When will the GOP regain th White House.

[BM]

Never.  Now that "Romney/Bachmann '12" has left the party, they might as well pack it up.

[pbrower2a]

Again, I don't see any sign of Obama losing in 2012. I see steady and high approval ratings, and although those seem likely to shrink, Obama can lose much support and still win. Incumbency is a huge asset in winning an election, and a President with even mediocre results as President (Coolidge, George W. Bush) can win re-election.

Obama is the consummate politician, and he can convince people to do things that they are lukewarm about. He had a superb campaign machine in 2008 and he can resuscitate that if he is in political trouble in 2012. So far I see the same techniques of Ronald Reagan as President if not the same agenda, and I would be surprised even with a squeaker win by Obama -- let alone a loss. "Great Communicator", "Teflon President"? that may be an understatement. Obama may show us what sort of President JFK might have been had he been able to survive a full term as President.

Obama will have to do something incredibly corrupt or be caught in a succession of acts of incompetence to lose in 2012.

I can think of ways in which the Republicans win the Presidency in 2012 -- and those involve Obama meeting the Grim Reaper. Joe Biden becomes President and shows that he isn't up to the job (he really is unproven and will remain so!) He gets entangled in a knock-down, drag-out primary challenge from Brian Schweitzer or Hillary Clinton. Such could make a Republican run at the Presidency less a Landon/Goldwater/McGovern/Mondale effort than a genuine contest.

My suggestion to any Republican who has voodoo dolls of Barack Obama, or their equivalents for Air Force One or Marine One -- do the decent thing: retire them now, needles removed, please. Most Americans want Obama to succeed.

2016: Unless Obama chooses not to run in 2012 because he thinks that he has solved every problem and will come back when times are more critical, the 22nd Amendment will almost certainly be in force. We have no idea what the political scene of 2016 will be. If Obama remains well-regarded, he may have a hand-picked successor. It is also possible that after a catastrophic defeat in 2012 the Republican Party will have been taken over by comparative moderates -- who could be ex-Democrats. Nixon, flawed as he was, followed Goldwater as the GOP nominee in 1968 and won. Carter, flawed as he was, won four years after the McGovern debacle. It could be that we see a moderate Republican nominee not as eccentric as Carter and without the demons that Nixon had. That nominee could win.

Who knows? Obama could be setting up Jon Huntsman for that role. A dominant-party system might offend his sense of history.

2020: The last two VPs to follow a two-term President completing a term were George H.W. Bush and Martin Van Buren. Van Buren was a lousy President; GHWB wasn't bad, achieving some foreign-policy feats for which the world can be thankful for years, but he ran out of agenda before his first and only term expired and became unelectable. I expect something between those two results if Joe Biden succeeds  Barack Obama.  Someone younger could get the same effect.

There is one huge condition: that the GOP does not implode by then. It had better find a new coalition for electoral purposes because the GWB coalition is shrinking.  I can imagine many scenarios in which the GOP becomes a minor party or even dies. In such a case, much of what was the Republican Party will either become Democrats or independents, and America goes into a new Era of Good Feeling that ends when the Democratic Party splits. I can imagine a Social Democrat-Christian Democrat split, both Parties claiming to be successors of Jefferson, FDR, Kennedy, and perhaps Lincoln.

2024: Begin your Star Trek prequel. That could make far more sense than any prediction of American politics.

 

  

[big bad fab]

You're all wrong, it'll be far sooner than that:

in 2011, after a coup by Gen. David Petraeus,

after the city of Juneau (with AK governor inside it...) has been flattened by a Taepodong-4 nuclear missile and Obama has not reacted otherwise than appointing a new special envoy and forecasting a meeting with APEC leaders.

Oups, sorry, I thought it was a "what if" thread...

[ChrisJG777]

I'd say that from what I can tell is happening right now, 2016 is likely to be the earliest time at which the Republicans reclaim the White House.  Of course I can't say for sure and it depends partially on how long the Republicans take to give themselves a new image, and on what Obama does between now and 2012 and the consequences of such actions, et cetera.

[pbrower2a]

You're all wrong, it'll be far sooner than that:

in 2011, after a coup by Gen. David Petraeus,

after the city of Juneau (with AK governor inside it...) has been flattened by a Taepodong-4 nuclear missile and Obama has not reacted otherwise than appointing a new special envoy and forecasting a meeting with APEC leaders.

More likely, the People's Liberation Army will liberate North Korea and establish a pro-Beijing government in Pyongyang...  with the tacit approval of the President of the United States and the collaboration of Russia, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. North Korea is so nasty that the Chinese Communists would be seen as liberators, especially as the North Koreans get new radios.

