2004 Senate campaign predictions

[StevenNick]

What do you all think about some of the upcoming Senate elections?

Here's my assessment:

There are at least six states that are almost guaranteed to be the site of some Senate seat turnovers.  In Illinois, the Republican incumbent has declined to seek reelection and considering that the GOP doesn't have much of a presence in the state, the seat could easily go democrat.  In North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, democratic incumbents have all anounced they're retiring (Edwards foolishly thinks he's going to be president).  All of these states seem to be good places for Republican gains.  In Alaska the current GOP senator is weak for a variety of reasons and she will most likely face a decent if not juggernaut democratic candidate in November.

And there are some other races that could be close if things go right for the GOP.  It's looking like John Thune may run against Tom Daschle in South Dakota.  Thune came within about 500 votes of unseating the other Democratic incumbent in 2002 and may at least make the race a real contest.  I've heard some speculation that because of some wacky things Daschle has said as minority leader that are unpopular with SD voters, he may actually be a weaker incumbent that Johnson was (the one who beat Thune by 500 votes.

There's some talk that John Breaux (D-LA) may retire.  An open senate seat in Louisiana would almost certainly produce a close election.

With the right candidate, republicans could make a tight race of the upcoming senate race in Nevada.

Washington is probably the republicans least best hope of a gain, but it could happen if Bush wins the state by any kind of convincing margin.

What are your thoughts?

[jravnsbo]

GA, NC< SC all go GOP

IL goes Dem

FL, LA tossups

AK stays GOP despite strong challenge.

PA stays GOP with Spector.

OK stays GOP.

SD-take "MINORITY LEADER" off of Dasschle and Thune beats him soundly.  However, with it besides stealing election with last precint in 2002, and not just making partisan charge people are still suspicious about returns and I can go in more depth.  But Daschle and Johnson effectively sold that the GOP state needed to vote for Johnson to keep Daschle Majority leader and they had Johnson on Budget cmmte to bring home pork.  Then WHAM GOP sweep and Daschle is in Minority and Budget seat is less significant int he minority.  However if Thune does not run , Daschle wins easy.

Dems vulnerable in NV, AR, WI, ND but GOP struggling to find top candidates.

WA and CA could be ones where Dems need to spend more money than originally though but lean DEm.

Lastly what will Inouye do in HI?  He will be 80 when he runs again.  If he runs, he wins.  The man is a hero, MOH , etc.  However, some Dems worry about GOP strength growing with Gov Lingle's (R) Win in 2002, plus she would name a replacement with Inouye death.  One never knows when one is 80.  Dems worry that Lingle will get a Senate seat down the line.

--also minor now, but still possible if Lieberman or Kerry is on ticket and would win, then GOP governors would appoint GOP replacements.

--also goes for Sen Bayh who i think is interested in VP or Prez in 2008, as he is up for reelection though this year, but safe if he runs.

[Nym90]

The South Dakota Senate race was stolen in 2002? Yes, I'd like to hear what your basis for that accusation is, and also your explanation of why Thune didn't demand a recount.

[jravnsbo]

ok this is how it was reported on election night, throughout the campaign and afterwards in the SD papers.

OK we all know about voter fraud BEFORE the election by the Dems.  Voter registration and people were charged in that but who knows how many were effective I have a personal friend that saw one of the fraudulent voter registration forms before and even worked with AG's office on it.

Next on election night - a judge erroneously allowed a heavily Democrat county to stay open an extra hour, b/c he declared it wasn't fair as the county was split along the time line.  THat decision has been severly critized and it will be interesting to see if he survives the retention election this year.  The Legislature has since applied to the Feds to change the boundaries of the time line to avoid this again.

Next there were 2 counties that did not report whent he rest did.  One was up by Mitchell and it could not report because the voting machine broke and it could not count the votes untila part was brought from Omaha, NE about 5-6 hrs from Mitchell.   So then the only other county was on the Reservation and did not report any problems then or since.  Also no one can explain the delay.  So the people from Mitcheell went half way to Omaha and met someone to pick up the part and made it back to Mitchell before this rez county voted.  After all night of getting this part the county reported and the statewide total was then set at around 1000 vote lead for Thune.  Then wow miraculaously within an hour the rez deliver 1500 votes for Johnson and the win.

Even local Democrats said it looked bad and as fishy as could be.  Thune was urged by many across the state to demand a recount and fight basically Gore style to the bitter end b/c of the irregularities and he said no.  He hinted at that he thought he got cheated but wouldn't say it and said he had every right to fight on, but would put the state ahead of his own victory, and essentially back to fight another day.  

So much for the argument that the GOP would drag the people through a divisive recount.  

Thune is a class act and should be in the Senate and without the minority leader title (which at best Daschle will have till 2006) Thune would beat him.  Johnson is not a bad guy, better than lot of them in the senate too, but he didn't win in a lot of the people's minds out here, both GOP and Dem.

