my theory on 2000, why Gore lost. 2004 will be different....

[SayNoToNader.com]

I've been thinking about this for a while now. Here's my theory on why Gore lost in 2000. It wasn't Nader, it wasn't even that Bush stole the election in Florida...

My theory is that many Democrats just figured Gore was a shoe-in, coming off a 2 term Clinton administration and running against a son of a failed Bush Sr., a son with pratically zero political experience, how could Gore possibly loose. So they stayed home.

I have a good feeling 2004 will be drastically different. Democrats are going to turn out in droves, as will the Greens and gold ole boy Jr. is going to get whipped !!

Or at least that's what I am hoping  

[zachman]

It wasn't that they felt over-confident, it was that they didn't like Gore that much and didn't want to get involved.

[CTguy]

Yes they willl... there is only so much of the religious right America can stomach before the people take a minute out of their election day to say Cut the Bullsh*t.

[Dave from Michigan]

I don't think your theory holds up yes maybe people though early on Gore would win but the election was very close so I don't think that many stayed home because it was so close. Bush won't get whipped he could lose but it will be close

[SayNoToNader.com]

Wow a Republican that thinks Bush could loose, that's refreshing  

Anyone know of any online pools for the election, I'm a betting man, would put money on a whippin' in 04 !

[Reaganfan]

Many political commentators even who are democrat say it is still possible for Bush to carry 40 states or more.

[7,052,770]

Many political commentators even who are democrat say it is still possible for Bush to carry 40 states or more.

but not likely

[CTguy]

Many political commentators even who are democrat say it is still possible for Bush to carry 40 states or more.

Bull.

[Kghadial]

There was definitely some Democrats who were happy to have had 8 years of a Democrat instead of Reagan/Bush and they may have very well became a bit too comfortable and didn't bother to vote.

There were definitely some Democrats who were upset with Clinton being too centrist for their tastes and punished Gore for Clinton/Gore being not ideologically pure enough.

Now that these people have learned the Bush Jr. is much much worse than his father (in their opinion, and mine for that matter) they are going to go out and vote.

Your theory may very well be true, our base is much larger and cohesive that Bush's this time around.  We have probably 51-54 million rock solid ABB and/or dem loyalists.  With such a contrasting candidate like Kerry few of them will be disenchanted because we picked Bush lite (some Kucinistas are upset). With Bush frantically waving at his base, it looks quite possible that Bush will lose.

Will he get whipped, Bush Jr. ? Probably not, but it could happen.  I don't think anyone predicted that the man from Hope could whip Bush Sr. like he did until after Labor day. Hell the man from Hope was in third place for a lot of the summer.

A whipping of Bush somes a lot less likely than a whipping of Kerry. Pretty hard to convince an ABBer to stop being that.

[Kghadial]

Many political commentators even who are democrat say it is still possible for Bush to carry 40 states or more.

Bull.

Considering that eleven states and one district had ten percent or greater margins for Gore:

DC                    76% margin
RI                     29% margin
Mass.                27% margin
New York          25% margin
Hawaii              18% margin
Connecticut      17%
Maryland          16%
NJ                     16%
Del.                   13%
Ill.                     12%
Cal.                   12%
Vermont            10%

Unless Bush all of sudden becomes Reagan-type likeable I think all eleven (thus only 39 for Bush) are solid beyond a doubt. I'd hazard to say that Washington and Maine (except for that one district) due to the high Nader factor last time around are also probably as safe as these too.  

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes they willl... there is only so much of the religious right America can stomach before the people take a minute out of their election day to say Cut the Bullsh*t.

It's talk like that that's putting so much of the American public off of the Democrats.  There's only so much religion-bashing America can take before people take a minute out of their election day to say Cut the Bullsh*t.

Case in point: the effort of Atheist Fundamentalists to strike "Under God" from the Pledge of Allegience.  Everyone with a brain knows that "Under God" is not a prayer, and it's not even an invocation of any particular faith.  Most of America understands that we invoke God as the basis for our nation and our society - we've been doing so since 1776.  Thomas Jefferson understood this when he penned the Declaration of Independence, and he wasn't even a Christian.  

