Poll says Kerry could beat Bush

[Wakie]

NEW YORK (AFP) - Democrat John Kerry could beat President George W. Bush if the US presidential election were held today, according to a national poll.

Kerry, a senator for the state of Massachusetts, would net 49 percent of the national vote against 46 percent for Bush, the Newsweek poll showed.

Kerry is also in front of rivals for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, leading the field of seven with 30 percent support.

He is followed by North Carolina Senator John Edwards with 13 percent.

Former Vermont governor Howard Dean, once the frontrunner, was down sharply at 12 percent, tied with retired army general Wesley Clark.

With a one-percentage-point margin, however, the trailing three are in a statistical dead heat. Dean was at 24 percent in Newsweek's last poll two weeks ago but has seen his support erode after failing to win the Iowa caucuses won by Kerry.

Poll respondents, however, did not appear to have great faith in any of the Democratic candidates.

While 52 percent of those polled said they did not want to see Bush re-elected, a total of 78 percent said it was either very likely or somewhat likely that Bush would win a second term.

[Gustaf]

Grrr...this was my piece of news, I already posted it on another thread, since I wasn't sure on whether it was worthy of a therad of its own...but feel free, just be my guest....

[© tweed]

And another poll taken the same day shows Bush could beat Kerry!

[Gustaf]

And another poll taken the same day shows Bush could beat Kerry!

The Newsweek poll indicated close races, regardless of who the Dem nominee was.

[12th Doctor]

There are some polls that show Bush beating Kerry in Massachusetts.  What's your point?

[Gustaf]

There are some polls that show Bush beating Kerry in Massachusetts.  What's your point?

What polls?

[© tweed]

There are some polls that show Bush beating Kerry in Massachusetts.  What's your point?

That was 2 years ago.

[Dave from Michigan]

wasn't  the one poll within the margin of error.

[opebo]

This poll gave me a scare, I'll admit.  But I'm sure we're going to have to get used to a lot of close, scary polling before the general.  I can only reassure myself that so far he hasn't started campaigning.

[Inmate Trump]

Didn't Dukakis poll something like 17 points ahead of Bush (41) in 1988?

Just a thought.......

[12th Doctor]

Didn't Dukakis poll something like 17 points ahead of Bush (41) in 1988?

Just a thought.......

Yes he did.  And Mondale was leading Reagan at this time in the '84 election.

[Gustaf]

Didn't Dukakis poll something like 17 points ahead of Bush (41) in 1988?

Just a thought.......

Yes he did.  And Mondale was leading Reagan at this time in the '84 election.

Clinton was in 3rd place ni 1992 and Carter led Ford by 31%, just a few months before the election. Carter still won, but it was really close in the end.

[Wakie]

My point in posting this article and creating this thread is to point out that this election is going to be closer than many people seem to expect.  On another thread I made predictions about what states I think are "in play".  This included the traditional ones (PA, FL, NM) but also some unusual ones that have experienced extraordinary changes over the last few years (MN, NV, etc).  I was blasted as being way too optimistic about the Dems chances and told that Bush would crush any Dem.

I'm just saying that I believe this election is way too early to call.  I think it will be a tight race, and I'd say that this article points it out.

[Gustaf]

My point in posting this article and creating this thread is to point out that this election is going to be closer than many people seem to expect.  On another thread I made predictions about what states I think are "in play".  This included the traditional ones (PA, FL, NM) but also some unusual ones that have experienced extraordinary changes over the last few years (MN, NV, etc).  I was blasted as being way too optimistic about the Dems chances and told that Bush would crush any Dem.

I'm just saying that I believe this election is way too early to call.  I think it will be a tight race, and I'd say that this article points it out.

I don't know if I blasted you...I still think that Bush will win, but I agree that a Dem win is now much more possible. I have personally never "called" the election, just stated that Bush is a huge favourite.

[© tweed]

With Dean out of the mix, this will be a very close election.

Edwards probably would beat Bush.  I'm the most pessimistic Dem out there, and I think Edwards would win.
Kerry would have a chance, but he would lose the whole south, which puts you 153 down from the start.

[Gustaf]

With Dean out of the mix, this will be a very close election.

