Estimated percentage state by state

[tinman64]

Here's how I see it at this moment (two-party vote only):

Alabama: Bush 59-41
Alaska: Bush 65-35
Arizona: Bush 54-46
Arkansas: Bush 54-46
California: Kerry 55-45
Colorado: Bush 53-47
Connecticut: Kerry 57-43
Delaware: Kerry 52-48
D.C.: Kerry 87-13
Florida: Kerry 50.5-49.5
Georgia: Bush 57-43
Hawaii: Kerry 55-45
Idaho: Bush 67-33
Illinois: Kerry 55-45
Indiana: Bush 56-44
Iowa: Kerry 51.5-48.5
Kansas: Bush 58-42
Kentucky: Bush 57-43
Louisiana: Bush 54-46
Maine: Kerry 53-47
Maryland: Kerry 54-46
Massachusetts: Kerry 58-42
Michigan: Kerry 52-48
Minnesota: Kerry 53-47
Mississippi: Bush 58-42
Missouri: Bush 51-49
Montana: Bush 59-41
Nebraska: Bush 64-36
Nevada: Bush 52-48
New Hampshire: Kerry 50.5-49.5
New Jersey: Kerry 53-47
New Mexico: Bush 52-48
New York: Kerry 56-44
North Carolina: Bush 55-45
North Dakota: Bush 64-36
Ohio: Bush 51-49
Oklahoma: Bush 59-41
Oregon: Kerry 50.5-49.5
Pennsyvania: Kerry 51-49
Rhode Island: Kerry 60-40
South Carolina: Bush 58-42
South Dakota: Bush 61-39
Texas: Bush 58-42
Utah: Bush 73-27
Vermont: Kerry 56-44
Virginia: Bush 54-46
Washington: Kerry 52-48
West Virginia: Kerry 50.5-49.5
Wisconsin: Kerry 51-49
Wyoming: Bush 67-33

[Gustaf]

I think you're under-estimating Kerry in NC, NJ, NY and VT. But I think you're overestimating him in WV, IN, NV and FL.

[opebo]

Alabama: Bush 59-41
Alaska: Bush 63-37
Arizona: Bush 54-46
Arkansas: Bush 54-46
California: Kerry 54-46
Colorado: Bush 53-47
Connecticut: Kerry 57-43
Delaware: Kerry 52-48
D.C.: Kerry 87-13
Florida: Bush 50.5-49.5
Georgia: Bush 57-43
Hawaii: Kerry 55-45
Idaho: Bush 67-33
Illinois: Kerry 54-46
Indiana: Bush 57-43
Iowa: Bush 51.5-48.5
Kansas: Bush 58-42
Kentucky: Bush 57-43
Louisiana: Bush 54-46
Maine: Kerry 53-47
Maryland: Kerry 54-46
Massachusetts: Kerry 58-42
Michigan: Bush 50-49
Minnesota: Bush 50-49
Mississippi: Bush 58-42
Missouri: Bush 52-48
Montana: Bush 59-41
Nebraska: Bush 64-36
Nevada: Bush 54-46
New Hampshire: Bush 50.5-49.5
New Jersey: Kerry 53-47
New Mexico: Bush 51-49
New York: Kerry 58-42
North Carolina: Bush 55-45
North Dakota: Bush 64-36
Ohio: Bush 51-49
Oklahoma: Bush 59-41
Oregon: Bush 50.5-49.5
Pennsyvania: Bush 51-49
Rhode Island: Kerry 60-40
South Carolina: Bush 58-42
South Dakota: Bush 61-39
Texas: Bush 58-42
Utah: Bush 73-27
Vermont: Kerry 56-44
Virginia: Bush 54-46
Washington: Kerry 51-49
West Virginia: Bush 51-49
Wisconsin: Bush 51-49
Wyoming: Bush 67-33

Ok I only changed some, but thats about right.

