http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/news/special_packages/election2004/9700035.htmPlain Dealer poll: Bush leads Kerry in Ohio 50-42Associated Press
CLEVELAND - President Bush leads Sen. John Kerry by 50 percent to 42 percent in Ohio, a state considered crucial by both campaigns, a new poll indicates. Two percent of those surveyed supported Ralph Nader.
The poll commissioned by The Plain Dealer for its Sunday edition was conducted from Sept. 10 to Tuesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C. It was based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote Nov. 2. The margin of error was 2.5 percentage points.
A May poll by the newspaper showed Bush leading 47 percent to 41 percent. Six percent in the most recent poll said they were undecided, down from 9 percent in May.
A CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll taken Sept. 4 to 7 showed 52 percent of people surveyed in Ohio said they would support Bush and 44 percent backed Kerry. Two percent of the 661 likely voters questioned by telephone said they would vote for Nader, and 4 percent were undecided.
Bush beat Al Gore in Ohio by 3.6 percentage points in 2000. No Republican has won the presidency without Ohio.
Jennifer Palmieri, a spokeswoman for the Kerry campaign in Ohio, said the poll results run counter to other polls that show the race much closer.
Bush spokesman Kevin Madden downplayed the Bush lead in the poll, but he said the president's organization of 64,000 volunteers in Ohio would help Bush win.
Voters surveyed in the Plain Dealer poll said Bush would do a better job of safeguarding America, 55 percent to 36 percent, and handling the situation in Iraq, 54 percent to 40 percent.
The poll indicated that some voters have yet to connect with Kerry and his policies, reflected by the 66 percent of Kerry's supporters who said their dislike of Bush was their top reason for backing Kerry.
Among those surveyed who said they are planning to vote for Bush, 55 percent cited his character and integrity as the top reason, followed by his leadership in the war on terror.
"The numbers will not make Kerry happy but will not make the Bush people breathe easier either," said John Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. "That's not a big enough lead to guarantee victory."
Green said the lead could be vulnerable based on turnout, upcoming debates and how issues play out, such as Iraq, between now and the election.
