Battleground State Polls- Zogby

[Reds4]

Here is the link
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

 The polls are clearly a good sign for Kerry, but most do believe Zogby polls have a slight democratic bias. These state polls are very interesting. Bush ahead by 5% in Iowa and behind 3.3% in Missouri? I would think Bush is clearly ahead in Missouri. Also, if Zogby is slightly democratic as I believe, then Bush is likely slightly ahead in Florida. The polling from PA, and WI are particularly bad looking for Bush.  rkansas looks safer Bush after this, but many states are leaning to Kerry at the time being.

[The Vorlon]

Here is the link
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

 The polls are clearly a good sign for Kerry, but most do believe Zogby polls have a slight democratic bias. These state polls are very interesting. Bush ahead by 5% in Iowa and behind 3.3% in Missouri? I would think Bush is clearly ahead in Missouri. Also, if Zogby is slightly democratic as I believe, then Bush is likely slightly ahead in Florida. The polling from PA, and WI are particularly bad looking for Bush.  rkansas looks safer Bush after this, but many states are leaning to Kerry at the time being.

Would this be the ONLINE poll (ie Internet based) that Zogby is trying to sort out?

Why yes...  yes it is...

[Reds4]

Well then nevermind, the results mean basically nothing in my opinion. I wonder if this is the only kind of state polling Zogby is doing this year? I remember in 2000 he had state polls he conducted daily for about the last month or so before the election that were just his regular polls, I guess I just assumed this was something like that. I don't even know how he expects to get any poll of any importance from online.

[The Vorlon]

Well then nevermind, the results mean basically nothing in my opinion. I wonder if this is the only kind of state polling Zogby is doing this year? I remember in 2000 he had state polls he conducted daily for about the last month or so before the election that were just his regular polls, I guess I just assumed this was something like that. I don't even know how he expects to get any poll of any importance from online.

Actually in 2000 Harris Interactive (Ie the Harris poll people) ran an internet based poll where they screened people pretty heavy before the included folks in a sample and then weighted the ^&&^^$ out of the result and they NAILED it, there final call was Gore +.6% - which differed from the actual result by only 0.09% (!)

Now they may have just gotten totally lucky, or there may be something to it...

30 years ago when the first started doing telephone polling versus face to face, Telephone polls were considered voodoo too...

Internet polls are clearly not sorted out yet, but I do think they are the future.

You get 100,000 people, you screen the %$%% out of them to determine their EXACT demographic profile, weight accordingly, and you should be damn close...

In theory....

unless all the online people have lied to you about who they really are demographically/politically...

[mddem2004]

People have said of Zogby in the past..."Live by Zogby, Die by Zogby".

I want to point out as well that Zogby nailed the 2000 election, the only major polling operation that tracked the late surge by Gore the weekend of Bush's DWI revelation, calling Gore the winner by .05%. Most other polls had Bush 2% to 6% ahead of Gore the weekend before. Zogby's Democratic Primary polls this year were pretty close to actual results as well.

My own view is...I would tend to rely on his polls more than I would discount them.

That being the case, this latest polling effort by him is very good news for Kerry!

[The Vorlon]

People have said of Zogby in the past..."Live by Zogby, Die by Zogby".

I want to point out as well that Zogby nailed the 2000 election, the only major polling operation that tracked the late surge by Gore the weekend of Bush's DWI revelation, calling Gore the winner by .05%. Most other polls had Bush 2% to 6% ahead of Gore the weekend before. Zogby's Democratic Primary polls this year were pretty close to actual results as well.

My own view is...I would tend to rely on his polls more than I would discount them.

That being the case, this latest polling effort by him is very good news for Kerry!

Actually a number of firms got 2000 right.

The pollsters had an excelent year in 2000.

Zogby has Gore +2 which was a great call,

But Harris (Both phone and Internet) both called it a dead heat, as did FoxNews.

TIPP also clearly tracked the Gore rise at the end, they ended up at Bush +2 in their 3 day tracking poll, but their certainly nailed the trend going from Bush +8 to Bush +2 over the last 3 days.

