Bush opens small lead in Michigan

[Inmate Trump]

According to an Inside Michigan Politics Poll, Bush now is in the lead in the state, 47% to Kerry's 45%.

go here to read more:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040319/def013_1.html

[angus]

Don't really know Michigan, but on a slightly unrelated topic I heard some results of a poll today on public radio station KQED.  A survey of workers 'happiness' was taken in the 20 most populous markets and Detroit ranked lowest on the scale of general worker contentment.  By comparison, Boston was highest, followed by Los Angeles (oddly).  I'll call the unhappy Michigan workers for Kerry, your results notwithstanding.   I also think most of the happy workers in MA and CA will vote for Kerry.  Excepting me.  

[Gustaf]

That seems weird...and scary for Kerry...even though 47% for Bush isn't that good, considering that he's the incumbent. Was Nader included? I still expect Michigan to go for Kerry, unless there's a landslide.

[muon2]

I didn't see anything about the poll details at the link. The link does show somewhat conservative responses to some issue questions, but again without detail.

[JNB]

 With the exception of Ann Arbor and some older Detroit suburbs(Oakland County), MI has very few social liberals, yes it has many Democrats, and many very partisan Democrats, but a large number of these Democrats also are gun owners, pro life, cant stand enviromentalists or govrenmnet programs like affirmative action.

  The AFL-CIO(along with the last minuite Bush DUI revelation) did a great job in pushing economic populism for Gore in 2000(far better than Gore did himself) that gave MI to Gore. Kerry, as I mentioned in another thread, need to stay "on message", and he should win MI. If he loses MI, it will mean that Kerry will be suffering a Dukakis style defeat.

[The Vorlon]

According to an Inside Michigan Politics Poll, Bush now is in the lead in the state, 47% to Kerry's 45%.

go here to read more:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040319/def013_1.html

Bush lost Michigan by 5.13% in 2000 so +2 is a swing of 7 points relative to 2000 - just barely within the polls margin of error.

Might be good news for Bush, or maybe just a blip...

[MarkDel]

This does not surprise me. When I did my initial Prediction Map in early January, I had Michigan rated as a very slight lean to the Republicans. Same goes for Pennsylvania. These are two states which would definitely go to the Democrats if Kerry does well nationally, but if he continues to stress things like "Foreign leaders are rooting for me" then he's in big trouble. If Kerry loses by more than 3-4% nationally in the popular vote, he will likely lose Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[© tweed]

Kerry could lose Michigan but win OH, which makes up for it.  bush's Steel tariff move helps him in MI and hurts him in OH.

[agcatter]

A lot like Florida - the underdog in each state is slightly ahead.  However, in the end, odds are that Michigan goes Dem and Florida goes Bush.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Rassmussen poll done a few days after this one has Kerry ahead.

[agcatter]

meaningless polls eight months out

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But of course

[agcatter]

I'm still waiting for the first big poll out of Idaho...

[Gustaf]

I'm still waiting for the first big poll out of Idaho...

Montana:

Bush: 58%

Kerry: 26%

Despite it being an early poll, taken in early December last year, it's by the relaibele institute MAson-Dixon, so I am ready to call Montana for Bush.

[The Vorlon]

I'm still waiting for the first big poll out of Idaho...

Montana:

Bush: 58%

Kerry: 26%

Despite it being an early poll, taken in early December last year, it's by the relaibele institute MAson-Dixon, so I am ready to call Montana for Bush.

Brave.. very brave...

I hereby call Utah and Wyoming for Bush, and Massatusatts and the Distric of Columbia for Kerry...

I want to see a recne t polll on Texas before I go out on a limb there....

Have a nice day..

[Gustaf]

I'm still waiting for the first big poll out of Idaho...

Montana:

Bush: 58%

Kerry: 26%

Despite it being an early poll, taken in early December last year, it's by the relaibele institute MAson-Dixon, so I am ready to call Montana for Bush.

Brave.. very brave...

I hereby call Utah and Wyoming for Bush, and Massatusatts and the Distric of Columbia for Kerry...

I want to see a recne t polll on Texas before I go out on a limb there....

Have a nice day..

Woah, woah...wait a minute, it's 8 months left...but, heck if you're gonna go ahead and just call states like that, be my guest...I think I'll stick with the safe bets...

[Gustaf]

I'm still waiting for the first big poll out of Idaho...

And it's here!

Bush: 57%

Kerry: 23%

And this tells us...nothing

[classical liberal]

Bush is down 10% from his result in 2000.

[zachman]

I can't understand why anyone from Iowa would be involved in politics. Last time Bush beat Gore there by a ratio of about 8:3. If I were Kerry and I had powers to calm Nader, I would forefeit from the ballot there and force Nader to compete solely in Idaho, but he would recieve a second place there.

[ian]

And an even more recent poll, conducted by Rasmussen Reports shows Kerry in the lead in Mi, holding his own with 48% to Bush's 46%.