50 State Poll (Note! - Loads slowly)

[The Vorlon]

Current Data from 50 States + DC

Most recent state poll, regardless of reliability, used.

If no recent 2004 poll, data from 2000 used.

No warranty expressed or implied!



Does anybody have any polls I have missed..??

[Umengus]

you're great! I hope that polls are great too!

[ShapeShifter]

I cannot see the image. I also have DSL.

[ShapeShifter]

I cannot see the image. I also have DSL.

Does it load OK now...?

Please try again!

I am getting nothing. Not even a piece of the image.

[elcorazon]

It loaded fine for me.  If all these polls wind up being correct, my quick math says Bush wins 273-265.  Is Kerry really ahead in Tennessee, however?  That's obviously a longshot.  How many here think there's ANY chance Kerry takes Tennessee AND Florida AND loses, but hey, stranger things have happened.

[ShapeShifter]

Can anyone send the image to my e-mail. I would really appreciate that. Thank You

useaf_shapeshifter@yahoo.com

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How can Kerry possibly be losing by that much in Montana?

I saw a poll that said if Howard Dean was the nominee then he'd be stomping Bush in Montana.

[elcorazon]

It loaded fine for me.  If all these polls wind up being correct, my quick math says Bush wins 273-265.  Is Kerry really ahead in Tennessee, however?  That's obviously a longshot.  How many here think there's ANY chance Kerry takes Tennessee AND Florida AND loses, but hey, stranger things have happened.

NO - That is a TYPO that I will fix...

So, Tennessee is in Bush' column now.  Florida, however is in Kerry's, correct?

[ShapeShifter]

Somehow, this image does not show up on Netscape but does on IE. ugh.

[Ben.]

How can Kerry possibly be losing by that much in Montana?

I saw a poll that said if Howard Dean was the nominee then he'd be stomping Bush in Montana.

There never was such a poll to my knowledge... Dean was at 35% against Bush in the last MT poll around Christmas time... while i seem to remember Kerry was at 29% that said at the time Kerry was considered all washed up and a definate dead weight...

But dont dulude your self Dean would never have won MT he'd have been hardpressed to win in CA and IL!!! imho

[The Vorlon]

It loaded fine for me.  If all these polls wind up being correct, my quick math says Bush wins 273-265.  Is Kerry really ahead in Tennessee, however?  That's obviously a longshot.  How many here think there's ANY chance Kerry takes Tennessee AND Florida AND loses, but hey, stranger things have happened.

NO - That is a TYPO that I will fix...

So, Tennessee is in Bush' column now.  Florida, however is in Kerry's, correct?

Florida has two polls from decent firms..

Two polls on Florida

A Mason Dixon with Bush +8

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=189

A Rassmussen with Kerry +1

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_April.htm

The Mason-Dixon had a bit bigger sample, and is, overall, a bit better firm.

Average the two you get Bush +3.5% which seems about right.

[elcorazon]

I understand, but you must have used Rasmussen because it was more recent.

[ShapeShifter]

It loaded fine for me.  If all these polls wind up being correct, my quick math says Bush wins 273-265.  Is Kerry really ahead in Tennessee, however?  That's obviously a longshot.  How many here think there's ANY chance Kerry takes Tennessee AND Florida AND loses, but hey, stranger things have happened.

NO - That is a TYPO that I will fix...

So, Tennessee is in Bush' column now.  Florida, however is in Kerry's, correct?

Florida has two polls from decent firms..

Two polls on Florida

A Mason Dixon with Bush +8

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=189

A Rassmussen with Kerry +1

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_April.htm

The Mason-Dixon had a bit bigger sample, and is, overall, a bit better firm.

Average the two you get Bush +3.5% which seems about right.

I disagree. +8 seems a bit too much. I think Florida is going to end up being close just like 2000 with either Bush or Kerry winning it. Like I said, there are many angry democrats who felt "cheated" in 2000 and I feel this can keep the race close. The national polls show this race is close, so, a +8 I think is way off.

[The Vorlon]

It loaded fine for me.  If all these polls wind up being correct, my quick math says Bush wins 273-265.  Is Kerry really ahead in Tennessee, however?  That's obviously a longshot.  How many here think there's ANY chance Kerry takes Tennessee AND Florida AND loses, but hey, stranger things have happened.

NO - That is a TYPO that I will fix...

So, Tennessee is in Bush' column now.  Florida, however is in Kerry's, correct?

Florida has two polls from decent firms..

Two polls on Florida

A Mason Dixon with Bush +8

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=189

A Rassmussen with Kerry +1

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_April.htm

The Mason-Dixon had a bit bigger sample, and is, overall, a bit better firm.

Average the two you get Bush +3.5% which seems about right.

I disagree. +8 seems a bit too much. I think Florida is going to end up being close just like 2000 with either Bush or Kerry winning it. Like I said, there are many angry democrats who felt "cheated" in 2000 and I feel this can keep the race close. The national polls show this race is close, so, a +8 I think is way off.

I agree that +8 is high, Mason-Dixon is an excellent firm, but nobody can do anything about that Margin of error thing

Rassmussen has Kerry +1
Mason-Dixon has Bush +8

Average the two = Bush +3.5

Seems "about" right to me..

I disagree about the "angry democrat" theory in Florida.

