October Surprise

[khirkhib]

Whether they already have him locked up and stashed away, know where he is and are tracking him, or are frantically looking for him finding Osama Bin Laden could have significant effects on the election.  Not only the if of finding Osama but the when of it would could have different impacts on the election.  Not catching Osama Bin Laden by  the election will probably motivate some voters to switch their ticket as well.  What are your ideas on how an October Surpise will effect the e.c. map.

[Sk]

    Funny you should mention October. I always thought that if they caught him it would be around this time (although I do not suspect they have him now or know where he is). Just a feeling, I guess. But it seems that Bin Laden has taken a big back seat these days. In short:

    1. Catching Bin Laden will help Bush immensely
    2. Failing to catch Bin Laden will do little to hurt Bush because Bin Laden is no longer the focus of attention (Iraq is now)

    Also, I myself believe he is probably dead or dying.

[Beet]

George Bush has already said he doesn't care about capturing bin Laden.

[classical liberal]

bin Laden probably died of dialysis last year.

[Umengus]

bin Laden probably died of dialysis last year.

it would be good for Kerry.

[dunn]

bin Laden probably died of dialysis last year.

CIA said the tape earlier ths year had UBL voice

[© tweed]

bin Laden probably died of dialysis last year.

CIA said the tape earlier ths year had UBL voice

You trust the CIA?  LOL!

[pieman]

For the record, dialysis is a medical treatment to replace the filtering function of the kidneys, not a disease.

Not that it would be impossible to die from a medical treatment such as dialysis, I would suspect you meant that he might die from kidney failure or the disease that caused the kidney failure such as diabetes.

I would think that it has become more and more difficult to obtain the necessary supplies and equipment as UBL moves about in secrecy.

[12th Doctor]

If Bin Laden is killed or captured before the election every state that can go Bush will go Bush.

[John]

BUSH WILL DO GOOD IN THE DEBATIES OVER KERRY
HE WILL WIN 51% TO 47% OVER KERRY

[WalterMitty]

seriously guys, do you really believe they could keep the capture of bin laden a secret?

[pieman]

First, it would be very difficult to keep a UBL capture/death secret. They can barley keep it under their hat when they beleive they have him cornered.

Second, waiting until October could backfire if there is ANY indication that it was delayed.

Third, capture of UBL could be perceived by the public as an end to the war in Afghanistan. Making the need for a War President less necessary. Not something you want if you are President Bush. You would want more time to adapt to the changing public perception.

[Beet]

If Bin Laden is killed or captured before the election every state that can go Bush will go Bush.

Well, every state can go to Bush. If Kerry was implicated in a felony, even his home state would reject a presidential bid. But I agree October Surprise would be a big (undeserved, considering that it would likely be some informant that does the deed) boost for Bush.

WalterMitty- they kept the capture of Saddam a secret, didn't they?