Louisiana and National poll by PPP

[ej2mm15]

National will be released on Monday, Louisiana(with Jindal) on Tues or Wens.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/07/coming-next-week_17.html

[Farage]

according to the poll, jindal will be popular unlike obama ...

[Landslide Lyndon]

according to the poll, jindal will be popular unlike obama ...

Obama unpopular in Louisiana???
Knock me down with a feather.

Next thing you know there will be a poll that shows him unpopular in Wyoming or Oklahoma.

[Tender Branson]

Probably 40%ish approval for Obama and mid-50s for Jindal.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Jindal leading in Louisiana?! You don't say. Someone alert the New York Times!!

Louisiana would probably be the only state Jindal would carry in the general election against Obama after his primetime debut flop after Obama's State of the Union Address. *Another one bites the dust*

[Democratic Hawk]

If the president's approvals are >40%, it's respectable given the 4.13% swing towards McCain in 2008. Bobby the Page - no doubt will be riding high

[ej2mm15]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_720.pdf

New poll is out (National)

[Person Man]

Hmmm... I am guessing that this is what Obama will look like around election day. Bush's August-ish 2001 numbers were pretty similiar to his November 2004...that means nothing, but this is what I expect.

[Vepres]

Hmmm... I am guessing that this is what Obama will look like around election day. Bush's August-ish 2001 numbers were pretty similiar to his November 2004...that means nothing, but this is what I expect.

Carter and Bush 41 both appeared to be invincible at this point.

[Verily]

Hmmm... I am guessing that this is what Obama will look like around election day. Bush's August-ish 2001 numbers were pretty similiar to his November 2004...that means nothing, but this is what I expect.

Carter and Bush 41 both appeared to be invincible at this point.

Your sarcasm detector appears to be faulty.

[bgwah]

I find it hard to believe that Sarah Palin is that popular...

[Lunar]

This is going to make Louisiana a tougher state to win for Obama

(important number for Melancon to watch though)

[DariusNJ]

I predict a 42% approval for Obama.

[Ronnie]

So Obama's approval rating is only 50% nationwide according to PPP? Hm.

By the way, does anyone here know whether PPP does LVs or RVs?

[Tender Branson]

I guess Obama's approval rating in LA will be about 40-54 in today's release by PPP.

47% DEM (70-25 Approve)
39% REP (8-87 Disapprove)
14% IND (28-60 Disapprove)

[DariusNJ]

PPP Louisiana:

Obama: 44% approve, 50% disapprove
74% of Dems approve, 30% of indeps approve, 12% of Reps approve
91% of AA's approve, 25% of whites approve

Landrieu: 43% approve, 43% disapprove

Jindal: 55% approve

Palin: 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable

Jindal vs Obama: Jindal 54, Obama 40

Palin vs Obama: Palin 49, Obama 42

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Louisiana_722.pdf

[Person Man]

Palin under 50 in Louisiana? Well...it doesn't look too good for Stormy Daniels, then.

[pbrower2a]

Palin under 50 in Louisiana? Well...it doesn't look too good for Stormy Daniels, then.

She would clearly win the white anti-intellectual vote in Louisiana and elsewhere. Louisiana isn't exactly an intellectual haven.

A reminder: Jimmy Swaggart is from Louisiana.   Unlike D. James Kennedy (Florida) and Jerry Falwell (Virginia) he is very much alive. About the only good thing that I can say about Jimmy Swagger is that he rejects the "wealth cult" ministry.

[Holmes]

25% of whites? That's... an improvement, Mr. Obama!

[Person Man]

25% of whites? That's... an improvement, Mr. Obama!

What is it about living south of 32 or 34 N and having blue eyes and having an average IQ of 85?

[Democratic Hawk]

With PPP you can make pretty straight comparisons with the 2008 exit polls and, to be honest, Obama could be standing a little stronger against Palin than it might seem

Applying the PPP % shares to the 2008 exit poll demographiics, I find:

1. By ideology*, its Obama 46.56%; Palin 45.08%

2. By gender, its Obama 42.64%; Palin 47.88%

3. By party, its Obama 41.39%; Palin 50.65%

4. By race, its Obama 42.91%; Palin 46.80%

5. By age, its Obama 43.97%; Palin 41.49%

6. By region*, it's Obama 44.53%; Palin 51.08%

* In 2008, Lousiana was one of only five states where moderate voters broke against Obama (45-54). The others being Wyoming (40-57); Oklahoma (43-57); Alaska (43-55) and Alabama (49-50) but here moderates break for Obama (62-31) against Palin

* This is more problematic, however, according to the 2008 exits; the New Orleans area comprised 16% of the electorate (Obama 53%; McCain 45%); Cajun Country comprised 34% (Obama 38%; McCain 60%) and the North comprised 51% (Obama 35%; McCain 63%)

I've considered area codes 225 (Baton Rouge) and 318 (North) to be the North; code 504 (New Orleans) to be, obviously, the New Orleans Area; and code 337 (Southwest) and code 985 (Southeast) to be Cajun Country

Seemingly, using PPP demographic %, Obama has lost ground in both New Orleans, where he leads Palin (50-42) and in Cajun County, where Palin leads (37-56). The North, however, is a much closer (45-48), where his approval rating is 47% approve; 48% disapprove

[Democratic Hawk]

4. By race, its Obama 42.91%; Palin 46.80%

Additionally, following the 2008 presidential election, allowing for % racial group demographic base remaining constant along with the same level of support for Obama among African-Americans and Hispanics/Others, I estimated that in the eight states of the 'Confederacy', which McCain carried, the % of the white white he'd need to carry them are: Alabama, 27% (10%, in 2008); Arkansas, 44% (30%); Georgia 28% (23%); Louisiana 30% (14%); Mississippi 23% (11%); South Carolina 34% (26%); Tennessee 44% (34%); and Texas 36% (26%)