Three points:

1)In 2000 Democrat turnout was huge - I don't think there are any Democrats left to turnout over and above 2000. Gore's campaign manager Donna Brazille did an AMAZING job in turnout, she beat every turnout model I saw from that year.

2) Were not these same "angry democrats" going to toss Brother Jeb out on his ear? - Brother Jeb won in 2002 with a semi-landslide of +13%

3) Florida economy is best in the nation (or darn close anyway)

[ShapeShifter]

It loaded fine for me.  If all these polls wind up being correct, my quick math says Bush wins 273-265.  Is Kerry really ahead in Tennessee, however?  That's obviously a longshot.  How many here think there's ANY chance Kerry takes Tennessee AND Florida AND loses, but hey, stranger things have happened.

NO - That is a TYPO that I will fix...

So, Tennessee is in Bush' column now.  Florida, however is in Kerry's, correct?

Florida has two polls from decent firms..

Two polls on Florida

A Mason Dixon with Bush +8

http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=189

A Rassmussen with Kerry +1

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_April.htm

The Mason-Dixon had a bit bigger sample, and is, overall, a bit better firm.

Average the two you get Bush +3.5% which seems about right.

I disagree. +8 seems a bit too much. I think Florida is going to end up being close just like 2000 with either Bush or Kerry winning it. Like I said, there are many angry democrats who felt "cheated" in 2000 and I feel this can keep the race close. The national polls show this race is close, so, a +8 I think is way off.

I agree that +8 is high, Mason-Dixon is an excellent firm, but nobody can do anything about theat Margin of error thing

Rassmussen has Kerry +1
Mason-Dixon has Bush +8

Average the two = Bush +3.5

Seems "about" right to me..

I disagree about the "angry democrat" theory in Florida.

Three points:

1)In 2000 Democrat turnout was huge - I don't think there are any Democrats left to turnout over and above 2000. Gore's campaign manager Donna Brazille did an AMAZING job in turnout, she beat every turnout model I saw from that year.

2) Were not these same "angry democrats" going to toss Brother Jeb out on his ear? - Brother Jeb won in 2002 with a semi-landslide of +13%

3) Florida economy is best in the nation (or darn close anyway)

Well, I can understand your 1st and 3rd point but not the 2nd, but the 3rd is a little shaky. Jeb was not the Presidential candidate in 2000.

[ShapeShifter]

Vorlon, where do you get your information on registration number?

[The Vorlon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The DNC chairman Terry McCallifff (can't spell - sorry) specifically targeted Brother Jeb with some fairy extreme language saying 2002 would be payback for Jeb helping George "steal" florida, etc, etc, etc...

"We was robbed" was pretty much the Democrat ralling cry in Florida in 2002.  It did not seem to work.

Regarding Pont 3 - check the economic indicators (GDP, Unemployment, Job Creation, etc) Florida is in Excellent shape.

Mind you, Brother jeb is a much better Governor than brother George is a President.

Too bad Bother Jeb lost a sqeeker in 1994 for Florida Governor, if he had won it might have been President Jeb instead of President George.

Jeb is just a ton smarter the George.

[ShapeShifter]

Vorlon, where do you get your information on registration number?

I do not understand your question - please rephrase...?

As in state party (dem, rep, ind, etc) voter registration.

[ShapeShifter]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The DNC chairman Terry McCallifff (can't spell - sorry) specifically targeted Brother Jeb with some fairy extreme language saying 2002 would be payback for Jeb helping George "steal" florida, etc, etc, etc...

"We was robbed" was pretty much the Democrat ralling cry in Florida in 2002.  It did not seem to work.

Regarding Pont 3 - check the economic indicators (GDP, Unemployment, Job Creation, etc) Florida is in Excellent shape.

Mind you, Brother jeb is a much better Governor than brother George is a President.

Too bad Bother Jeb lost a sqeeker in 1994 for Florida Governor, if he had won it might have been President Jeb instead of President George.

Jeb is just a ton smarter the George.

Who was the candidate running against Jeb?

I don't disagree that Florida economy is one of the best. I'll take your word on that one.

[ShapeShifter]

Vorlon, where do you get your information on registration number?

I do not understand your question - please rephrase...?

As in state party (dem, rep, ind, etc) voter registration.

Ok...

Best source is usually the Secretarry of State for the respective state.  

Not all states have folks declare party ID (texas for example) so in states like that you need to go to secondary sources.

PEW has some very good registration data.

Thanks. Have any links to help me start out?

[The Vorlon]

Here is a GREAT link to a PEW study tracking voter registartion over time by Party ID.

Has very recent data on most of this year's "swing states" as well.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750

enjoy! - You'll go blind before you read all the numbers here

[ShapeShifter]

Here is a GREAT link to a PEW study tracking voter registartion over time by Party ID.

Has very recent data on most of this year's "swing states" as well.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750

enjoy! - You'll go blind before you real all the numbers here

I love looking at numbers.

Thanks. I appreciate the link.

[John]

Nice State Poll
I it is Great

[angus]

Minneapolis Star-Tribune gets an F-minus?!  Hey, I'll have you know my cousin Michelle worked for them for 25 years!    

Thanks for the compendium Vorlon.

[The Vorlon]

Minneapolis Star-Tribune gets an F-minus?!  Hey, I'll have you know my cousin Michelle worked for them for 25 years!    

Thanks for the compendium Vorlon.

Lowest mark I could give them....  If there was something lower to give, I would have