Alright, I think the confusion is over, KIRK IS IN!!

[DownWithTheLeft]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/illinois-gop-chairman-yields-to-kirk-senate-run-2009-07-13.html

McKenna WILL NOT seek the nomination in order to clear the field for Kirk

[Lunar]

still time for the IL GOP to sabotage itself

[Alexander Hamilton]

still time for the IL GOP to sabotage itself

They should run Alan Keyes again.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

still time for the IL GOP to sabotage itself

They should run Alan Keyes again.

Shhhhh!!!!!!! don't give them any ideas.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Seeing as how this is the ILGOP we are talking about, there's still a 100% chance that they will figure out how to lose this race, & quite badly.

[Badger]

     Seeing as how this is the ILGOP we are talking about, there's still a 100% chance that they will figure out how to lose this race, & quite badly.

Unless Lexi's rumored finances issue is game-changingly big, Kirk will lose, but not 'quite badly'. At worst for the GOP, this will likely force the DSCC to spend money here that could otherwise go to KY, OH, etc.

[Nym90]

He'll do approximately as well as the other guy named Kirk who ran for an open Senate seat in the President's home state in his first midterm election.

[Badger]

He'll do approximately as well as the other guy named Kirk who ran for an open Senate seat in the President's home state in his first midterm election.

^^^^^^^ this. Don't know how I missed that obvious and accurate analogy.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

He'll do approximately as well as the other guy named Kirk who ran for an open Senate seat in the President's home state in his first midterm election.

^^^^^^^ this. Don't know how I missed that obvious and accurate analogy.

If he gets 45% I will be happy.

As was previously stated, challenging seats isn't just about winning, its about forcing Dems to spend money in Highly Dem areas. Like CT and ILL. Take Dodd for example. The guy is a 5 term incumbent on a powerful committee. The Dems will be pushing as many millions into CT as they can cause the embarrassment of losing such a powerfull Dem and the subsequent Spin would be damaging beyond belief. Same thing goes as to why we should go after Reid with anybody we can find. You have 20 Millions dollars sitting somewhere in the oppositions hand you don't want it spread around you want it kept there. While they are spending millions to help save ILL, CT, NV and PA we will have better chance in OH, NH(If Ayotte runs), NC, and CO as well as picking off one or two of the first four I mentioned. Thats what the Dems did in 2006 and 2008. Its what we used to know how to do as well prior to that.

[Lunar]

I don't know if that's quite the accurate statement either.  Reid's not about to raise half the money or give half of his money to the national party if a nobody challenges him.

But the more places you play offense with good candidates, the more places you will be able to get lucky

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't know if that's quite the accurate statement either.  Reid's not about to raise half the money or give half of his money to the national party if a nobody challenges him.

But the more places you play offense with good candidates, the more places you will be able to get lucky

True but I Still don't like the idea of just letting the opportunity pass and I wouldn't put it passed Reid to find someway to put that 20 Million to work for Dems accross the country, if he is unnopposed.

[Nym90]

The money expenditure goes both ways though; yes it costs the Dems money to defend what would otherwise be a safe seat, but the GOP could waste money (in an election in which the Dems will proabably be better funded to begin with) on an unwinnable seat just as well.

Though yes, it does increase the odds of catching lightning in a bottle, but Kirk will have to figure out how to win big both downstate and in the suburbs, something that's been pretty tough for recent GOP candidates in Illinois.

[Franzl]

I think Kirk has a better chance than most people believe....but I'm not terribly optimistic.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think Kirk has a better chance than most people believe....but I'm not terribly optimistic.

It's equivalent to Charlie Melancon running in Louisiana. About the only candidate who has a shot, but it's still an uphill fight.

[Lunar]

I'm still puzzled about this race.  If it's reasonably close, it seems like it'd be easy for Obama to cut some powerful ads for Alexi to seal the deal.

[Badger]

I think Kirk has a better chance than most people believe....but I'm not terribly optimistic.

It's equivalent to Charlie Melancon running in Louisiana. About the only candidate who has a shot, but it's still an uphill fight.

Only if Lexi gets caught wearing diapers with a hooker, then yes.

[Lunar]

his family's bank has some Rezko ties that Kirk will use to throw mud, no doubt

Easier to attack something like that publicly than Vitter's prostitute thing

[muon2]

his family's bank has some Rezko ties that Kirk will use to throw mud, no doubt

Easier to attack something like that publicly than Vitter's prostitute thing

A competitive primary for Alexi has not been ruled out and that can cut into his general election chances as well. Kirk looks not to have a significant challenge on the GOP side.

[Lunar]

My money is that Kennedy backs out, but I've been burned before, and there's still a 30% chance he'll run even in my mind.  His business connections have been laying off people if I remember right from a  while back, and that don't play that well.  On the other hand, his last name plays well.

Alexi will still probably be challenged by that old Blago spokesman (lol), that woman who is the head of some Chicago African-American organization that I forget...Cheryl Jackson or something?  Anyway, she could bleed some of the raw name-based votes for Kennedy in a primary....

Also, everyone knows Obama would prefer his basketball bff.  Muon,  maybe you can answer my question, but wouldn't a few ads cut by Obama, targeted at the suburbs, go a long way in sinking Kirk? 

[muon2]

My money is that Kennedy backs out, but I've been burned before, and there's still a 30% chance he'll run even in my mind.  His business connections have been laying off people if I remember right from a  while back, and that don't play that well.  On the other hand, his last name plays well.

Alexi will still probably be challenged by that old Blago spokesman (lol), that woman who is the head of some Chicago African-American organization that I forget...Cheryl Jackson or something?  Anyway, she could bleed some of the raw name-based votes for Kennedy in a primary....

Also, everyone knows Obama would prefer his basketball bff.  Muon,  maybe you can answer my question, but wouldn't a few ads cut by Obama, targeted at the suburbs, go a long way in sinking Kirk? 

I think the strength of those ads will depend on Obama's performance nationally at the time. We don't know how much of the economy will stick. Consider the GM bankruptcy/takeover. We have a local dealer of over 40 years that has been cut from GM. Long time residents are quite unhappy to hear about it, and the feds are being blamed at least in part. The actual termination for dealerships becomes effective Oct '10, and will again draw publicity which doesn't time well with the election.

[Lunar]

Fair enough.  On the other hand, if Obama's popularity is less than a majority in IL, or the president's clout is ignored there, losing this seat will be the least of the Democrat's worries.

http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2009/07/21/kirks-roll-out-couldnt-have-been-better/

I like Kirk's ideology a lot.   My biggest complaint about him is that he's too politically perfect, he doesn't have any rough edges, everything is masterfully planned, haha.  Hell, his recently divorced ex-wife is out there standing on the podium saying that Kirk will be a fantastic senator.

[Lunar]

wtf

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0_L42Je-3s&eurl

[Meeker]

wtf

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0_L42Je-3s&eurl

The folks at the DSCC clearly have waaaay too much time on their hands.

[Landslide Lyndon]

wtf

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0_L42Je-3s&eurl

Wouldn't it be, you know, more relevant if they mentioned that he voted for the Iraq War and favored the privatization of Social Security?

[Ronnie]

wtf

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0_L42Je-3s&eurl

LOL!