Crist v. Rubio, win-win for the GOP?

[Jacobtm]

I'd love it if some Floridians could come in with some more info on Rubio, as he seems to be a very important figure for the future of the GOP.

Basically, not having read a ton about this race, it seems like whether Crist or Rubio wins the Republican nomination, that the Republicans come out on top.

Crist obviously has the approval ratings and fund-raising state-wide to win the election, so it would be an open senate seat that the Republicans hold on to. Good for them.

Rubio is great because he could help them reverse Hispanics' drift towards the Democrats. Florida was the best state for Republicans with Hispanics, and 58% of them went for Obama. I don't know if Rubio could win state-wide, but if he's part of any sort of Hispanic Republican revival, that would do wonders for the GOP, and Florida seems like their likeliest spot to get a Hispanic elected.

The question is, could Rubio really win in Florida?

[Lunar]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=90947.msg1994411#msg1994411
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=90947.msg1995616#msg1995616
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=90947.msg2021291#msg2021291


Some of my posts on the subject.

[Verily]

Did Mel Martinez "revive Republican fortunes among Hispanics"? (Hint: No.)

Rubio is strictly a downside. If Crist loses the primary, it's bad news for Republicans. Doesn't mean the seat is lost... although it probably does considering who Rubio would have to alienate to win the primary. Maybe not against Meek, though.

[Lunar]

Did Mel Martinez "revive Republican fortunes among Hispanics"? (Hint: No.)

he was also a mega loser



and not a young, articulate, passionate ideologue

[Jacobtm]

Did Mel Martinez "revive Republican fortunes among Hispanics"? (Hint: No.)

Rubio is strictly a downside. If Crist loses the primary, it's bad news for Republicans. Doesn't mean the seat is lost... although it probably does considering who Rubio would have to alienate to win the primary. Maybe not against Meek, though.

Quizá se lo hizó...

Obama's preformance amongst Hispanics was lower in Florida than in any other state. Maybe Mel Martinez didn't win over 100% of Hispanics to Republicans, but who can say what effect having a Senator named Martinez had on Hispanics in Florida being friendlier to Republicans than in any other state?

While Republicans long have relied on anti-Castro votes from Cuban immigrants, the younger Cubans who're more Americanized, not to mention all the people from various other Hispanic countries, care less and less about hardlining Cuba, so the Republicans there need to do something to keep Hispanics on their side.

Plus, just as a citizen, I'd like to see both Democrats and Republicans capable of reaching out to all Americans, rather than Democrats having a monopoly on non-whites (aka 40% of America) as Republicans are currently allowing.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Plus, just as a citizen, I'd like to see both Democrats and Republicans capable of reaching out to all Americans, rather than Democrats having a monopoly on non-whites (aka 40% of America) as Republicans are currently allowing.

Isn't it up to the Republicans to change that?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Rubio wouldn't necessarily be a loss for the GOP, since a right-wing Cuban is going to be more acceptable to the voters than a black man. But it would push the chances of a GOP hold from 100% with Crist to about 55% with Rubio.

[pogo stick]

I'd like it if Crist won. He's undestroyable, a very good leader, and not far-right. Rubio is ok, But Il ike Crist better.

[Keystone Phil]

I think I hate this "Crist is unbeatable! 100% chance of winning!" talk more than I hate the talk of Obama and the Dems being nearly invincible in the coming years.

Yeah, on paper, Crist has a much better shot compared to Rubio but I think Rubio brings a lot to the table that is really under appreciated (a la Toomey). Also, if the rumors we've all heard about The Tan One are true, well...

[pogo stick]

I think I hate this "Crist is unbeatable! 100% chance of winning!" talk more than I hate the talk of Obama and the Dems being nearly invincible in the coming years.

Yeah, on paper, Crist has a much better shot compared to Rubio but I think Rubio brings a lot to the table that is really under appreciated (a la Toomey). Also, if the rumors we've all heard about The Tan One are true, well...

Honeslty ,Do we need another whacko like Toomey? I don't think so. Toomey is to fiscally conservative for me.But i'll support him..GRUDGINGLY

[Dan the Roman]

To be fair, Meek is not beating anybody. I am actually shocked here that given the non-minimal chance of Crist being upset, that they have not gotten someone like Rod Smith into the primary to block Meek, so that if Rubio wins they have a good shot.

[Keystone Phil]

Honeslty ,Do we need another whacko like Toomey? I don't think so. Toomey is to fiscally conservative for me.But i'll support him..GRUDGINGLY

Uh...I don't believe Toomey is a "whacko."

[Lunar]

To be fair, Meek is not beating anybody. I am actually shocked here that given the non-minimal chance of Crist being upset, that they have not gotten someone like Rod Smith into the primary to block Meek, so that if Rubio wins they have a good shot.

Meek would have a very solid shot against a Marco Rubio that beats Crist from the right.

[Rowan]

Would that illiterate Brown woman have a chance to win statewide?

[Lunar]

Would that illiterate Brown woman have a chance to win statewide?

Not in a trillion years except maybe for some position like agricultural commissioner where people wouldn't actually hear her speak on television

[Keystone Phil]

Would that illiterate Brown woman have a chance to win statewide?

Absolutely. If she was running in Maryland.

[Rowan]

Alright, so I should be rooting for her to beat Meek. Got it.

I heard there was an internal poll that showed her up big over Meek, but I forget where I read it.

[Lunar]

She claimed that she had an internal poll showing her ahead.

But that makes sense, it's not like Meek has done any name recognition efforts or anything and they're both Congressmen representing equal amounts of population.  An internal poll between two candidates with equal name recognition would probably show the person conducting it ahead.

But that ignores Meek's millions of dollars and tons of high-profile endorsements (SEIU, Bill Clinton, etc), not to mention that she'd be completely unappealing in advertisements:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJRqzfy3R-Y&feature=related

[Verily]

Did Mel Martinez "revive Republican fortunes among Hispanics"? (Hint: No.)

Rubio is strictly a downside. If Crist loses the primary, it's bad news for Republicans. Doesn't mean the seat is lost... although it probably does considering who Rubio would have to alienate to win the primary. Maybe not against Meek, though.

Quizá se lo hizó...

Obama's preformance amongst Hispanics was lower in Florida than in any other state. Maybe Mel Martinez didn't win over 100% of Hispanics to Republicans, but who can say what effect having a Senator named Martinez had on Hispanics in Florida being friendlier to Republicans than in any other state?

While Republicans long have relied on anti-Castro votes from Cuban immigrants, the younger Cubans who're more Americanized, not to mention all the people from various other Hispanic countries, care less and less about hardlining Cuba, so the Republicans there need to do something to keep Hispanics on their side.

Plus, just as a citizen, I'd like to see both Democrats and Republicans capable of reaching out to all Americans, rather than Democrats having a monopoly on non-whites (aka 40% of America) as Republicans are currently allowing.

...

I don't even know what to say. Obviously Obama did worse among Hispanics in Florida than elsewhere. The Cubans in Florida vote Republican. That has nothing--Nothing!--to do with Mel Martinez or any other individual person except Fidel Castro. It's not even worth discussing this with you if you're going to make such baseless conjectures.

Rubio is a bad candidate insofar as he has to campaign against and defeat Crist in the primary and thereby destroy any support he might otherwise garner among moderate voters. But Meek is also not a good candidate (and Brown would be a disaster for the Democrats, although she stands no chance at the nomination), so nominating Rubio isn't completely throwing the race away as it would have been with Iorio or even Gelber as the Democratic nominee.

[Rowan]

It's too soon for Rubio. He needs to wait a few years, and go after Nelson's seat, even though Nelson will most likely be safe.