Edwards probably would beat Bush.  I'm the most pessimistic Dem out there, and I think Edwards would win.
Kerry would have a chance, but he would lose the whole south, which puts you 153 down from the start.

It also depends on the key-factors of economy and Iraq/terrorism. If these continues to improve, Bush will be hard to beat, but I think that if the economy takes another down-turn, or there isn't a fast recovery, Bush will most likely lose.

[brett]

Carter had a 63% - 29% lead over Ford in July of 1976 and won 50% - 48 %

Both Hart and Mondale had slight leads over Reagan during the 1984 campaign and Mondale lost 59% - 41%

In 1980, Reagan had only a 3 point lead in final days and won 51% - 41% carrying 44 states

And let us not forget in 2000 Bush was holding about a 5% lead in final days and lost by a half a point, but won the electoral vote 271 - 266.  

[© tweed]

Carter had a 63% - 29% lead over Ford in July of 1976 and won 50% - 48 %

Both Hart and Mondale had slight leads over Reagan during the 1984 campaign and Mondale lost 59% - 41%

In 1980, Reagan had only a 3 point lead in final days and won 51% - 41% carrying 44 states

And let us not forget in 2000 Bush was holding about a 5% lead in final days and lost by a half a point, but won the electoral vote 271 - 266.  

More evidence that polls mean nothing until After the conventions.  call me in September.

[Gustaf]

Carter had a 63% - 29% lead over Ford in July of 1976 and won 50% - 48 %

Both Hart and Mondale had slight leads over Reagan during the 1984 campaign and Mondale lost 59% - 41%

In 1980, Reagan had only a 3 point lead in final days and won 51% - 41% carrying 44 states

And let us not forget in 2000 Bush was holding about a 5% lead in final days and lost by a half a point, but won the electoral vote 271 - 266.  

There seem to be no real lesson to be learned as to whether Dems or Reps, challengers or incumbants, are the ones to go down in the end.

In 1980, Carter's early concession added to the defeat.

[Nym90]

Yes, polls mean nothing before the conventions, in terms of predicting the final result. Dukakis led Bush by 17 in July 1988, Bush led Gore by about 20 in January 2000, Carter led Reagan by 30 points in January 1980 and still maintained a substaintial lead even into June, Clinton was running 20 points behind Bush in January 1992 and in 3rd place, and was still running 3rd as late as June, Carter was 30 points ahead of Ford in summer 1976. Mondale was never ahead of Reagan in calendar year 1984 though, at least not in the Gallup poll. Maybe in a different poll he was.

[© tweed]

I think Mondale came within 3% of Reagan in the summer on 1984 and Reagan routinely was shown losing to a generic Dem before the Dem nominee was decided.

[swami]

Of course Kerry shows well in the polls now. He's had a free ride for 10 days. NO one--not even his Democrat opponents--is beating up on him. Plus, next to Dean, he appears close to mainstream.
That will change when, and if, Kerry gets closer to the nomination. By July, he'll be "another Massachusetts liberal" and won't come within 6 points of W in the fall.

[© tweed]

Of course Kerry shows well in the polls now. He's had a free ride for 10 days. NO one--not even his Democrat opponents--is beating up on him. Plus, next to Dean, he appears close to mainstream.
That will change when, and if, Kerry gets closer to the nomination. By July, he'll be "another Massachusetts liberal" and won't come within 6 points of W in the fall.

A classic one-post conservative here at the Atlas.

[StevenNick]

Of course Kerry shows well in the polls now. He's had a free ride for 10 days. NO one--not even his Democrat opponents--is beating up on him. Plus, next to Dean, he appears close to mainstream.
That will change when, and if, Kerry gets closer to the nomination. By July, he'll be "another Massachusetts liberal" and won't come within 6 points of W in the fall.

I agree.  Kerry hasn't been scrutinized by the media the same way Dean was and is.  Kerry is arguably the most liberal candidate in the race--more so than Dean even.  As soon as he becomes the presumptive nominee, the Bush campaign will make sure the American people realize that Kerry is more liberal than Ted Kennedy.

[mossy]

I like those poll numbers.........