EPIC/MRI says Kerry 48 / Bush 44 in Michigan

[The Vorlon]

Kerry +4 in Michigan says EPIC/MRI

A bit of better news for Mr. Kerry...

Presidential race tightens in Michigan
September 20, 2004, 4:06 PM

LANSING, Mich. (AP) -- The race between Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry and President Bush has tightened in Michigan, with Kerry and running mate John Edwards getting 48 percent and 44 percent going to Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, according to a new poll released Monday by Lansing-based EPIC/MRA.

An early August poll conducted by EPIC/MRA had Kerry/Edwards leading 49 percent to 42 percent with third party candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo getting 3 percent and 6 percent undecided. Nader/Camejo got 2 percent in the latest poll, with 6 percent undecided.

Vorlon Note!

The reporter here is note quite comparing "apples to apples" in the Early August Epic/MRI poll in the head to head 2 way result Kerry was ahead 51/43, so "apples to apples" this is a 4 point shift

The poll was conducted Wednesday through Sunday and surveyed 610 likely Michigan voters. The August and September polls both had margins of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

More voters continued to have a favorable opinion of Kerry than of Bush.

Half said they had a favorable opinion of Kerry, while 41 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 8 percent were undecided. For the Republican president, 45 percent had a favorable opinion and 50 percent had an unfavorable opinion, with 4 percent undecided.

Only a quarter had a favorable opinion of Nader, who is running as an independent in Michigan after qualifying for the ballot with the help of signatures collected by Republicans. Fifty-four percent had an unfavorable opinion, and 19 percent were undecided.

[Sam Spade]

Sounds about right to me.  Pretty much all Michigan polls lately have put it in the 3-6 point Kerry lead range.

[emergingDmajority1]

pretty much the same margin gore won with in 2000. Bush won't get any closer in Michigan.

[The Vorlon]

4% - I am not evenb sure in Michigan it's that close.

The demographics and migration patters are just brutal for Bush in Michigan.

Kerry would meed to massively meltdown for Bush to take Michigan.

Barring another set of memos to Dan Ra^ther, I would be surprised if Michigan ever gets truly close.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I previously explained why I don't think Kerry is a strong  in Michigan as many polls are showing.

First, there is the ballot measure on Marriage.

Second, this year Bush has the advantage on GOTV.

Third, white female voters in that state are unhappy with Kerry's oscillation, and respect Bush's quiet firmness (they really like the way he handled Rathergate).

[Nym90]

I previously explained why I don't think Kerry is a strong  in Michigan as many polls are showing.

First, there is the ballot measure on Marriage.

Second, this year Bush has the advantage on GOTV.

Third, white female voters in that state are unhappy with Kerry's oscillation, and respect Bush's quiet firmness (they really like the way he handled Rathergate).

In Michigan, the Republican GOTV operation is not nearly as good as the Dems, at least he hasn't been in the last few cycles for sure. I hardly see a groundswell of new Republican voters in the state.

As for your third point, I see no polling data showing that white females in Michigan are moving toward Bush.

I thought of one more thing to add to The Vorlon's list of reasons why Michigan is tough for Bush...it has, I believe, the highest percentage of Arabs of any state (certainly one of the highest at least). It's still not a big percentage even here, but it's at least not an irrelevantly low number like in most states.

100 bucks says Bush won't win the city of Dearborn again like he did in 2000.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I previously explained why I don't think Kerry is a strong  in Michigan as many polls are showing.

First, there is the ballot measure on Marriage.

Second, this year Bush has the advantage on GOTV.

Third, white female voters in that state are unhappy with Kerry's oscillation, and respect Bush's quiet firmness (they really like the way he handled Rathergate).

In Michigan, the Republican GOTV operation is not nearly as good as the Dems, at least he hasn't been in the last few cycles for sure. I hardly see a groundswell of new Republican voters in the state.

As for your third point, I see no polling data showing that white females in Michigan are moving toward Bush.

I thought of one more thing to add to The Vorlon's list of reasons why Michigan is tough for Bush...it has, I believe, the highest percentage of Arabs of any state (certainly one of the highest at least). It's still not a big percentage even here, but it's at least not an irrelevantly low number like in most states.

100 bucks says Bush won't win the city of Dearborn again like he did in 2000.

I agree with you that IN THE PAST the Republicans had a pretty poor GOTV effort and that in 2000 the Democrats had an excellent one.

However, this is 2004, and this year is different, as you will see in a few weeks.

[Shira]

4% - I am not evenb sure in Michigan it's that close.

The demographics and migration patters are just brutal for Bush in Michigan.

Could you inform us about the demographics and the migration patterns ?

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It is not clear what is your MI forcast. As per your assesment who is going to win in MI?