is enough to conclude that Bush's bounce has stalled.  I believe that Kerry was ahead in this poll a few weeks ago, it shows that he's definitely slipped.

[angus]

Primaries gave him a good buzz.  That ended, for all practical purposes, on March 2.  Expect not to see greater than about 53 on a serious poll for either candidate from here on out.

[Ben.]

I don't know if one poll is enough to conclude that Bush's bounce has stalled.  I believe that Kerry was ahead in this poll a few weeks ago, it shows that he's definitely slipped.

Thats what i said man... i reckon the lead in the national polls will switch a fair bit perhaps all the way to November...

[12th Doctor]

That’s odd I though the national trend over the last week or so had been for Bush to be leading Kerry by around 3-6% nationwide?...well its only one poll…but looks like Bush’s bounce from the new ads may have dissipated…this is probably a very premature reaction…but hey I’ll stick my neck out….

When is Kerry going back on the air…and is there any way of knowing if it is in tandem with these other liberal groups?...if he can do that he can probably bounce himself up even higher…and then no doubt bush will counter attack and retake the lead…why do I have a horrible feeling the lead is going to be shifting in the polls for the entire time up until November?...

Kerry needs to be using ads to dispel the Bush campaigns misrepresentations of his record and define himself as a moderate in most voter’s eyes… now if that add that was hurriedly put up to refute the Bush attacks on his tax plans and record on nation security is anything to go by with a little refinement Kerry should do ok…          

Not really, the news week poll had Bush down last week didn't it?  This would still show a general upward treand for Bush wouldn't it?

[CTguy]

How I would have voted in this poll:

Kerry
Kerry
Unfavorable
Unfavorable

You would have voted for Kerry but given him an unfavorable rating?  Or am I misreading that?

[California Dreamer]

Head to Head w/o Nader (registered voters)
Bush: 48
Kerry: 48

Head to Head w/Nader (registered voters)
Bush: 45
Kerry: 43
Nader: 5

M/E: 4%

Favorable /Unfavorable Approval Ratings:
Bush: 51/36
Kerry: 52/42

M/E: 3%

I am surprised after the bad week that Kerry has had and with terrorism in Spain that Bush didnt pull ahead...but there might be a bit of a delay factor.

I kinda think that between now and the conventions that the lead will swing back and forth.

Newsweek Article

A few technical comments...

This poll was of 1006 ADULTS voters (as opposed to registered voters).  Typically a GOP candidate does 2 or 3 points better with "Registered" voters, and another 2 or 3better with "likely" voters (at least close to the actual election day)

I don't particularly quibble about not sampling down to"likely" voters 8 months out, since the meaning of "likely" here in March is a bit unclear.. at least to me..,

but not even limiting you sample to "registered" voters is damn near polling malpractice...

Doesn't ANYBODY know how to do a %^&^#$!!@#ing poll any more? (he mutters under his breath)

Newsweek did not poll close to the 2000 election, their last poll (about 7 weeks out) showed results very much at odds with the final outcome and other polls taken concurrently..

9/17/00
Newsweek Poll done nationally
Al Gore
54%
George W. Bush
41%

(actual outcome.. Gore + .51%)

dont you know how to read?

I posted seperate MofE because the Head to Head was registered voters (hence the higher MofE), but the approval ratings were all adults.

Also I am not sure that the 'likely voters' rules apply in this election because as the NPR poll the dems seem especially motivated this season.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I am surprised after the bad week that Kerry has had and with terrorism in Spain that Bush didnt pull ahead...

Why would terrorism in Spain help Bush?

Kerry's only had a bad week because of the total media blackout of his campaign.

[California Dreamer]

you need to read the fine print

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[California Dreamer]

dude...you need to relax. Do you think I am making this up?

try this link

if that doesnt work then take the online poll, after that it shows you the raw data of the NW poll (the fine print is under that)

[agcatter]

Vorlon,
You seem to be well versed on polls.  I read the part about adults as well.  Why do you think Newsweek or any other polling outfit would choose to poll all adults as opposed to registered voters?  I mean, it makes no sense to poll a large sample of people who cannot vote.  Seems goofy to me.