Even CBS (which I love to hate) got lucky and called Gore +1.

To give you an idea how good a job the polls did in 2000, Zogby's 2% error, which many years would have "won" the honors actually had him tied for 5th!

Zogby had a brutal year in 2002 however.

He polled 17 Senate/Governor races and got only 12 right! and had the highest average margin of error of any major polling firm.
(According to the national Council on Public Polling)

Zogby is a wildcard - he has been spectacularly right and wrong so many times it is hard to know what to think of him.

[millwx]

You get 100,000 people, you screen the %$%% out of them to determine their EXACT demographic profile, weight accordingly, and you should be damn close...

Vorlon,

I'm no poll expert like yourself (I'm reasonably well versed, have an education heavy on math and science, and am lucky enough to have a few connections in some of the polling organizations... but I'm not The Vorlon!).  In fact, I've referenced you a couple of times already in my brief existence on this board.  So, I was surprised to see your response to this... especially since Zogby's numbers look a bit askew in a few of these states (maybe that's because of his specific weighting).  But, the argument makes sense (with the caveat you point out... that there is not tremendous lying going on)...

As long as you know the existing demographic, you can screen the data to come up with a reasonable result... even though the raw internet poll data is probably wretchedly skewed.

I know you're not giving the Vorlon thumbs up to internet polling... especially one by Zogby.  But it's interesting that you don't dismiss it out of hand (and your reasoning makes perfect sense).

[The Vorlon]

You get 100,000 people, you screen the %$%% out of them to determine their EXACT demographic profile, weight accordingly, and you should be damn close...

Vorlon,

I'm no poll expert like yourself (I'm reasonably well versed, have an education heavy on math and science, and am lucky enough to have a few connections in some of the polling organizations... but I'm not The Vorlon!).  In fact, I've referenced you a couple of times already in my brief existence on this board.  So, I was surprised to see your response to this... especially since Zogby's numbers look a bit askew in a few of these states (maybe that's because of his specific weighting).  But, the argument makes sense (with the caveat you point out... that there is not tremendous lying going on)...

As long as you know the existing demographic, you can screen the data to come up with a reasonable result... even though the raw internet poll data is probably wretchedly skewed.

I know you're not giving the Vorlon thumbs up to internet polling... especially one by Zogby.  But it's interesting that you don't dismiss it out of hand (and your reasoning makes perfect sense).

Hope you're quoting me accurately..

According to a lot of posts I've read I have  said a lot of things I don't every recall actually saying..  

I could see an internet survey working something like this;

You sign up 100,000 volunteers, you then telephone them back and screen like crazy to nail down exactly who they are - you get names, phone numbers, SS numbers, etc... and verify like crazy...

You then "build" a sample of maybe 10,000 that looks exactly like America based on this data, amd then give them all unique ID numbers to enter when you poll them...

The huge key is how valid you data is from the internet.

How does that joke go....

"Lesbian Internet romance ends badly when both guys meet..."

[Rococo4]

If the poll is true, Bush is dead.  But I am a little skeptical of a poll that I just signed up for and was part of.  Anyone could use another email account and register again.  It seems suspect, but I dont know for sure.  Again, if all that is true, Kerry is in much better shape than we all though.  Most other polls that poll all  the Battleground states show Bush ahead or at worst tied w/ Kerry.  We'll see what other polls show about this topic in the weeks to come.

[12th Doctor]

No way Kerry is ahead by that much in Pennsylvania.  8 points!?!?  No way.  Kerry maybe looking that good in Ohio, but I doubt that as well.  Missouri is Bush and Iowa is not that heavily pro-Bush, at least not yet.

[12th Doctor]

If the poll is true, Bush is dead.  But I am a little skeptical of a poll that I just signed up for and was part of.  Anyone could use another email account and register again.  It seems suspect, but I dont know for sure.  Again, if all that is true, Kerry is in much better shape than we all though.  Most other polls that poll all  the Battleground states show Bush ahead or at worst tied w/ Kerry.  We'll see what other polls show about this topic in the weeks to come.

Where do I sign up for this thing?

