With trends like these...

[Dave from Michigan]

 

http://www.opinionjournal.com/pl/?id=110005404


a interesting article in today's Wall Street Journal

[Citizen James]

Interesting, but pretty much fluff.   Yes, listing little trivia related to the outcome of elections doesn't nessisarily cause the outcome of an election.  But the importance of Ohio is less about the 'historic tendencies' and more about the fact that it is a big state which could go either way. Of the seven states with twenty or more EV, three are considered fairly 'safe' democratic (CA, NY, and IL - 97 EV), one 'safe' republican (TX -34 EV).  Of the remaining three, one has been leaning democratic (PA), which makes for an even bigger fight for the other two.

For Bush to win without Ohio, he would need to take Florida and either Penslyvaina or the lions share of the other toss-ups.

Failing that, he would need to have a major suprise upset on another big front.

[TheWildCard]

For Bush to win without Ohio, he would need to take Florida and either Penslyvaina or the lions share of the other toss-ups.

Really all he'd need is 2 or 3 toss-ups not a "lions share" unless he loses  Florida as well as Ohio but he does not need 2 of these large states.

Ohio=20
MI+WI=27
MI+MN=27
MI+IA=24
MI+OR=24
MI+NM=21
MI+ME=21
WI+MN=20

Under these scenarios Bush could win every state he won in 2000 and lose OH, WV and NH but still win or tie the electoral college if he picked up any of the above combinations.

[muon2]

For Bush to win without Ohio, he would need to take Florida and either Penslyvaina or the lions share of the other toss-ups.

Really all he'd need is 2 or 3 toss-ups not a "lions share" unless he loses  Florida as well as Ohio but he does not need 2 of these large states.

Ohio=20
MI+WI=27
MI+MN=27
MI+IA=24
MI+OR=24
MI+NM=21
MI+ME=21
WI+MN=20

Under these scenarios Bush could win every state he won in 2000 and lose OH, WV and NH but still win or tie the electoral college if he picked up any of the above combinations.

It seems pretty clear why Bush's recent campaign trip included stops in MI and WI.