Ron Faucheux / Campaign Line Odds Now Up for states

[Rococo4]

I was just at his website, http://www.campaignline.com/, and he finally has his odds for individual states posted.  As of now, he has Kerry favored in NH and WV, while Bush is favored in WI.  Iowa is 50-50 (the only one he has listed like that.  Arkansas and Minnesota were the only states where no odds were up (assume they stay with the 2000 winning party).  

By his math, Bush would be at 279 (starting with his 2000 wins at 278) (-4 NH, -5 WV and +10 WI)

while Kerry is at 252 (his count starts at 260 - the Gore states) (+4 NH, +5 WV, -10 WI, and -7 IA)

Iowa's 7 not allocated

Ohio and Florida are both 30 to 29 (50.8%) in favor of Bush right now.

He still sees it close from this map...he has a pretty good track record, though I think I remember him missing the CO Senate Race in 2002, and he had the NH Senate race a tie, and didnt call a winner.  

[Citizen James]

He's fun to read, though I don't consider his track record exceptionally impressive.  You can generally get a 98% success rate just by predicting that all members of the house will be re-elected.   Calling Wyoming for Bush or DC for Kerry isn't exactly rocket science either.   And fudging the toss ups as barely leaning one way or another is usually not too hard either - and that (along with the rare upset) is where most of the 2% come from.

Still, for us political junkies, any fix is a good fix.