[Nym90]

Well, if there were irregularities, then Thune should have demanded a recount. I utterly fail to see how he is putting the state ahead of himself, or doing what's best for the state, by not demanding a recount. If the election was stolen, it's a lot worse for the state to allow that to occur than it is to demand a recount. Same thing with Nixon in 1960, that argument just doesn't make any sense at all when you think about it, and because of this I'm inclined to think that it is just cover for someone who wants people to believe that he was cheated when he really wasn't. If Thune had demand a recount and lost, he would have looked like a sore loser and then he wouldn't be able to rile up the party base with the whole "we was robbed" argument.
Just because that one county reported late for Johnson is not enough evidence directly of a conspiracy. Was the vote total way out of line with what would otherwise have been expected, given past election results there? As for allegations of fraud before the election, are there specific allegations of who, what, when, where, and how it happened?
I don't profess to be an expert at all on what went on in South Dakota, but given the fact that the GOP controls the state government and the federal justice department, they should have launched an investigation if they felt that they were cheated.

[jravnsbo]

well the precinct was supposed to go for Johnson but about 60-40% or 70-30 at worst and with those totals Thune wins.  However it came in about 90-95% for Johnson.

Yes quite a demand for recount , but also a lot of people thought , oh no here we go again we are now Florida.  

Plus I'll admit GOP was giddy with sweeps everywhere else in the nation and didn't care as much as they should.  

I do wish Daschle didn't have minority leader title as I know he'd get beat.  Or if he got a rematch with Johnson now.

However the wildcard is the car crash of Gov now Rep Janklow.  HE hit a man and killed him in a car accident and is now charged with manslaughter, which is a felony in SD.  If convicted of a felony he would not be able to vote int eh House and likely resign forcing a special election.  If he has to resign there is only a 90 day period before the special election.  The Democrat Janklow beat in 2002 by 54-46 is already running again and she has name ID and probably would have beat anyone but an icon like Janklow.  

So lots of party pressure on Thune to either run for Senate where he would be a slight underdog, like 51-47 in latest poll.  Not bad for this far out and all daschle's incumbancy advantages and that daschle has been running ads all of 2003 and campaigning all year  vs running for Representative and saving the seat, which he held prior to 2002 senate run.  

Thune wanted to run for Gov in 2002 though and would have won without spending a dime ( esentially what Gov rounds did) and would like to be back in SD.

GOP I think could win the House seat if just a regular election but if Dem wins in special election should would be incumbant and have a better chance then obviously to retain the seat.  She is only 32, but has barely lived in SD since High school, but has stayed since 2002 loss.

So pressure on Thune to decide.  However this week is the Janklow trial.  If he does not get convicted of the felony he will serve out this term and quit I believe as he is politically done with a man's death, but GOP would have a shot at retaining the seat ina long campaign.

Also noted Bush won SD 60-36 in 2000 or something like that it was by 25% and that will help GOP on all races this time around.

So Thune could be faced with the race he would win ina waltz (House) vs highly competitive one (Senate); just like 2002 waltz-House vs tough-senate (lost by 524 votes).

gotta love politics.

[DarthKosh]

Well, if there were irregularities, then Thune should have demanded a recount. I utterly fail to see how he is putting the state ahead of himself, or doing what's best for the state, by not demanding a recount. If the election was stolen, it's a lot worse for the state to allow that to occur than it is to demand a recount. Same thing with Nixon in 1960, that argument just doesn't make any sense at all when you think about it, and because of this I'm inclined to think that it is just cover for someone who wants people to believe that he was cheated when he really wasn't. If Thune had demand a recount and lost, he would have looked like a sore loser and then he wouldn't be able to rile up the party base with the whole "we was robbed" argument.
Just because that one county reported late for Johnson is not enough evidence directly of a conspiracy. Was the vote total way out of line with what would otherwise have been expected, given past election results there? As for allegations of fraud before the election, are there specific allegations of who, what, when, where, and how it happened?
I don't profess to be an expert at all on what went on in South Dakota, but given the fact that the GOP controls the state government and the federal justice department, they should have launched an investigation if they felt that they were cheated.

If you tried to say there was voter fraud on the reservations you would have been brandded a racist period.  Thune is the rightful holder of that seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If all you Republicans think that Thune was cheated out of the Senate, would you agree that so was Cleland?

[jravnsbo]

How was Cleland cheated?  Make your case as I did for Thune.

I'll listen as you did.

[Demrepdan]

Cleland was a triple amputee who served his country in Vietnam, and lost the election basically because his opponent  did some slimey tatics and said he was UNPATRIOTIC. Maybe he should have lost more limbs.

[migrendel]

Only had one left, Dan, but of course Saxby Chambliss had that third leg he would have gladly given for his country.

[jravnsbo]

oh tactics-so no stolen election story?

Plus Chamliss used the NO votes on the honeland defense against him, an issue.  You may not have liked it but it was politics.  Apparently there wasn't a backlash against Chambliss for showing the people of GA how Cleland voted.