[struct310]

Im extremely skeptical of Zogbys integrity in this election year.  Doesn't it seem interesting that Zogby releases a bunch of state polls at the same time and also more interesting at the worst time for Bush in the polls due to Abu Gharib.  I would say most of those polls are wrong. Oregon is a dead heat with, I say to be a small Bush advantage.  Iowa is going to go for Kerry.  The Washington margin of Kerry needs to be oh I dont know cut off by about 4pts.

[Rococo4]

No way Kerry is ahead by that much in Pennsylvania.  8 points!?!?  No way.  Kerry maybe looking that good in Ohio, but I doubt that as well.  Missouri is Bush and Iowa is not that heavily pro-Bush, at least not yet.

Just go to Zogby.com and you can fill out your first poll.  Also, I live in Ohio.  Kerry is not up by that much...maybe 1 or 2 right now.  Maybe.  Also, I find the Missouri numbers questionable as well.

[12th Doctor]

No way Kerry is ahead by that much in Pennsylvania.  8 points!?!?  No way.  Kerry maybe looking that good in Ohio, but I doubt that as well.  Missouri is Bush and Iowa is not that heavily pro-Bush, at least not yet.

Just go to Zogby.com and you can fill out your first poll.  Also, I live in Ohio.  Kerry is not up by that much...maybe 1 or 2 right now.  Maybe.  Also, I find the Missouri numbers questionable as well.

Amazing.  All of these years they wouldn't call me, or anyone I know, but now, any wacko can get on the internet and fill out one of these things.

[millwx]

Hope you're quoting me accurately..

Actually, I've not usually quoted you as much as deferred to you after others have said, "Vorlon says...".  Not that this is the "What Vorlon says goes!" forum :-) (in fact, I do actually disagree with you a bit on the Fox/OD reliability... but that's for another thread), but you do seem to know more than I or anyone else on here when it comes to polling.  So, I've already seen how much your opinion is valued by others... and given the little I've read so far, it's valued by me as well.  I don't follow anyone on blind faith, but I do consider the source.  And there are a lot of folks out here throwing out opinions on the polls.  Not surprisingly, their opinions match their politics about 80% of the time.  You at least seem to be a straight shooter.

Anyway, off my Vorlon soapbox.  Point is, I was pleased to see you provide clarification on this polling methodology.  And it was interesting to see that you found it... TO A DEGREE... valid.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Bush ahead by 5% in Iowa and behind 3.3% in Missouri?

LAUGHABLE!  Bush may be behind in both, but he ain't plus 8.3% comparing Iowa to Missouri.  Maybe minus 8.3%, but not plus.  

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Im extremely skeptical of Zogbys integrity in this election year.  Doesn't it seem interesting that Zogby releases a bunch of state polls at the same time and also more interesting at the worst time for Bush in the polls due to Abu Gharib.  I would say most of those polls are wrong. Oregon is a dead heat with, I say to be a small Bush advantage.  Iowa is going to go for Kerry.  The Washington margin of Kerry needs to be oh I dont know cut off by about 4pts.

why are you so sure Bush is going to do so well in Washington? It's a pretty liberal state and the economy there is horrid.

[The Vorlon]

in fact, I do actually disagree with you a bit on the Fox/OD reliability... but that's for another thread

I don't follow anyone on blind faith, but I do consider the source.  

You at least seem to be a straight shooter.

Opinion Dynamics is a pretty darn good firm  There President John Gorman is an old polling combat vetern from a zillion years ago. - A Tad "old school" for my tastes, but still good.

It is also nice to have him in my "top tier" pollsters for optics - I have Democracy Corps in there, and didn't have a 'GOP' firm in there to balance it out.

I'd actually like to put Public Opinion Strategies polls up, but their stuff is all copyrighted and private.

<<I don't follow anyone on blind faith, but I do consider the source. >>

Good advice, today, tomorrow, anytime, any place..

<<You at least seem to be a straight shooter.>>

All I wanna do is call all 50 states correctly in 2004
(Got 48/50 in 2000)

[JohnFKennedy]

in fact, I do actually disagree with you a bit on the Fox/OD reliability... but that's for another thread

I don't follow anyone on blind faith, but I do consider the source.  

