41.4% - 35.5% - 23.1%

[Pollwatch99]

I agree, Bush seems to be doing well with the woman's vote.  If he comes close, election is finished

[CARLHAYDEN]

Agreed.

Also look at a number of other crucial Democrat demographic groups.

Hispanics  -  Bush is doing slightly better here than in    
                    2000.  Kerry really muffed this one.

Blacks    -     Bush is doing minimally better here than in
                    in 2000, and the overall vote will be down.

Jews     -      Bush will do better with this group than any
                    Republican candidate since Reagan.

[agcatter]

Can't remember, but seems Bush got either 19 or 24% of the Jewish vote in 2000.  Look for him to beat that by somewhere between 5 and 10%.

I think he improves Hispanic vote by about 3% from 35 - 38.

Black vote goes from 8 to 10.  Also, as Carl says, black turnout for a white aristocrat Kerry will not be what it was in 2000.

Doesn't seem like a lot, but it all adds up.  Doesn't take much of a change in the Jewish percentage in Florida to make a big difference.

[agcatter]

And, the Teresa effect on the female vote will matter.  Women don't like her.  Neither do men.  God she's horrible.

[Pollwatch99]

I agree that Bush should do well with Jewish voters given jhis strnegth on terrorism and IRAQ.  That's why I believe he will win FL which Liberman helped skew to Gore.  Improvement in Hispanic vote will help here also as well as NM.

I would not be surprised to see a reasonable increase in the black vote for Bush.  His education program, black home ownership, and lower taxes may finally be having an impact with this bloc.  The dem's are rolling out their race card ad's because they are scared this will happen.  We will see

[agcatter]

Yep, look for the Dems to fire up that black dragging pickup truck in their ads.

[J. J.]

There is not the sense of support in the Black community for Kerry that I saw for Gore, at least here in Phila.  NAACP is doing a registration drive.  They only have until 10/2.

J. J.

[A18]

I heard this hilarious radio ad, which was done by one of these billionare George Soros groups. They call Bush one of the 'rich white boys' who dodged the draft by using his father to get into the guard. Then they say Bush stole the election by denying thousands of African Americans the right to vote.

It's all done in a trashy black accent. The hilarious part is when they start talking about Bush trying to make college admission merit-based. "Descriminatin' against WHITE students?! You've gotta be kiddin' me"

If that doesn't insult people's intelligence, I don't know what does. I expect the African American community to become much more evenly split, though certainly not this election.

I guess the point is to get black people to vote for Kerry. Of course, that makes no sense whatsoever since according to them black votes aren't counted, but...that's politics.

[CARLHAYDEN]

One of the most interesting points about the black vote is that in many ways its socially conservative.

Check the results from the predominately black precincts in Michigan and Ohio this year on the marriage measures.

Also, its really kind of hard to picture Bush as a racist when two of his top advises (Powell and Rice) are black and he is rumored to be thinking of elevating a current black member of the Supreme Court (Thomas) to the position of Chief Justice if he gets reelected and Rehnquist retires.

[Pollwatch99]

At the risk of offending anybody, the democratic party which champions themselves as the party supporting minorities has no minority member qualified to be President.

I'd proudly cast my vote for Colin Powell should he change his mind ( 99% chance he would not ) and decide to run for President in 2008.  He is a qualified leader

[CARLHAYDEN]

I heard this hilarious radio ad, which was done by one of these billionare George Soros groups. They call Bush one of the 'rich white boys' who dodged the draft by using his father to get into the guard. Then they say Bush stole the election by denying thousands of African Americans the right to vote.

It's all done in a trashy black accent. The hilarious part is when they start talking about Bush trying to make college admission merit-based. "Descriminatin' against WHITE students?! You've gotta be kiddin' me"

If that doesn't insult people's intelligence, I don't know what does. I expect the African American community to become much more evenly split, though certainly not this election.

I guess the point is to get black people to vote for Kerry. Of course, that makes no sense whatsoever since according to them black votes aren't counted, but...that's politics.

A number of years ago a pollster in Southern California was producing results that looked more than a little strange.

When his employers took a look at his questions, they seemed reasonable.

Eventually they got around to hearing some of the recorded calls.

He was hiring exclusively blacks from south-central LA who had a marked accent.

[J. J.]

I heard this hilarious radio ad, which was done by one of these billionare George Soros groups. They call Bush one of the 'rich white boys' who dodged the draft by using his father to get into the guard. Then they say Bush stole the election by denying thousands of African Americans the right to vote.

It's all done in a trashy black accent. The hilarious part is when they start talking about Bush trying to make college admission merit-based. "Descriminatin' against WHITE students?! You've gotta be kiddin' me"

If that doesn't insult people's intelligence, I don't know what does. I expect the African American community to become much more evenly split, though certainly not this election.

I guess the point is to get black people to vote for Kerry. Of course, that makes no sense whatsoever since according to them black votes aren't counted, but...that's politics.

The ones I've heard taked about Vietnam and "Manufacturing jobs."  

The Vietnam one talked about how Bush stayed in the NG, while "we" had to go to Vietnam.  They are running it on Hip Hop radio stations where the main demographic is 18-34 years old.  These guys never had to go to Vietnam; there fathers and grandfathers did.  

The jobs one (same station) talks about the loss of "manufacturing jobs."  I've liked in Phila for 12 years and I met about 2 people that had manufacturing jobs; they lost theirs under Clinton.

It's almost like Kerry is running a campaign from the mid-1970's.

I disagree about percentage of African American voters.  Bush might gain a percent, but I'm still predicting he's get under 10%.  I suspect turnout will be worse than 2000, at least in the Black areas of Phila.

[Pollwatch99]

Yes; Kerry is really strangely stuck in 1970's.  That is why we are dealing with IRAQ as Vietnam.  Same exact Vietnam war arguements.

    (1) Not enough international support
    (2) Administration (President) misleading the country
             into war.
    (3) Administration (President) planning the war ahead
             of time and looking for excuses to engage
    (4) Administration (VP) manipulating intelligence to
             support the war.
    (5) Student deferment(VP) vs. military service
    (6) The patriotism of the WAR protestor.
    (7) An entire convention whose main message was
              that one person was as qualified to be
              President because of 4 months of service 45  
              years ago.

[CARLHAYDEN]

With respect to the black vote, while I tend to agree that the net increase for Bush in the north will be minimal, I expect a slightly larger increase in the black vote for him in the south.

A particular subset of significance in this context is southern black church ladies.

[J. J.]

If it were on social issues alone, Bush would get 40% of the vote in North Phila, minimum; in my ward, he'll be doing great to get 6%-8%.  I think he got 4%-6% in 2000.

The problem then, as now, was turnout.  That's why the D's brought Rev. Jackson in to the area on Election Day.  It didn't really do anything.

The key to PA is the Phila suburbs.  In 2000, there was huge turnout, and Bush ran well below registration.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Is Ed Rendell going to make a real effort for Kerry?

I hear that he's holding out until Kerry gets the message and promises him control over several key appointments.

[J. J.]

Is Ed Rendell going to make a real effort for Kerry?

I hear that he's holding out until Kerry gets the message and promises him control over several key appointments.

That I don't know, but there has yet to be a real effort to campaign for Kerry in the African American community here in Phila.  I was seeing signs that said, "Beat da Bushes," by this time 4 years ago (those were professional signs).  Bush's poll numbers are up very slight amount over 2000 IN the City itself (about a point).

Kerry has yet to catch on here.