which state will most likely change to the opp. party

[Josh/Devilman88]

i would have to say that Ohio change to dem. before any of the others

[classical liberal]

I'd say NH and WV before OH.

[angus]

I'd say NH and WV before OH.

I agree.  But I'd put NM even more likely.  

[agcatter]

New Mexico

[bullmoose88]

New Hampshire

[Lunar]

In order from 2000 R to 2004 D:
New Hampshire
West Virginia
Ohio
Florida

In order from 2000 D to 2004 R:
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
??

[Rococo4]

I'd say NH and WV before OH.

I agree.  But I'd put NM even more likely.  

I think we will for sure pick up NM.    We will hold OH.  I have said it before, but Kerry is stil too socially liberal to win OH.

[© tweed]

New Mexico

[elcorazon]

1. NH
2. Ohio
3. Pennsylvania
4. West Virginia
5. New Mexico
6. Florida
7. Wisconsin

[Ben.]

In order of likelihood…

New Mexico (Dem to GOP)
West Virginia (GOP to Dem)
New Hampshire (GOP to Dem)
Pennsylvania (Dem to GOP)
Ohio (GOP to Dem)
Wisconsin (Dem to GOP)
Oregon (Dem to GOP)
Florida (GOP to Dem)
Nevada (GOP to Dem)
Iowa (Dem to GOP)
Minnesota (Dem to GOP)

[ShapeShifter]

1. Florida
2. Ohio

[pieman]

I have been follwing some of the comments on this board for a while and would like to finally join in!

I have looked at a lot of the opinions and numerous posts have indicated that Hew Hampshire is a likely switch from GOP to DEM. I was wondering what the reasoning might be.

This state appears to have a lot of independent voters with the GOP holding a registration advantage of 29-20. I know Bush won this state by less 2%, but why would he lose ground against a more liberal candidate such as Kerry? My assumption is that Kerry would have difficulty here like Dukakis/Mondale did in 84 and 88. Both ran 18% worse here than they did nationally.

   

[ShapeShifter]

I have been follwing some of the comments on this board for a while and would like to finally join in!

I have looked at a lot of the opinions and numerous posts have indicated that Hew Hampshire is a likely switch from GOP to DEM. I was wondering what the reasoning might be.

This state appears to have a lot of independent voters with the GOP holding a registration advantage of 29-20. I know Bush won this state by less 2%, but why would he lose ground against a more liberal candidate such as Kerry? My assumption is that Kerry would have difficulty here like Dukakis/Mondale did in 84 and 88. Both ran 18% worse here than they did nationally.

   

This is not 84 and 88. It is 04. If anything closer to being 00.

On that note, I too am skeptical as to why many have put NH in the Kerry column.

Welcome to the Forum

[klrbzzz]

New Hampshire, Ohio, New Mexico, Florida, and Wisconsin.

[pieman]

DEM to GOP
Iowa (registation increase from 27-32 to 32-27)

New Mexico (Registation increase of 4% and Hispanics running more strongly for Bush)

Minnesota (Registration increase from 26-31 to 31-28 and Has been trending more GOP with a new GOP Sen and Gov)

GOP to DEM
Ohio
West Va
Florida



 

[Gustaf]

Welcome to the forum Pieman.

From Dem to Rep:

1. Pennsylvania

2. New Mexico

3. Wisconsin

4. Oregon

5. Minnesota

6. Iowa

...and that's it, unless it turns into a big Bush win, that seems like it.

From Rep to Dem:

1. New Hampshire

2. West Virginia

3. Ohio

4. Florida

...and that's it. I really want to put Florida higher up, but I'm caving in to the consensus here...I don't really have a lot to back up my gut feeling that Kerry will do better in Florida than in the steel states.

A 'bi-partisan' list is much harder...

1. Pennsylvania

2. New Hampshire

3. New Mexico

would probably be my top 3.

[© tweed]

1. New Mexico
2. Wisconsin
3. West Virginia
4. Pennsylvania
5. Ohio
6. New Hampshire
7. Florida
8. Minnesota

[The Dowager Mod]

i would put wisconsin further down the list.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

pieman should know we don't have party registration here. that figure is taken from a poll, which came right after the 2002 elections, so I suspect a bunch of right-leaning independents then decided to identify as Republican. The recent Star Tribune poll showed around the area of 50DFL - 40Republican

[ilikeverin]

Sure we do!



Registered voting map from 2000... and note MN has a percentage...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

GOP to Dem

1. New Hampshire
2. West Virginia
3. Ohio

Dem to GOP

1. New Mexico
2. Pennsylvania
3. Wisconsin

This is why I still think Kerry will have the advantage come election time.  Democrats are going to vote 90%+ for Kerry, they can't stand Bush.  Republicans are going to vote 90%+ for Bush, they love Bush.  It still comes down to independents and undecideds, who usually break for the challenger.  Also, I don't think any of those upper midwest states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa) are in play for Bush as much as you think, and they are certainly not "tossups".  Bush still polls under 40% up there when put up against Kerry.  <40% for an incumbent is not very good at all.  I think the only places Bush can get Kerry are in new Mexico, which was insanely close last time.  And Pennsylvania, where GOP registration has shot up and Bush is there all the time backing Specter.  

I think, however, Kerry has more states he can pick up from Bush.  If Al's analysis is right, Virginia could be in play.  Florida is always close.  Ohio is dead even.  How would people in NC and the rest of the upper South feel about Edwards being on the ticket?  Remember, Gore got over 40% in all the southern states, and in AR and TN it was fairly close, and he was terrible as a canidate in the South.  

[ilikeverin]

Also, I don't think any of those upper midwest states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa) are in play for Bush as much as you think, and they are certainly not "tossups".

[The Dowager Mod]

wisconsin is angry about layoffs.

[KEmperor]

I don't see New Hampshire going for a Massachusetts liberal.

[Lunar]

I don't see New Hampshire going for a Massachusetts liberal.

Way to be objective dude, high five.

The state is borderline, there is no real way to dispute this.  What does this mean?  It means it has to be possible to "see" Kerry win it because states that are borderline will switch first.