You at least seem to be a straight shooter.

Opinion Dynamics is a pretty darn good firm  There President John Gorman is an old polling combat vetern from a zillion years ago. - A Tad "old school" for my tastes, but still good.

It is also nice to have him in my "top tier" pollsters for optics - I have Democracy Corps in there, and didn't have a 'GOP' firm in there to balance it out.

I'd actually like to put Public Opinion Strategies polls up, but their stuff is all copyrighted and private.

<<I don't follow anyone on blind faith, but I do consider the source. >>

Good advice, today, tomorrow, anytime, any place..

<<You at least seem to be a straight shooter.>>

All I wanna do is call all 50 states correctly in 2004
(Got 48/50 in 2000)

LOL, you are pretty damn slick there Vorlon man. What about D.C.? you gonna call that right? .

[The Vorlon]

LOL, you are pretty damn slick there Vorlon man. What about D.C.? you gonna call that right? .

I have, at this early date, gone out on a limb and Called DC for Kerry, plus Utah and Wyoming for Bush.

I am waiting for more data before I call Rhode Island and Massachusetts for Kerry.

It's early, but I have Idaho and Alaska looking good for Bush.

[Andrew]

I can't say for sure how Zogby is working this, but I can say this:  I'm one of the Michigan likely voters in the sample.  Even though this is the first set of polls released, I've been answering Presidential surveys for a few months now--probably about ten times since Kerry became the presumptive nominee.

I'm guessing that Zogby's been fiddling with the polls, comparing the results to surveys taken traditionally, and so on, getting ready to actually release some.

There are a lot of demographic questions in the surveys, by the way--party ID, political ideology, gender, age, ethnic group, religion, location (rural, urban, etc.), income.  I think they are trying to be very careful on the screening.

It will be interesting to see how accurate (or inaccurate) these online polls turn out to be in November.

For what it's worth (and that's not much), the Michigan numbers seem reasonable to me.

[Andrew]

Here's a link to a piece on the Zogby website that discusses, in brief, internet polling:

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=830

[TeePee4Prez]

No way Kerry is ahead by that much in Pennsylvania.  8 points!?!?  No way.  Kerry maybe looking that good in Ohio, but I doubt that as well.  Missouri is Bush and Iowa is not that heavily pro-Bush, at least not yet.

Stop getting your panties into a bunch.  Pennsylvania is a WIDE state.  Hell, we both live 400 miles away.  In the Southeast corner of PA, Bush is virtually toast even among moderate Republicans.  I can definitely see Kerry up by 8 here since Gore ended up 4 1/2 over Bush here last time.  What makes you think Gore voters will go Bush this time?  And don't give me the "dead Democrat" speech.  I don't think PA's death rate far outnumbers it's birth rate that much and if anything, young voters are going Democratic.

[bullmoose88]

PA's current growth rate is what 3% during the 1990s, and slightly higher today?

A heckova lot larger than the big 0% during the 1980s.

Though its below the national average. Hence why we lose electoral votes.

[struct310]

Im extremely skeptical of Zogbys integrity in this election year.  Doesn't it seem interesting that Zogby releases a bunch of state polls at the same time and also more interesting at the worst time for Bush in the polls due to Abu Gharib.  I would say most of those polls are wrong. Oregon is a dead heat with, I say to be a small Bush advantage.  Iowa is going to go for Kerry.  The Washington margin of Kerry needs to be oh I dont know cut off by about 4pts.

why are you so sure Bush is going to do so well in Washington? It's a pretty liberal state and the economy there is horrid.

There is something brewing in Washington and many people see it.  The party there is revitalized more so than ever.  The ground organization is going to be amazing for the GOP. And they have a trifecta of strong Republican candidates: Bush for president, Nethercutt for Senate, and Rossi for governor.  There is also a sherrif running in Seattle-Bellevue CD8 for J. Dunns seat who looks highly likely to win.  They really are sick of liberal control there.  I obviously dont mean that Seattle or Tacoma are going to go for Bush, but he will get margins he needs in King county.