Our culture is monotheistic, Judeo/Christian in nature.  Now, you can choose not to participate in that aspect of our culture, and we as a nation pride ourselves in giving our citizens that freedom.  BUT, that doesn't mean we are obligated to do away with the Judeo/Christian underpinnings of our culture, society, and law, just because it makes Atheists, Budhists, or Wiccans feel bad.  The single Atheist Fundamentalist who insists on removing all references to God from any public sphere is going to alienate far more Americans than ten televangelists ever could.

Another case in point: Republicans are running general attack ads against "Angry Democrats," and Dean's slam against "Fundamentalist Preachers" is part of a collage of Democrat nattering nabobs of negativity.

To sum up, if you think the Americans who are pissed at the religious right are going to come out in droves, that's nothing compared to how many Americans are pissed at the areligious left.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

With Bush frantically waving at his base, it looks quite possible that Bush will lose.

If this is a reference to Bush's push for the marriage amendment, I think your interpretations of this are a bit off.  

I hear a lot of liberal analysts proclaiming that the marriage amendment amounts to Bush distracting from his weakness on other issues (jobs, war in Iraq...) by "frantically waving at his base."  This is bad analysis.  Conservatives across the country had been pushing for this amendment, passing around signed petitions, etc, for months, while Bush was silent on the issue.  It wasn't until the clamor for this became so overwhelming across so much of America, that Bush saw he had no choice but to come out in support of it.

Bush was not frantically waving at his base.  His base was frantically waving at *him*.

If Bush does not support the marriage amendment, he faces millions of very disgruntled conservatives, who are not above letting Kerry win to send a message.  Even if Bush is riding relatively high approval in key issues, he *must* have this support.  So this is not necessarly a sign of Bush weakness.

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There is too much ABB-ism on the coasts, and too much Bush-support in Flyover Country for a blowout of any kind to occur.  2004 will be decided by fewer than 100 EV, and more likely will be a 30 EV contest.

[StevenNick]

Many political commentators even who are democrat say it is still possible for Bush to carry 40 states or more.

but not likely

There's no such thing as likely in politics.  If the campaign continues to progress as it has--if Kerry continues to fall apart--I think it's very likely that Bush will carry 40 states or more.  If Kerry recovers, is aided by what is perceived to be jobless growth and chaos in Iraq, as well as mistakes by the Bushies, Kerry could win.

[Ben.]

Many political commentators even who are democrat say it is still possible for Bush to carry 40 states or more.

but not likely

There's no such thing as likely in politics.  If the campaign continues to progress as it has--if Kerry continues to fall apart--I think it's very likely that Bush will carry 40 states or more.  If Kerry recovers, is aided by what is perceived to be jobless growth and chaos in Iraq, as well as mistakes by the Bushies, Kerry could win.

Kerry's falling apart?....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry's falling apart?....

In the real World? No.
In the World of people who spend too much time on the internet...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Many political commentators even who are democrat say it is still possible for Bush to carry 40 states or more.

but not likely

There's no such thing as likely in politics.  If the campaign continues to progress as it has--if Kerry continues to fall apart--I think it's very likely that Bush will carry 40 states or more.  If Kerry recovers, is aided by what is perceived to be jobless growth and chaos in Iraq, as well as mistakes by the Bushies, Kerry could win.

Kerry's falling apart?....

Probably referring to his recent stumbles, such as his "metting with world leaders who want to see Bush lose."  I wouldn't call that falling apart, though if this sort of thing continues for the next 7 months, Kerry doesn't stand a chance.