[DarthKosh]

If all you Republicans think that Thune was cheated out of the Senate, would you agree that so was Cleland?

No Clelands record is what lost him the seat.

[opebo]

Yes, Thune was clearly cheated.  Cleland was defeated by a big margin.  Election fraud can probably shift the vote by a few fractions of a percent, but I believe Saxby Chambliss won by something like several percent of the vote.  Besides a Democratic Senator from Georgia is even more bizarre than a Democratic Senator from South Dakota.

[opebo]

Question:  Assuming big gains for the GOP in the Senate in '04, and a favorable climate for '06, could G.W. Bush have a filibuster-proof Senate between '06 and '08?
Exciting prospect judicially!

[jravnsbo]

Zell Miller said in his book that Cleland wanted to stand with Dem and putting restrictions on how Homeland Security was structured rather than make it pass and protect America.  11 votes against it cost him the race.

Yes, Thune was clearly cheated.  Cleland was defeated by a big margin.  Election fraud can probably shift the vote by a few fractions of a percent, but I believe Saxby Chambliss won by something like several percent of the vote.  Besides a Democratic Senator from Georgia is even more bizarre than a Democratic Senator from South Dakota.

[jravnsbo]

So will Kat Harris run in Fl or Gary Hart in CO?  seems to be the buzz lately in senate news.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Besides a Democratic Senator from Georgia is even more bizarre than a Democratic Senator from South Dakota.

WHU??
Are you stoned or something?

BTW there have been allegations by Democrat supporters that there was fraud involving an electronic voting system.
I don't belive this myself(despite being something of a die-hard cynic. I can imagine it happening in AL or TX but not GA), and think that Chambliss's vile campaign(and if a Democrat did that I would say the same) was the reason for it.

[jravnsbo]

The democrats continue to say that campaign was bad, but then why didn't the people rise up and produce a backlash?  Well there was a backlash but against the democrats in GA, Senator, one of the houses, Speaker of House and governor all got the boot.  

Why no backlash, because the charges were true.  Cleland was voting very liberal in the senate and against the homeland security dept and for special interests.

[opebo]

Besides a Democratic Senator from Georgia is even more bizarre than a Democratic Senator from South Dakota.

WHU??
Are you stoned or something?

I only meant that Georgia is a Republican state now, getting more so every year.  I would expect Democratic Senators from Georgia will be exception rather than the rule for the forseeable future.

[Paul]

opebo, the thought of a filibuster-proof Senate for GW to work with in a hypothetical second term makes my mouth water as well, I just don't see it happening.  It would take a massive Bush landslide in November combined with a second unprecidented midterm gain of Senate seats in '06.  You also need to remember that two of the most co-operative Democrats (Miller, Breux) are retiring; Miller always votes for cloture on debates over judicial nominees.
However, for debates over Supreme Court nominees, don't be suprised if Bill Frist busts out the much talked about "Nuclear Option."  The idea is he could simply suspend regular Senate rules and call for an immediate up or down vote.  But that gets messy.

[StevenNick]

I don't know that Bush'll ever get a truly fillibuster-proof senate, but I think we'll get very close in 2004.  I wouldn't be a bit surprised if republicans swept senate races across the country and ended up with 57 or 58 seats in the senate.  And considering that there will still be some of the more moderate democrats in the senate to compromise, it probably will be a virtually fillibuster-proof senate.

We could get extremely close this year if we defended Alaska and Oklahoma and we won in Florida, Georgia, NC, SC, Louisiana, South Dakota, Nevada, Washington, and/or California.

I suppose it isn't out of the question for us to defend Illinois, but I doubt it.

[DarthKosh]

If all you Republicans think that Thune was cheated out of the Senate, would you agree that so was Cleland?

Cleland ran a horrible race.  Thune lost because of voter fraud.

[StevenNick]

So will Kat Harris run in Fl or Gary Hart in CO?  seems to be the buzz lately in senate news.

What fun it will all be!!

I can already imagine all the democratic wailing about Katherine Harris and election 2000 and boo hoo hoo.  In fact, I think if democrats bitch about election 2000 too much, they may hurt their chances of defending that seat from republicans.  The voters may see the dems as being stuck in the past while the GOP is trying to move forward.

As for Hart, I predict he will meet the same fate as Mondale in 2002 presuming that he runs against Campbell.

[DarthKosh]

So will Kat Harris run in Fl or Gary Hart in CO?  seems to be the buzz lately in senate news.

What fun it will all be!!

I can already imagine all the democratic wailing about Katherine Harris and election 2000 and boo hoo hoo.  In fact, I think if democrats bitch about election 2000 too much, they may hurt their chances of defending that seat from republicans.  The voters may see the dems as being stuck in the past while the GOP is trying to move forward.

As for Hart, I predict he will meet the same fate as Mondale in 2002 presuming that he runs against Campbell.

Harris will not even come close to winning in Florida.