[California Dreamer]

as I quoted from the poll, NW used all adults for general questions (approval ratings, stuff about spain, etc) and registered voters for voting questions ("if the election were held today...".

it's quite simple,

[California Dreamer]

I agree entirely..the MOE was 4% (due to the fact that that some questions were based on registered voters)...as stated in the raw data in the link I posted.

It is reasonable to assume that the questions that used the subset of registered voters were the questions relating to voting.

This was all in the link I provided, but if you cant be bothered to click the link Here is the raw data...look closely at the bottom

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Since I work in marketing research I know a thing or two about polling as well, but in this case the proof that I am right is there in black and white, no room for interpretation

The 'tie' between Bush and Kerry is Registered voters and not 'all adults'

All Adults were for the other questions.

[California Dreamer]

you just dont know when to give up

the raw data clearly states how it uses registered voters for some questions (obviously the voting ones) and that those questions have 4%

the 'overall' poll and those questions where everyone is intereviews is 3%

Read the data...go to the link, etc etc

If you look this poll has many questions not related to voting (such as the issues with Spain). In essense its two polls, but in the case of voting they used registered voters as the data says.

you got a problem with how they footnote things...contact Newsweek.

[DARTH GOP]

Vorlin, California Dreamer, take a pill.. both of you...

Bad poll, too many democrats, outnumber GOP 400 to 320

too many women

ADULTS vs Register - 8 months out does it matter..?

                                   Newsweek Poll
                             Post-Madrid Bombings
              Princeton Survey Research Associates

     Final Topline Results
     (3/20/04)

     N = 1,006 adults, 18 and over
     Margin of error: plus or minus 3
     Interviewing dates: 3/18-19/04

     SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS:

     462  Men (plus or minus 6)
     544  Women (plus or minus 5)

     128  Ages 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
     341  Ages 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
     312  Ages 50-64 (plus or minus 7)
     225  Ages 65+ (plus or minus 9)

     321  Republicans (plus or minus 6)
     402  Democrats (plus or minus 7)
     283  Independents (plus or minus 7)

     331  Republican states (plus or minus 6)**
     403  Swing states (plus or minus 5)**
     271  Democratic states (plus or minus 6)**

     SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS SUBGROUPS:

     835  Fliers (plus or minus 4)

     401  Men fliers  (plus or minus 6)
     434  Women fliers (plus or minus 5)


     NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.

     **REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
     Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
                        ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
     Swing states:  AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
                    TN, WA, WV, WI
     Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT

    BASED ON 1006 ADULTS NATION WIDE

    Three-Way Trial Heat
                  Bush/Lean    Kerry/Lean     Nader/Lean   Undecided/Other
                    Bush         Kerry           Nader
    Total            45            43               5            7  =100

    Men              50            41               4            5  =100
    Women            42            45               6            7  =100

    18-29            38            48               7            7  =100
    30-49            54            37               5            4  =100
    50-64            43            45               6            6  =100
    65+              35            53               4            8  =100

    Rep              88             8               1            3  =100
    Dem              11            81               4            4  =100
    Ind              35            43              12           10  =100

    Rep States       54            38               3            5  =100
    Swing States     43            47               5            5  =100
    Dem States       38            46               7            9  =100


    1c. Do you support (Q1a CHOICE: Bush/Kerry/Nader) STRONGLY or only
        moderately?