[Mechaman]

I notice alot of people here saying that it will be dependant on what happens during the Obama presidency, I see more like depending on what direction the GOP takes in the years following the 2008 election. I have a few scenarios:

a)The GOP throws out all moderates and becomes the super duper extreme right wing party. I know this sounds like it's happening right now but what I'm talking about is a party so far right that they start throwing moderate house and senate members under the bus if they so much as change the wording on their stances on gay marriage and abortion. If this happens, the GOP will become a laughing stock and WILL be dead by AT THE VERY MOST 2032. After which the Democrat party would splinter into two or more major parties: a Social Democrat party and a Liberty Democrat party. The Social Democrat would be similar to many European left wing parties while the Liberty Democrat would be pretty libertarian on social issues and moderate on economic issues.

b)Kind of similar to scenario a except that instead of the moderate and libertarian factions getting voted out of power, they leave. Here's how I see it happening:
Another former neocon or diehard social conservative condemns libertarian Republicans and tells them to leave the party, and the libertarians do leave and join en masse the Libertarian Party and it becomes much bigger a threat to the two party system than it was before. After this happens the moderate Republicans (this is kind of happening already with Arlen Specter) decide to leave as a protest against the abuses of the far right wing and join either the Democrats or the now much bigger Libertarian Party. This would leave the GOP much smaller than it was before the schism with only the far right wing and the populist wing (Huckabee like politicians) in the party. Eventually the populist wing will get tired of the extreme right wing and would probably defect to a protectionist like third party like the Constitution party. This would mean the Democrats would have supermajorities in Congress, the Libertarian Party would replace the Republican Party as a "major party", while the Constitution and Republican parties would become very small regional parties.
I doubt this scenario would happen, just think it'd be insane if it did......

c)The GOP decides to heal itself of the pain caused by the Bush years and reinvent themselves as a moderate party. With the GOP going so far right recently this doesn't seem likely but it might still happen if the Republican voters show their discontent by voting in moderate or libertarian leaning Republicans into office within the next few years. Depending on what happens during the Obama administration this could mean a Republican president anytime between 2012 (if things go VERY BAD) to 2024 (if things go good and the American people still don't like the idea of having one party in power for too long).

But if I had to guess I'd have to say that sadly.....option a seems the most likely because it has happened the most in our nation's history. Barring a MAJOR mistake of atomic proportions (literally) I'd say the Republican Party has no chance of regaining the White House if they continue on the path they have been for the past few months.

[Ogre Mage]

If I were forced to pick a date for when the Republicans will regain the White House, I would go with 2020.  My prediction is that the Obama Presidency and its aftermath will play out in a fashion similar to Reagan/Bush I.

[pogo stick]

2012 or 2016.  Latest 2920.

But I bet my money on 2012.

[pogo stick]

2012 or 2016.  Latest 2920.

But I bet my money on 2012.

I bet my money on 2920 .

And I bet my money that Vermont will be onvaded by Satan and then tooken to hell in ...um.. 3 days?

[pbrower2a]

If and when it cleans up its act; otherwise it goes like the Federalists into oblivion.

At the earliest, 2016.

[Mechaman]

Unlike my previous post I'm going to assume that the GOP gets their crap together and stops alienating the moderates.

It depends on issues like the economy, supreme court rulings, foreign policy, health care, etc.
With GM filing for bankruptcy, Obama's popularity took kind of a nasty hit, although it most likely will recover in a few weeks.
If Universal Health Care blows up in his face (unlike Clinton, UHC is a huge deal with Obama, almost as big as the economy) he'll most likely take another nasty hit.
Obama becomes excessively tough on the War on Drugs.
If the economy is the same as it is today with very little change negative or positive and UHC fails, it's a semi-tossup (favoring Obama) for 2012 and the GOP is likely to get back into office 2016.
If Obama gets us into another unpopular war, that'll take a very nasty hit considering how a year ago he was considered one of the "peace candidates".
Also on foreign policy, if we're not out of Iraq by the beginning of 2011, also a very nasty hit.
With all of these events it's a semi-tossup (favoring Republican) possible for the Republicans to take back the White House by 2012.
The Fairness Doctrine gets passed, very nasty hit if the Republicans can twist it as "prohibition of free speech".
If Obama appoints super activist judges and does something crazy like overturn the DC vs. Heller ruling and gets Congress (I highly doubt this will happen since alot of Democrat officeholders nowdays are getting quite pro-gun) to pass a handgun ban, he's just kissed re-election goodbye. Republicans would get hold of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives by 2012.
That last one was just a "if things go bats#&t insane" scenario.