[TeePee4Prez]

Alabama: Bush 59-41
Alaska: Bush 63-37
Arizona: Bush 52-48 DHD
Arkansas: Kerry 51-49
California: Kerry 56-44
Colorado: Bush 52-48 DHD
Connecticut: Kerry 57-43
Delaware: Kerry 54-46 DHR
D.C.: Kerry 87-13
Florida: Bush 50.5-49.5
Georgia: Bush 57-43
Hawaii: Kerry 58-42
Idaho: Bush 67-33
Illinois: Kerry 57-43
Indiana: Bush 57-43
Iowa: Kerry 53-47
Kansas: Bush 58-42
Kentucky: Bush 57-43
Louisiana: Bush 52-48 DHD
Maine: Kerry 55-45
Maryland: Kerry 57-43
Massachusetts: Kerry 62-38
Michigan: Kerry 53-47
Minnesota: Kerry 52-48
Mississippi: Bush 58-42
Missouri: Bush 51-49
Montana: Bush 59-41
Nebraska: Bush 64-36
Nevada: Kerry 51-49
New Hampshire: Kerry 52-48
New Jersey: Kerry 56-44 DHR
New Mexico: Kerry 51-49
New York: Kerry 60-40
North Carolina: Kerry 51-49(Edwards as VP), Bush 53-47 otherwise DHD
North Dakota: Bush 64-36
Ohio: Kerry 51-49
Oklahoma: Bush 59-41
Oregon: Kerry 50.5-49.5
Pennsyvania: Kerry 53-47
Rhode Island: Kerry 60-40
South Carolina: Bush 53-47 DHD
South Dakota: Bush 61-39
Texas: Bush 58-42
Utah: Bush 73-27
Vermont: Kerry 56-44
Virginia: Bush 52-48 DHD
Washington: Kerry 53-47
West Virginia: Kerry 51-49
Wisconsin: Kerry 51-49
Wyoming: Bush 67-33

DHD= Dark Horse DEM
DHR= Dark Horse REP

[Akno21]

Alabama: Bush 59-41
Alaska: Bush 63-37
Arizona: Bush 52-48 DHD
Arkansas: Kerry 51-49
California: Kerry 56-44
Colorado: Bush 52-48 DHD
Connecticut: Kerry 57-43
Delaware: Kerry 54-46 DHR
D.C.: Kerry 87-13
Florida: Bush 50.5-49.5
Georgia: Bush 57-43
Hawaii: Kerry 58-42
Idaho: Bush 67-33
Illinois: Kerry 57-43
Indiana: Bush 57-43
Iowa: Kerry 53-47
Kansas: Bush 58-42
Kentucky: Bush 57-43
Louisiana: Bush 52-48 DHD
Maine: Kerry 55-45
Maryland: Kerry 57-43
Massachusetts: Kerry 62-38
Michigan: Kerry 53-47
Minnesota: Kerry 52-48
Mississippi: Bush 58-42
Missouri: Bush 51-49
Montana: Bush 59-41
Nebraska: Bush 64-36
Nevada: Kerry 51-49
New Hampshire: Kerry 52-48
New Jersey: Kerry 56-44 DHR
New Mexico: Kerry 51-49
New York: Kerry 60-40
North Carolina: Kerry 51-49(Edwards as VP), Bush 53-47 otherwise DHD
North Dakota: Bush 64-36
Ohio: Kerry 51-49
Oklahoma: Bush 59-41
Oregon: Kerry 50.5-49.5
Pennsyvania: Kerry 53-47
Rhode Island: Kerry 60-40
South Carolina: Bush 53-47 DHD
South Dakota: Bush 61-39
Texas: Bush 58-42
Utah: Bush 73-27
Vermont: Kerry 56-44
Virginia: Bush 52-48 DHD
Washington: Kerry 53-47
West Virginia: Kerry 51-49
Wisconsin: Kerry 51-49
Wyoming: Bush 67-33

DHD= Dark Horse DEM
DHR= Dark Horse REP

SC will only be MILDLY competitive if Edwards is chosen. Even if he is, Bush will most likely win by at least 9%. Doing it only two-party is kind of stupid, although we don't know where Nader is going to be on the ballot. Anything that Kerry wins by under 3% in a two-way estimate can be questioned.  

[agcatter]

NC will not go Dem Edwards or no Edwards

Dems need to get over that wet dream

[Gustaf]

Opebo, why do you think Delaware, New Jersey and Maryland will so close? They weren't in 2000...and how come Bush wins ALL the close states? That rarelyt happens...

[© tweed]

NC will not go Dem Edwards or no Edwards

Dems need to get over that wet dream

A Mason-Dixon poll a month ago begs to differ.