    BASED ON 1006 ADULTS NATION WIDE

    Candidate Preference/Strength of Support

      Total                                Rep          Dem          Ind
            Bush Voters
       32   Strong                         70            6           18
       13   Not Strong                     18            5           17

            Kerry Voters
       22   Strong                         4             47          16
       21   Not Strong                     4             34          27

            Nader Voters
        1   Strong                         0             1           4
        4   Not Strong                     1             3           8

        7   Undecided/Other                3             4           10
      100                                  100           100         100


    2a/b. Suppose there were only two presidential candidates on the ballot
          and you HAD TO CHOOSE between... George W. Bush, the Republican, and
          John Kerry, the Democrat.  If the election were held TODAY, who
          would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH OR KERRY, RESPONDENTS
          WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush, the
          Republican or Kerry, the Democrat?

    BASED ON 1006 ADULTS NATION WIDE

    Two Way Trial Heat
                 Bush/Lean Bush    Kerry/Lean    Undecided/Other
                                     Kerry
    Current
     Total            48              48               4          =100
    Trends
    (2/19-20/04)      45              48               7          =100
    (2/5-6/04)        45              50               5          =100
    (1/29-30/04)      46              48               6          =100
    (1/22-23/04)      46              49               5          =100
    (1/8-9/04)        52              41               7          =100
    (12/11-12/03)     51              41               8          =100
    (11/6-7/03)       49              45               6          =100
    (10/23-24/03)     50              42               8          =100
    (10/9-10/03)      48              42              10          =100
    (9/25-26/03)      50              42               8          =100
    (9/18-19/03)      48              43               9          =100
    (7/10-11/03)      50              42               8          =100

 

   

[MarkDel]

Darth,

Am I reading that correctly? Even in this Democrat-biased poll, Bush is up 54-37% among men AND women age 30-49??? If that's true, the Democrats have real problems in the future...no wonder they're trying to allow non-US citizens, felons and illegal immigrants to vote. God, I love my generation...

[MarkDel]

Vorlon,

I think you underestimate the gender gap. I'm 37 and came of age during the Reagan years, and I literally have NO MALE FRIENDS WHO ARE DEMOCRATS...NONE. However, a number of their wives are Democrats, and they tend to be middle to upper/middle class.

This poll was enouraging to me as a Republican. Now if I can only figure out a way to make all those damn Baby Boomers hurry up and die then the Republicans will never lose a national election...LOL

[© tweed]

How I would have voted in this poll:

Kerry
Kerry
Unfavorable
Unfavorable

You would have voted for Kerry but given him an unfavorable rating?  Or am I misreading that?

yes.  I dislike Kerry very much, but I will vote for him in November no matter what.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

How I would have voted in this poll:

Kerry
Kerry
Unfavorable
Unfavorable

You would have voted for Kerry but given him an unfavorable rating?  Or am I misreading that?

yes.  I dislike Kerry very much, but I will vote for him in November no matter what.

I'm the same, I was REALLY pulling for Edwards or Gephardt,  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

30-49s became aware under Reagan, who was an excellent President.

People who are my age (30) were brainwashed by the school system into worshiping Reagan and Bush.

The '80s and '90s in America saw the death of being allowed to think for oneself.

[opebo]

30-49s became aware under Reagan, who was an excellent President.

People who are my age (30) were brainwashed by the school system into worshiping Reagan and Bush.

The '80s and '90s in America saw the death of being allowed to think for oneself.

All my teachers hated Reagan, and strongly disliked Bush Sr. and weren't shy about saying so.  I'm 35.

[12th Doctor]

30-49s became aware under Reagan, who was an excellent President.

People who are my age (30) were brainwashed by the school system into worshiping Reagan and Bush.

The '80s and '90s in America saw the death of being allowed to think for oneself.

All my teachers hated Reagan, and strongly disliked Bush Sr. and weren't shy about saying so.  I'm 35.

Same here for the most part.  Back in 2000, one of my sisters teachers told the class that they shoudl support Gore, because the 'Rugrats' supported Gore.  My sister was only in 1st Grade!!!!   I almost went in to have a talk with her teacher, but desided not to because if I did the currupt teachers union would probably make her life a living Hell.