New Washington poll...

[millwx]

Don't know the quality of the firm and the poll was done for a Dem, so the question(s) may have posed with a slightly Dem-favorable slant.  However, the sample is larger than the recent Moore poll, and it is an LV poll rather than RV (Moore was RV).  So, this might be pretty reliable...

Poll conducted June 24th-28th by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates.  Respondents were 800 LVs.

Kerry 49%  Bush 41%  Other/Unsure 10%

[The Vorlon]

Don't know the quality of the firm and the poll was done for a Dem, so the question(s) may have posed with a slightly Dem-favorable slant.  However, the sample is larger than the recent Moore poll, and it is an LV poll rather than RV (Moore was RV).  So, this might be pretty reliable...

Poll conducted June 24th-28th by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates.  Respondents were 800 LVs.

Kerry 49%  Bush 41%  Other/Unsure 10%

Link?

GOP firms says Tied
DEM firm says Kerry +8

Average = Kerry +4 = "about" right

[millwx]

Link?

Another one of those PollingReport subscriber pages.  So, I have no link or detailed info.  

I can tell you this... it was conducted for Senator Patty Murray.  And, believable or not, it shows her with a hefty, but not unreasonable (but bigger than the Moore poll showed) lead over Nethercutt... 56%-33%.

I agree... Kerry +4% sounds reasonable.  And the Mason-Dixon poll in June showed exactly that... Kerry by 4%.  One of those "non-tossup tossups"... within 5%, but clearly leaning one way.

[The Vorlon]

Link?

Another one of those PollingReport subscriber pages.  So, I have no link or detailed info.  

I can tell you this... it was conducted for Senator Patty Murray.  And, believable or not, it shows her with a hefty, but not unreasonable (but bigger than the Moore poll showed) lead over Nethercutt... 56%-33%.

I agree... Kerry +4% sounds reasonable.  And the Mason-Dixon poll in June showed exactly that... Kerry by 4%.  One of those "non-tossup tossups"... within 5%, but clearly leaning one way.

Wow... The Murray campaign poll shows her doing well, while the Nethercutt Campaign poll shows him doing well...

I am "Shocked... shocked I say..."

[millwx]

Wow... The Murray campaign poll shows her doing well, while the Nethercutt Campaign poll shows him doing well...

Nethercutt's problem is that "doing well" is defined by trailing by 10%.

Murray's job ratings have not been terribly high.  Is Nethercutt that bad?  Could he win an election for dogcatcher?

[The Vorlon]

Wow... The Murray campaign poll shows her doing well, while the Nethercutt Campaign poll shows him doing well...

Nethercutt's problem is that "doing well" is defined by trailing by 10%.

Murray's job ratings have not been terribly high.  Is Nethercutt that bad?  Could he win an election for dogcatcher?

It is still very early in the Senate campaign.

Actually, down 10%, if true, at this stage of the game would be pretty good given he is basically unknown outside the spokane area.

Nethercutt is actually a pretty good candidate, but he is unknown and has no money - which is a tough hill to climb in any state, and an even tougher hill to climb for a Republican in Washington.

Murray is not a brutally bad Senator by any means, but nobody would ever call her a heavyweight.

The consensus on Murray is she is vulnerable and beatable - the consensus is also that Nethercutt is not likely to be the guy to do it unless he gets a HUGE influx of RNC cash to do it.

Washington is probably 6th or 7th on the GOP's list of potential Senate pickups, and unless Nethercutt gains some traction on his own and/or the GOP is doing REALLY well in the southern open senate seats, it seems unlikely the RNC will jump in with the cash Nethercutt needs.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't think Washington is in play, I think you'll see that by the end of the summer.  I think Oregon will follow that trend, I just don't see Bush playting well in the Pacific in the end.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Pacific Northwest also has the worst economy in the country. And Nader's not going to be as big a factor there as last time.