If I had to make a definite prediction I'd have to say Obama would pull off a Woodrow Wilson like victory (due to economy staying as is, failed UHC semi-agressive foreign policy) over the Republican (wins by like 20 or so electoral votes, way closer than last election, maybe 48.75%-47.68% popular vote assuming a stronger third party presence) by emphasizing one or more key issues he's done well at while also bringing up the Bush legacy (which won't be as significant but still quite damaging). A bit longer to call the election than 2008.
By 2016 the GOP would appear a bit more moderate/libertarian than in 2008 and might run someone charismatic who's somewhere between the moderate mold and Ron Paul mold of Republican. And the economy would bomb just a few weeks after the 2012 elections. The Democrats, not learning their lesson from last time, would appoint pretty much an "Obama phase II" candidate minus the good charisma and speaking skills. With a lackluster economy (that's gotten a little better in the past two months), foreign policy blunders, and gas prices back at the sky high prices (if not higher) than in mid-2008, the Republicans regain the White House in 2016.

This is, of course, if the Republican party still isn't as batty as it is right now. They would have to make drastic changes

[Mechaman]

Unlike my previous post I'm going to assume that the GOP gets their crap together and stops alienating the moderates.

It depends on issues like the economy, supreme court rulings, foreign policy, health care, etc.
With GM filing for bankruptcy, Obama's popularity took kind of a nasty hit, although it most likely will recover in a few weeks.
If Universal Health Care blows up in his face (unlike Clinton, UHC is a huge deal with Obama, almost as big as the economy) he'll most likely take another nasty hit.
Obama becomes excessively tough on the War on Drugs.
If the economy is the same as it is today with very little change negative or positive and UHC fails, it's a semi-tossup (favoring Obama) for 2012 and the GOP is likely to get back into office 2016.
If Obama gets us into another unpopular war, that'll take a very nasty hit considering how a year ago he was considered one of the "peace candidates".
Also on foreign policy, if we're not out of Iraq by the beginning of 2011, also a very nasty hit.
With all of these events it's a tossup (favoring Republican) possible for the Republicans to take back the White House by 2012 and likely to be back in White House by 2016
The Fairness Doctrine gets passed, very nasty hit if the Republicans can twist it as "prohibition of free speech".
If Obama appoints super activist judges and does something crazy like overturn the DC vs. Heller ruling and gets Congress (I highly doubt this will happen since alot of Democrat officeholders nowdays are getting quite pro-gun) to pass a handgun ban, he's just kissed re-election goodbye. Republicans would get hold of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives by 2012.
That last one was just a "if things go bats#&t insane" scenario.

If I had to make a definite prediction I'd have to say Obama would pull off a Woodrow Wilson like victory (due to economy staying as is, failed UHC semi-agressive foreign policy) over the Republican (wins by like 20 or so electoral votes, way closer than last election, maybe 48.75%-47.68% popular vote assuming a stronger third party presence) by emphasizing one or more key issues he's done well at while also bringing up the Bush legacy (which won't be as significant but still quite damaging). A bit longer to call the election than 2008.
By 2016 the GOP would appear a bit more moderate/libertarian than in 2008 and might run someone charismatic who's somewhere between the moderate mold and Ron Paul mold of Republican. And the economy would bomb just a few weeks after the 2012 elections. The Democrats, not learning their lesson from last time, would appoint pretty much an "Obama phase II" candidate minus the good charisma and speaking skills. With a lackluster economy (that's gotten a little better in the past two months), foreign policy blunders, and gas prices back at the sky high prices (if not higher) than in mid-2008, the Republicans regain the White House in 2016.

This is, of course, if the Republican party still isn't as batty as it is right now. They would have to make drastic changes

And not to be a heartless bastard, but aren't we overdue for a dead president?

[Vepres]

Earliest, 2012. Latest, some 5 billion years from now just before the Earth is engulfed by the sun. Any other answer is wrong.

[Mechaman]

Earliest, 2012. Latest, some 5 billion years from now just before the Earth is engulfed by the sun. Any other answer is wrong.

Yours is superior.

[??????????]

Crist is nearly a Democrat.

[Rob]

Crist is nearly a Democrat.

er, didn't you vote for him?

[??????????]

Crist is nearly a Democrat.

er, didn't you vote for him?

Yes, and what's that have to do with the price of tea in China?

[Rob]

So Mr. Conservative will vote for "near-Democrats" as long as they've got that (R) behind their name. Just making sure.

[Smash255]

Crist is nearly a Democrat.

Based off what exactly?  He isn't a staunch conservative, but he is quite a bit to the right of Collins, Snowe and Rell.

[??????????]

Crist is nearly a Democrat.

Based off what exactly?  He isn't a staunch conservative, but he is quite a bit to the right of Collins, Snowe and Rell.

He endorsed and supported the bailout, hell he even HUGGED Obama on stage.

So Mr. Conservative will vote for "near-Democrats" as long as they've got that (R) behind their name. Just making sure.

Um, yeah, whatever dude. He ran way more conservative then he has governed as.

[Nym90]

History suggests 2016 is the most likely. If Obama is very unsuccessful, 2012 of course. If he is very successful, 2020 is most probable.