I was just at his website,
http://www.campaignline.com/, and he finally has his odds for individual states posted. As of now, he has Kerry favored in NH and WV, while Bush is favored in WI. Iowa is 50-50 (the only one he has listed like that. Arkansas and Minnesota were the only states where no odds were up (assume they stay with the 2000 winning party).
By his math, Bush would be at 279 (starting with his 2000 wins at 278) (-4 NH, -5 WV and +10 WI)
while Kerry is at 252 (his count starts at 260 - the Gore states) (+4 NH, +5 WV, -10 WI, and -7 IA)
Iowa's 7 not allocated
Ohio and Florida are both 30 to 29 (50.8%) in favor of Bush right now.
He still sees it close from this map...he has a pretty good track record, though I think I remember him missing the CO Senate Race in 2002, and he had the NH Senate race a tie, and didnt call a winner.