Rasmussen Daily tracking poll

[Pollwatch99]

Zogby leans left but don't discount him.

Last 2 days in Rasmussen daily tracking poll shows a slight drift towards Kerry in Florida(7 day rolling average).  Kerry up +1 yesterday, +2 today.  Not so good.

Dead even in Penn as of today.  

Rasmussen has Bush at 213 electoral college with 72 electoral votes where Bush has a small lead (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).  Note Penn just went dead even today.

He has Florida and New Mexico too close to call.

Kerry slight lead for Minn and Oregon

Still a tough race.

[mddem2004]

This was interesting from todays ABC's "The Note":

"The (Bush) campaign leadership was shaken by recent assertions by three senior Republican senators — Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Richard Lugar of Indiana and John McCain of Arizona — suggesting that the United States is facing deep trouble in Iraq, and that the White House may be in denial about the need for a new approach."

"'They are clearly worried that this could take a nasty turn,' said one senior Republican strategist who joined a conference call on Monday about how to respond to Mr. Kerry's counterattacks. 'The headlines are getting to them."

There's the fact that two of America's leading news organizations (who poll together) are about to release some horserace numbers that are going to suggest a tight race and tease out the "Kerry closes the gap with momentum" storyline for which the press hungers. (As Joe Lockhart would say, EVERYONE in Washington knows about these poll numbers … ..)

[A18]

Rasmussen is a junk poll compared to Gallup.

The old media will no doubt play on any numbers it can to make it appear Kerry is "catching up" in order to put the idea in people's heads and make it happen. Basic psychology.

[Pollwatch99]

I know Zogby leans left and view his polls that way.

Thought Rasmussen was reasonable in 2002.  Any other thoughts on Rasmussen out there?

[A18]

We keep getting polls like Bush +7, +3, then +11, and the circle starts again.

Things could change, but right now, Bush leads

[Pollwatch99]

Agree think we've got a 5-6% overall lead which should provide a nice overall electoral victory.  However, the lead needs to be larger.

The media will unleash more on Bush soon.  They tried to tie Bush to Swift Boats but Kerry gets a pass for Memogate.  Not one Kerry aid has said they didn't coordinate with CBS.  They only say they didn't have anything to do with the memo's.  Save old crap; democrats answering in legal mumbo gumbo avoiding the answer and media not asking right questions because they favor Kerry.  Ultimately, that will narrow Bush's lead

[A18]

Sorry, but my nomorelies detector is flashing. I think we have one.

Not quite sure what it is... Could be wrong, if so, I apoligize.

[The Vorlon]

Many of Rasmussens min-micro-bot tracking polls are showing weird things.  He has had Bush up 10-15% in North Carolina for several weeks, which not even the Bush campaign believes.

On the other hand he has Ohio very close while Mason Dixon, Gallup, in fact almost everybody except Zogby has Bush up high single digits.

I just don't trust the bot-poll state samples.

I barely maybe kinda a little trust his tracking poll nationally... butbarely...