Rasmussen Poll in Illinois - Kerry leads by 5%

[Spin Police]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=17002004050

[Giant Saguaro]

Kerry's lead has shrunk from 18 to 13 to 8 to 5, according to realclearpolitics. MOE for this poll is 4.5.

Kerry 48
Bush 43

Kerry 46
Bush 41
Nader 8

Nader taking as much from Bush as Kerry seems odd and it's surprising that this state, as well as perhaps Michigan, has seemingly become closer than Ohio.

This is by no means "great" news for Bush, but it might be a break from the really bad. Should Bush go after the northern midwest more aggressively? I've been saying it will be easier to crack than the midatlantic areas of MD NJ and DE and eastern PA.

[WalterMitty]

i think this poll is good news for bush.  i thought that bush was down much more than 5 in illinois.  however, im not a big fan of rasmussen polls.

[Mort from NewYawk]

Kerry's lead has shrunk from 18 to 13 to 8 to 5, according to realclearpolitics. MOE for this poll is 4.5.

Kerry 48
Bush 43

Kerry 46
Bush 41
Nader 8

Nader taking as much from Bush as Kerry seems odd and it's surprising that this state, as well as perhaps Michigan, has seemingly become closer than Ohio.

This is by no means "great" news for Bush, but it might be a break from the really bad. Should Bush go after the northern midwest more aggressively? I've been saying it will be easier to crack than the midatlantic areas of MD NJ and DE and eastern PA.

What this tells you about Nader's vote is that half of it (4% of total vote) stays home if he isn't on the ballot. The other half splits evenly between candidates.

It may be that the first 4% (the half that would stay home) came predominantly from the far left, particularly Green voters last time, for whom Kerry is just not radical enough.

[California Dreamer]

Bush got 43% in 2000...and this poll has him at 43%...so he has gained no ground.

his only hope is that over half of the undecideds who voted for Gore will end up voting for him

...not very likely

[Storebought]

Normally, I'd say any poll showing a single-digit separation between Bush and Kerry in a state like IL is pure bunk. And Rasmussen has come close to bunk recently.

While Bush's situation is serious, it is not dire, as Zogby and CNN/Newsweek/Gallup make it out to be. Bush, by some miracle, still has some base of support, even in states under Democrat lockdown like IL or NJ. Of course, he won't win those states, but his losses won't be the fiasco the media expects.

Heartning report: Hateful Kennedy-era detritus is booed off stage in a commencement ceremony in New York [!]

http://www.syracuse.com/news/poststandard/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1084696763136023.xml

It's good to hear that Bush's supporters could at least fill up an audience in NY.

[Françoise]

Things have changed in New Jersey since September 11th - more than they have in New York City itself, even.  I think the GOP will find NJ a bit more friendly this election cycle.  Of course, it won't be by a whole lot, but maybe five percentage points.

Illinois and Michigan aren't tending GOP and I am not inclined to believe this poll.  (Both states have fairly large Arab populations which gave Bush a ~2:1 margin in 2000.  Something makes me doubt that he'll receive equally strong support from them in November.)

Françoise

[emergingDmajority1]

yup, because of 9/11, the convention in NYC and because Bush is the incumbent, NJ will be closer than it was in 2000 when Gore won by 16. Unless Corzine is a surprise VP pick or something.

Still NJ is safe enough for Kerry to take it for granted. I expect election day to look something like

Kerry- 52%
Bush- 44%
Nader- 2%

Morris, Warren, Somerset, and Hunterdon counties will turn out heavily for Bush, Bergen county will be close. The Dems will take the state soundly.

[Françoise]

Hm, the main reason I said "Arab" and not "Muslim" in the above post is because I haven't seen any polls of Muslims in 2000.   It is my sense, however, that they did give a majority to Bush in 2000.

Having said that, the Muslim population of Michigan is about 150,000.  I believe it's about three times of that in Illinois.  Such numbers polarized against one candidate can certainly swing the state.

Françoise

EDIT:  Okay, here's a poll:  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4137092/

Policy, mood flip flop
According to CAIR, 78 percent of Muslims voted Republican in 2000.

[minionofmidas]

The Michigan Arabs have mostly been there for quite a while and are US citizens. Spencer Abraham is one of them.

[Lunar]

Bad poll guys.  Kerry is up nationally, he's not sinking that badly in Democratic strongholds.

Nader does not have 8% of the vote either.  The very fact that he takes evenly from both of the candidates proves that most of his support comes from people just randomly picking a name.

[Beet]

There have now been polls released showing Kerry's lead at 5% or less in MD, NJ, CA, and IL.

[Lunar]

None of them very believable.  Expect to see a lot of these types of polls.

[opebo]

Bush won't win IL, but the better he does there the better the chance it will help keep that Obama out of office.

[Smash255]

Bush won't win IL, but the better he does there the better the chance it will help keep that Obama out of office.

Even as the Presidential race in IL has gotten closer Obama still has a huge lead in the polls

[opebo]

Bush won't win IL, but the better he does there the better the chance it will help keep that Obama out of office.

Even as the Presidential race in IL has gotten closer Obama still has a huge lead in the polls

Oh.. depressing.

[Lunar]

...which is why I don't believe the poll.  Didn't Rasmussen have Kerry +7 in Ohio?

I also think it's trash because Nader has 8%.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Well, since people are weighing in on my state, I'd say this time around it will be 55% for Kerry, 43% for Bush, 2% to others.  

As far as that Illinois poll.....seems a little off.  Kerry is probably ahead by much more there.  I'll go with someone else, Rasmussen looks way off.  

[ElectionAtlas]

Hi,  
Note that the poll pages support comments for discussion.  I encourage you to post there - rather than creating new forum threads.  I've moved the comments from this thread over - except François, NewFederalist, and emergingDmajority1.  I didn't find matching prediction usernames... also Beet, are you the same as "Beet Juice"?
Thanks,
Dave