Big Ten Country

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Of all of the major college athletic conferences, the Big Ten probably contains the most battleground states.  States with universities in the Big Ten:

Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Illinois
Michigan
Indiana
Ohio
Pennsylvania

[© tweed]

everything but Illinois.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

everything but Illinois.

About your prediction, if this election is so lopsided that Bush wins Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, he'll also take New Jersey for sure.

[© tweed]

everything but Illinois.

About your prediction, if this election is so lopsided that Bush wins Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, he'll also take New Jersey for sure.

Gore won New Jersey by 16%, compared to 2.5% in MN, 5% in MI, etc.

[elcorazon]

Indiana & Illinois are clearly going to Bush and Kerry respectively.
Minnesota & Michigan are fairly solid for Kerry
Iowa & Wisconsin lean Kerry, but could swing to Bush.
Pennsylvania & Ohio are too close to call.

I voted 2, on the assumption Bush wins Indiana & either Ohio or Pennsylvania and Kerry takes the rest.  If this happens and Bush takes Florida, it's going to be tough for Kerry to win, without taking Missouri, Nevada or Arizona & holding onto NM and taking WV & NH.

[angus]

three

[classical liberal]

None.

The Indy metro area went en bloc for Bush, and the Chicago metro area split Bush-Gore.  They'll go en bloc for Kerry this time, enough to shift the state.  All the old conservative suburbs are trending Democrat.  Where I live went 65% for Regan's 1st term.  It went 65% to Gore last time.

Ohio will be lost after this year's appropriations process.  The GOP only ever had a chance in Big 10 Country because we are the party of fiscal conservatism.  However, since Bush was elected we suddenly stopped being the party of fiscal conservatism so we no longer have a chance.

[© tweed]

None.

The Indy metro area went en bloc for Bush, and the Chicago metro area split Bush-Gore.  They'll go en bloc for Kerry this time, enough to shift the state.  All the old conservative suburbs are trending Democrat.  Where I live went 65% for Regan's 1st term.  It went 65% to Gore last time.

Ohio will be lost after this year's appropriations process.  The GOP only ever had a chance in Big 10 Country because we are the party of fiscal conservatism.  However, since Bush was elected we suddenly stopped being the party of fiscal conservatism so we no longer have a chance.

How in the hell will Kerry pull off Indiana?

[elcorazon]

boy rwn, I hope you are right.  I will be shocked to see IN in the dem column.  I'm guessing that hasn't happened since 1964, if then.

[© tweed]

boy rwn, I hope you are right.  I will be shocked to see IN in the dem column.  I'm guessing that hasn't happened since 1964, if then.

Yep.  1964.  With heyheylbjhowmanykidsdidyoukilltoday.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

None.

The Indy metro area went en bloc for Bush, and the Chicago metro area split Bush-Gore.  They'll go en bloc for Kerry this time, enough to shift the state.  All the old conservative suburbs are trending Democrat.  Where I live went 65% for Regan's 1st term.  It went 65% to Gore last time.

Ohio will be lost after this year's appropriations process.  The GOP only ever had a chance in Big 10 Country because we are the party of fiscal conservatism.  However, since Bush was elected we suddenly stopped being the party of fiscal conservatism so we no longer have a chance.

How in the hell will Kerry pull off Indiana?

Big turnouts in Gary-Hammond, South Bend and Indianapolis+stronger showing in the Ohio Valley+weak Corn Belt turnout=upset

[elcorazon]

If Kerry wins Indiana, he will have close to 400 EV's, over 350 anyway.  EDIT (366 would be my best guess)


Not that there's anything wrong with that, I'm just sayin'.

[classical liberal]

Kerry would win NH, WV, OH, FL, VA, NC, MO, and then IN.  Its about the same as Bush winning IA, NM, WI, MN, MI, PA, DE, and MD.  A shift of 3% towards Kerry from the last poll I've seen puts IN in Kerry's column.

[Dave from Michigan]

Indiana is not going democrat

[Dave from Michigan]

Maybe the democrats have a chance then but it's still unlikely.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kerry will win them all except Indiana.  I also think he will lose Missouri, but I guess that is not a Big 10 state.

But Kerry could lose every one of these states and still win NJ.  That one is not going Republican in the next 20 years.

[Kghadial]

As a Big Ten student, I feel as if I ought to say something ...

If Kerry picks Bayh Indiana will be close.

However, Kerry will do substantially better than Gore here.  Gore pissed off what used to be the only democrat leaning group in Indiana, those in the south. Yet he still did decent for a Democrat here. The former conservative bastions are movings towards the center.

As for the rest of the Big Ten, I think Bush will have trouble winning any of these states other than Indiana.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a Big Ten student, I feel as if I ought to say something ...

If Kerry picks Bayh Indiana will be close.

However, Kerry will do substantially better than Gore here.  Gore pissed off what used to be the only democrat leaning group in Indiana, those in the south. Yet he still did decent for a Democrat here. The former conservative bastions are movings towards the center.

As for the rest of the Big Ten, I think Bush will have trouble winning any of these states other than Indiana.

There's also a load of tight House races in IN this year (including the "Bloody 8th" again...)

[ShapeShifter]

one or two

[Beet]

If the election were held today, Kerry would be in great shape, holding Bush off to maybe one or two of these states. But by November Kerry is not going to be in great shape. I would love to extrapolate today's situation to the actual election, but realistically, I have to agree with Miamiu here. All these states are so close that even a tiny shift towards Bush will tip them all.

[Kodratos]

Indiana
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Possible:

Minnesota: been trending GOP
Wisconsin: An almost-win for Edwards there, which means they are more conservative than Kerry, and I think the state is definately in play


 
 
 
 
 

[angus]

Indiana
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Possible:

Minnesota: been trending GOP
Wisconsin: An almost-win for Edwards there, which means they are more conservative than Kerry, and I think the state is definately in play

Greek flag, then australian, now norwegian.  you sure do get around.  

[Kodratos]

Indiana
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Possible:

Minnesota: been trending GOP
Wisconsin: An almost-win for Edwards there, which means they are more conservative than Kerry, and I think the state is definately in play

Greek flag, then australian, now norwegian.  you sure do get around.  

I fall in love with a new country every week

[lidaker]

I wouldn't fall in love with Fremskrittspartiet if I were you (translation: Progressive Party, though it represents the opposite of what's called progressive in the U.S.).

It belongs to the extremist right, together with Austria's FPÖ (Haider), Denmark's Dansk Folkeparti (Kjersgaard) and France's Front National (le Pen), parties that build many of their policies on racism.

[dunn]

Lidaker said it. This is a semi-nazi party