Kerry +1 in Florida

[The Vorlon]

I looks like 2004 will be a whole lot like 2000...

A new ARG poll of 600 likely voters produced:

Kerry 45%
Bush 44%
Nader 4%

The margin of Error on the poll is +/- 4% 19 times out of 20

Unlike the Granite State poll showing Kerry +15 in New Hampshire, which was a methodological disaster, this ARG poll actually looks pretty good.

The Florida ARG poll contacted 44% Democrats, 41% Republicans, which closely matches the 41%/39% Democratic voter registration advantage in Florida.

The ratio of Repubicans to Democrats typically shifts 2 or 3% towards the GOP when you narrow from "all" registered voters to "likely" voters.  In this poll the Democratic advantage actually grew by 1% - but that is a very minor quibble.

This looks like a poll we can trust. - it's a dead heat in Florida - deja vue all over again...

http://americanresearchgroup.com/fl/

[Ben.]

I wonder what the polling is like when the choice is Kerry/ Graham or Kerry/ Nelson .vs. Bush Cheney? I would have thought that should have given Kerry a modest boost over Bush...

[California Dreamer]

any word on if Nader will be on the ballot in Florida?

...am I right in assuming that the bar is much lower in FL to get on the ballot (which is why they had to go to the infamous 'butterfly ballot' in Palm Beach due to the large number of candidates)

I still think all polls will overstate Nader voters...I think many of his supporters will get real and vote Kerry on the day.

[opebo]

We better make damn sure Nadar gets on the ballot in Florida!  I hope Jeb has someone on that...

[HoopsCubs]

I looks like 2004 will be a whole lot like 2000...

A new ARG poll of 600 likely voters produced:

Kerry 45%
Bush 44%
Nader 4%

The margin of Error on the poll is +/- 4% 19 times out of 20

Unlike the Granite State poll showing Kerry +15 in New Hampshire, which was a methodological disaster, this ARG poll actually looks pretty good.

The Florida ARG poll contacted 44% Democrats, 41% Republicans, which closely matches the 41%/39% Democratic voter registration advantage in Florida.

The ratio of Repubicans to Democrats typically shifts 2 or 3% towards the GOP when you narrow from "all" registered voters to "likely" voters.  In this poll the Democratic advantage actually grew by 1% - but that is a very minor quibble.

This looks like a poll we can trust. - it's a dead heat in Florida - deja vue all over again...

http://americanresearchgroup.com/fl/

I see this, and I again start thinking that Kerry should select Graham or Nelson.

Hoops

[Ben.]

Personally I'm leaning more and more towards Nelson, not as lightwieght or woth the potential to be seen as a leftwinger like Edwards, not as boring as Bayh, Gephardt, Richardson or Graham, plenty of experiance unlike Warner or Edwards, staunchly moderate unlike Edwards, Gephardt or Richardson and from a state that he can help to carry unlike Gephardt or Edwards...

So at the moment Nelson is looking pretty good...

[HoopsCubs]

Personally I'm leaning more and more towards Nelson, not as lightwieght or woth the potential to be seen as a leftwinger like Edwards, not as boring as Bayh, Gephardt, Richardson or Graham, plenty of experiance unlike Warner or Edwards, staunchly moderate unlike Edwards, Gephardt or Richardson and from a state that he can help to carry unlike Gephardt or Edwards...

So at the moment Nelson is looking pretty good...

Was Nelson in the House before he became a Senator?  Is there that much difference in experience between Nelson and Virginia governor Mark Warner?  Emotionally, I think the selection should be Graham or Nelson, but analytically, I think Warner could do wonders with the independents in Virginia, West Virginia and Ohio.

 

 

[zachman]

Both of the Florida choices are solid. Graham makes Kerry seem gentle and compassionate, and Nelson is an astronaut and therefore an american success. He has a good deep voice that will do well in the midwest.