Watch KY and IN

[Shira]

If the elections are not close then you would know ahead of time who would be the next president. If the elections are close, then watch IN and KY on 11/02 at 6 PM.
Bush is going to win these two states. But if he gets 53% in KY and 54% in IN (or below) then you know for sure that he lost the general elections. If, on the other hand, he gets around 60% in these states then it means a nationwide victory.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Even more simply: if either of these states is "too close to call" right at 6 pm, that is very good news for Kerry.

[Keystone Phil]

Even more simply: if either of these states is "too close to call" right at 6 pm, that is very good news for Kerry.

If either is "too close to call" Kerry will win. Republicans win IN and KY by double digits and if Bush can't win by double digits, he doesn't have a chance in states he hopes to pick up.

Reality: Neither will be too close to call.

[Shira]

Even more simply: if either of these states is "too close to call" right at 6 pm, that is very good news for Kerry.

54% is stronger than "too close to call". So if Bush gets 54% Kerry could start to celebrate.

[© tweed]

Networks don't call states unless a candidate has a 10% lead in the exit polling.

I remember Alabama wasn't called right away, and Bush won it by 16-17%.

[Shira]

Networks don't call states unless a candidate has a 10% lead in the exit polling.

I remember Alabama wasn't called right away, and Bush won it by 16-17%.

They don't have to call. Only provide the numbers.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Networks don't call states unless a candidate has a 10% lead in the exit polling.

I remember Alabama wasn't called right away, and Bush won it by 16-17%.

They don't have to call. Only provide the numbers.

But the networks will probably call these states before they show any numbers.

[© tweed]

They don't have to call. Only provide the numbers.

But they still do make projections, obviously.  Remember Florida?

[MODU]

Media shouldn't be calling the states election night anyways, or at least until the polls in Hawaii and Alaska close.

[© tweed]

Media shouldn't be calling the states election night anyways, or at least until the polls in Hawaii and Alaska close.

We aren't going through a Canadian blackout coverage crapscene in the United States.  It isn't the proper solution.

[Gustaf]

There's a point to that, however a deviation of a few points in Indiana and Kentucky doesn't necessarily translate into the same kind of swings in Ohio, Florida, etc.

In reality, uniform swings aren't necessarily uniform.

[classical liberal]

I think that KY and IN will be 54-45 and 55-44 respectively

[MODU]

Media shouldn't be calling the states election night anyways, or at least until the polls in Hawaii and Alaska close.

We aren't going through a Canadian blackout coverage crapscene in the United States.  It isn't the proper solution.

No, but it does influence the polls on the West Coast when the East coast polls close and the figures start hitting the air.  This isn't necessarily fair in regards to voting, now is it?

[zorkpolitics]

I may be wrong but as I remember it, in 2000 the networks held off calling quite a few states that Bush won by easily (VA, GA), but rapidly called states Gore won by less (MI), and of course the FL fiasco.  So if the early states are too close to call this Nov. one should be cautious, especially since this will be the first election the Networks use a new system.
(As shown here the Networks overestimated Gore vote in FL by 7% )
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2000/11/10/politics/main248524.shtml
Addiitonal claims of early calls for Gore:
http://i.cnn.net/cnn/2001/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/02/cnn.report/cnn.pdf)

[© tweed]

No, but it does influence the polls on the West Coast when the East coast polls close and the figures start hitting the air.  This isn't necessarily fair in regards to voting, now is it?

No, it's not.  But it is better than what Canada decided to do.

Plus, with the internet, cell phones, etc. it would be impossible to regulate the flow of information.

[Shira]

Bush will get in OH 7.5% less than in KY.
Getting 54% in KY means 47.5% in OH which for all practical matters means a defeat.

[© tweed]

He will get higher than 54% in Kentucky.  He got 57% in 2000.

[Shira]

He will get higher than 54% in Kentucky.  He got 57% in 2000.

That's exactly why I claim that 54% in KY indicates a nationwide defeat.
In this case he would go down in ALL the states by 2% to 4%.
KY is not unique.

[agcatter]

Agreed that this will be the first indicator of the night to come.  However, are you saying that if Kerry wins NY by "only" 22 instead of the 25 Gore won by in 2000 that Kerry is toast.  Doubt it.

[Shira]

If Kerry wins NY by "only" 60%  he will lose the election.
If Bush wins WY by "only" 65%...............etc.

[agcatter]

A few points variance in most states is expected both for and against each candidate.  Doesn't mean a trend.  That's too rigid.

[Shira]

In the above NY and WY examples the changes are 5% which is significant and can be used as an indicator.

Your claim could have been a right one if the changes were 2%.

[ATFFL]

Other factors can effect turnout, nicluding weather, competitive local races, and size of the staff in the state.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Media shouldn't be calling the states election night anyways, or at least until the polls in Hawaii and Alaska close.

We aren't going through a Canadian blackout coverage crapscene in the United States.  It isn't the proper solution.

Canada doesn't do this anymore...in the election a couple weeks ago they broadcast the results as soon as the each province's polls closes.  

Of course, more than 2/3 of the districts closed at the exact same time, so it wasn't a big deal.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Gore won Maryland in 2000 by a higher % than Clinton won it in 1996.  By this standard, Gore should have won by a bigger lastslide than Clinton nationwide, just by looking at Maryland.  

Yet if compare the % Dem in MD compared to the national average, you'd see a swing of 10% in the span of just one election.  These swings happen....they do not necessarily represent national trends.