west virginia

[WalterMitty]

i saw some discussion on wv in another thread and i thought it might be interesting to have a wv topic started.

i think wv is a 'lean bush' state right now.  yes, wv has a long history of being a democratic stronghold, but that is slowly eroding.  the coalfields in southern wv remain heavily unionized and heavily democratic, but that makes up only a small portion of the state.

wv is about as culturally conservative as you can get (even in the heavily unionized areas).  this cultural conservatism has slowly been pushing wv in a gop direction.  arbortion, guns and now, gay marriage, will be  big negatives for kerry in wva.

in sum, i dont think it is likely that kerry carries wv.  just my two cents.

[zachman]

You may be right. I wouldn't check it off at all for Kerry yet. It has this strange tradition of never being close, and I can't imagine it has changed very much.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Gore lost WV because of the gun issue.  Kerry goes on TV hunting pheasants.  There are few backing a constiutional amendment to ban gays marrying.  Kerry is not uber-left on social issues.  Its going to come down to jobs, and Bush is going to lose.  

[StevenNick]

I'll go even farther.  I don't even think West Virginia is in play this election.  I think Bush is going to win it hands down.  He'll win on guns, gay marriage, and foreign policy.  And he'll win it by a fairly wide margin.

[CTguy]

I don't think guns and gay marriage will be a huge factor this election.

If they are then they will have the reverse effect in Florida and put it into the Kerry column.

[brassmonkey]

I don't think guns and gay marriage will be a huge factor this election.

If they are then they will have the reverse effect in Florida and put it into the Kerry column.

In most of the country they are a factor. Maybe not in your resort village, but most Americans vote for a conservative expecting they will uphold conservative values such as gun rights and keeping gay marriage away. And George Bush's brother is a pro-guns and anti-gays guy, and he got elected by a huge margin in Florida

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't think guns and gay marriage will be a huge factor this election.

If they are then they will have the reverse effect in Florida and put it into the Kerry column.

The Bush people better protect Florida with everything they have this time around.  Bush loses Florida and he loses the election, no doubt.

Florida for Bush is like Pennsylvania for Kerry.  They lose is they lose them.  Fortunately, I feel PA is alot more secure for Kerry than Florida for Bush.  Dems are going to have a massive turnout there.  The Reps have to match it to win.  

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Alan Greenspan's latest proposal will make Kerry getting a larger margin of victory in Florida than Republican vote fraud a lot easier.

[CTguy]

I never realized Connecticut was a "resort village."  Maybe it's more affluent than Utah but that's a real stretch.  

And I just saw a poll from Florida that showed most residents were against a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.  I also believe there is a big gay community in South Florida.  And I doubt most Florida voters support the NRA since it is a pretty urban state.

[WalterMitty]

yeah.  i remember when the democrats were going to have 'huge turnout' to throw jeb bush out of office in 02.

i think bill mcbride is selling car insurance or something now.

[ncjake]

I never realized Connecticut was a "resort village."  Maybe it's more affluent than Utah but that's a real stretch.  

And I just saw a poll from Florida that showed most residents were against a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.  I also believe there is a big gay community in South Florida.  And I doubt most Florida voters support the NRA since it is a pretty urban state.

You have probably never been to Florida. Outside of Tampa and the Northern Miami area, its not that liberal. Northern Florida is in fact pretty conservative. And its a myth that there are a lot of gays in South Florida. No more than any other metropolitan center.

[CTguy]

I go to Florida every summer as most of my family lives there.  And yeah maybe northern florida is conservative and non-urban but southern florida is much more populated.  And central florida which is supposedly the swing area of the state is urban by most states standards.

[Ben.]

I’d agree that West Virginia leans towards Bush this time around…however social issues will only get you so far…unemployment is very high there, couple that with a large unionised population that (along with the rest of the state) has a history of supporting the Dems and I’d say that either way WV will be close the fact is the state is really hurting economically, while at the same time it is very socially conservative… and those two factors make me wary of saying it leans to either party in particular this time around…        

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that WV leans towards Kerry this year...
But it'll all come down to whether or not the WV Democrat machine can get enough people in the South of the state to vote.
If they can, Kerry wins easily. If not it'll be very close.

[© tweed]

I think Kerry will win WV handily, even if he gets relatively destroyed nationally.

[12th Doctor]

I think Kerry will win WV handily, even if he gets relatively destroyed nationally.

I can see where you guys are coming from, I really can, but I just don't se it happening.  I think that he is likely to win Ohio before he wins West Virginia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

with Ohio, he won't need WV. I think Kerry will win WV, since the stars were in perfect alignment for Bush to carry it in 2000, and it's been hit hard by job losses, tarriff lifting, and No Child Left Behind.

[12th Doctor]

with Ohio, he won't need WV. I think Kerry will win WV, since the stars were in perfect alignment for Bush to carry it in 2000, and it's been hit hard by job losses, tarriff lifting, and No Child Left Behind.

All very true, but history shows that once old voting patterns are broken, they are usually broken for good.  I don't put a Kerry win in WV out of the realm of possibility and it is certainly more likey to go to Kerry than a lot of other states.  I think that it is safe for Bush in anything short of a big win nationally for Kerry.