Tied in Pennsylvania

[The Vorlon]

here is a new CBS poll.

About what we would expect.

http://CBS%20News%20Poll%20Kerry%20Pulls%20Ahead%20April%2028,%202004 072026.htm

[dunn]

Nader got 2% in 2000, where is the catch?

[ShapeShifter]

This poll looks funny.

Nader 5%

and

Democrats in PA outnumber Republicans, yet this poll has a sample that leans Republican.

and

Registered Voters not likely voters

[The Vorlon]

This poll looks funny.

Nader 5%

and

Democrats in PA outnumber Republicans, yet this poll has a sample that leans Republican.

and

Registered Voters not likely voters

I am working over the numbers right now

I should have it reweighted by about noon EST or so.

All these numbers will kill you shifter.. stop now while you still can...

Admitting you need help is the first step to recovery...

PS - Poll has a "reverse gender gap" Bush leads by 4 among women but traions by 6 among men...?  Seems odd...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll read this is as good news. For one, Nader isn't getting 5%. For another, undecideds break 2:1 against the incumbent. So Kerry should pick up another 7-8, putting him close to where Gore was, and higher if he picks up some of that Nader vote.

[bullmoose88]

Registration numbers are not really relevant. They have more to do with history than current trends...

look at the US South...almost every state has a strong democratic voter registration edge...but how have those states voted?

In PA the democrats do outnumber republicans in a state thats gone democrat since 1992...but alot of those democrats are conservative (reagan democrats) who will vote bush, and alot of those republicans are liberal who could just as well vote kerry. All the counties around philly are strongly republican in terms of registration...but vote democrat--at least for president.

The swing between the two is important, but not the voter registration numbers

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I remember correctly, the Dems have a registeration advantage in Berks county... it's often close but they haven't won it for...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Doesn't Berks county contain Reading, which has a high minority population? Then most of the Republicans are probably registered as Republican-leaning independents, while the minorities are registered as Democrats.

I still say party registration doesn't mean much. And people are looking too much into post-9/11 registration shifts, since those are usually due to independents which have been leaning toward one party for a long time switching.

[The Vorlon]

If I remember correctly, the Dems have a registeration advantage in Berks county... it's often close but they haven't won it for...

Here is a link to county by county voter registration in Pennsylvania.

Data is as of April 2004

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/bcel/cwp/view.asp?a=1099&q=443600

[12th Doctor]

I don't trust PEW.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I remember correctly, the Dems have a registeration advantage in Berks county... it's often close but they haven't won it for...

Here is a link to county by county voter registration in Pennsylvania.

Data is as of April 2004

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/bcel/cwp/view.asp?a=1099&q=443600

Thanks
My memory still works! (Dems have a small advantage in Berks)

[The Vorlon]

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Then you're one up on me..

[© tweed]

I don't trust PEW.

...because they don't have your guy ahead.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Kerry should be able to carry Pennsylvania (he's done if he doesn't), considering the counties around Philly are supposed to be behind the Dems this time.