[Reaganfan]

First of all, many enjoyed the thought of a 2000 election return giving us a  President Gore, while others liked a return for a President Bush just a tad bit better. The way Gore sighed in the debates! Did Kennedy, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, or Clinton do that? No. IMO, each debate was a win for Bush except for the second, that was a tie. Either way, get over 2000. Gore lost to Bush. HE had 266 to Bush's 271. How could JEB set it up! Please. Plus, Republicans have a slight lead over past few elections:

1952
1956
1968
1972
1980
1984
1988
2000
2004- I think, since Bush is now back up in the polls. It may be a landslide like a 422-116 win for Bush.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Either way, get over 2000. Gore lost to Bush. HE had 266 to Bush's 271. How could JEB set it up! Please.

Besides all that, there should be a Constitutional amendment stating that if you can't win your own home state, you can't be President .  If Gore had won Tennessee, he'd be President today.  Has ANY other Presidential candidate lost an election by not winning his home state?  It's ludicrous.  That's not Jeb's fault, or W's fault, or even Nader's fault.  That's on Gore, plain and simple.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gore was distanced from his home state by 2000

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gore "lost" partly because he wasn't liberal enough and caused many liberals to support Nader. (Gore really didn't lose, since we all know the election was stolen, but that's beside the point right now.) Another factor was the media's clear support of Bush.

[MarkDel]

Gore "lost" partly because he wasn't liberal enough and caused many liberals to support Nader. (Gore really didn't lose, since we all know the election was stolen, but that's beside the point right now.) Another factor was the media's clear support of Bush.

Yeah..LOL...you guys keep telling yourself that. When was the last "true liberal" elected President of the United States?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Gore "lost" partly because he wasn't liberal enough and caused many liberals to support Nader. (Gore really didn't lose, since we all know the election was stolen, but that's beside the point right now.) Another factor was the media's clear support of Bush.

Yeah..LOL...you guys keep telling yourself that. When was the last "true liberal" elected President of the United States?

The real nasty wake-up call is going to come when the Left finds out that about half the of ABBers aren't liberal at all .

[MarkDel]

Gore "lost" partly because he wasn't liberal enough and caused many liberals to support Nader. (Gore really didn't lose, since we all know the election was stolen, but that's beside the point right now.) Another factor was the media's clear support of Bush.

Yeah..LOL...you guys keep telling yourself that. When was the last "true liberal" elected President of the United States?

The real nasty wake-up call is going to come when the Left finds out that about half the of ABBers aren't liberal at all .

Beef,

There's truth in what you say. But I do think that the loudest, and most sinister, ABB voices come from the hard left wing.

[Ben.]

     

Gore "lost" partly because he wasn't liberal enough and caused many liberals to support Nader. (Gore really didn't lose, since we all know the election was stolen, but that's beside the point right now.) Another factor was the media's clear support of Bush.

Yeah..LOL...you guys keep telling yourself that. When was the last "true liberal" elected President of the United States?

The real nasty wake-up call is going to come when the Left finds out that about half the of ABBers aren't liberal at all .

Beef,

There's truth in what you say. But I do think that the loudest, and most sinister, ABB voices come from the hard left wing.

I strongly oppose Bush and I'm a very partisan Dem at times... but my record of posts show I not really a liberal either economically or socially... Gore ran as a populist in 2000 IMHO and lost... its a shame... then again Bush ran as a moderate centrist, and look how that turned out... but a more liberal candidate wouldn’t win... Kerry is about as liberal as you can get and still have a shot at the white house...

If all these voters where poised to get  back into the process if they saw a "true liberal" why did Dean and Kucinich do so poorly in all those "open primaries"? Surely legions of this "liberal majority would have gone out and voted for them?... they must have forgot... yeah that’s it...  

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The real nasty wake-up call is going to come when the Left finds out that about half the of ABBers aren't liberal at all .

Beef,

There's truth in what you say. But I do think that the loudest, and most sinister, ABB voices come from the hard left wing.

They are certainly the ones that encourage the piling on.  But I think a lot of the Bush hate is coming out of the center.  My point is that the left wing seems to think that the Hate Bush Movement is a sign of a national shift to the left, when it really isn't.