Will America have a viable third party anytime within the next 50 years?

[bgwah]

Will there be at least something like the Reform or Progressive parties? Yeah, probably.

But will they actually elect a President, or form a majority in Congress? Will they last more than a decade or so? I doubt it. In fact, any new party that achieved this would likely to do so by replacing one of the current parties and keeping the two party system alive, and thus disqualifying them from being able to call themselves a "third" party.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It's unlikely, but if the Democrats made a major shift towards a DLC type thinking, I could see a Populist Party emerge.

[Vepres]

I voted no, though nothing is certain. There are pros and cons to both a two-party system and a multi-party system. Neither is better, they are just different. I don't know if I would prefer two big tent parties over many narrow parties that form coalitions, or visa versa.

That said, I voted no because the American people are satisfied with a two-party system. When they dislike both candidates, an independent may emerge. If one party becomes too corrupt or incompetent, they simply vote it out. While simple, this has worked for 150 years of our countries' history. So while it may not be ideal in the eyes of some, it does work, and so the voters have no incentive to change the status quo. 
   

[Frodo]

That depends entirely on what the GOP does, and what direction the Republican Party decides to take.  If they continue to marginalize themselves by not only moving further to the right, but also in reinforcing the impression that the GOP is a home only to WASPs (and male WASPs at that), Democrats will perceive them as less of a threat, and will be even further inclined to fill the vacuum on the center-right left by the shrinking Republican Party.  So, any (viable) third party will have to emerge on the left side of the political spectrum. 

[Magic 8-Ball]

That depends entirely on what the GOP does, and what direction the Republican Party decides to take.  If they continue to marginalize themselves by not only moving further to the right, but also in reinforcing the impression that the GOP is a home only to WASPs (and male WASPs at that), Democrats will perceive them as less of a threat, and will be even further inclined to fill the vacuum on the center-right left by the shrinking Republican Party.  So, any (viable) third party will have to emerge on the left side of the political spectrum. 

History has shown that one of the two major parties adopts the more popular aspects of third parties.  If the Republicans don't start to mirror their actions with their rhetoric (and moderate much of their social agenda), it seems like eventually a saner Libertarian Party would begin to grow and siphon disaffected conservatives.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Very unlikely. Then again, a reasonably powerful Libertarian Party would be nice. Guess I can dream.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That depends entirely on what the GOP does, and what direction the Republican Party decides to take.  If they continue to marginalize themselves by not only moving further to the right, but also in reinforcing the impression that the GOP is a home only to WASPs (and male WASPs at that), Democrats will perceive them as less of a threat, and will be even further inclined to fill the vacuum on the center-right left by the shrinking Republican Party.  So, any (viable) third party will have to emerge on the left side of the political spectrum. 

History has shown that one of the two major parties adopts the more popular aspects of third parties.  If the Republicans don't start to mirror their actions with their rhetoric (and moderate much of their social agenda), it seems like eventually a saner Libertarian Party would begin to grow and siphon disaffected conservatives.

Aren't true libertarians social progressives ?

[Lunar]

     Very unlikely. Then again, a reasonably powerful Libertarian Party would be nice. Guess I can dream.

We generally have a viable third party every 50 years in this country, at least for an election.  Why is it unlikely?  Perot probably would have gotten some EV's if he didn't drop out and reinforce in everyone's minds that he's crazy.

To be honest, the structural factors in 2008 hinted towards a strong third party candidate, but the political biographies of the candidates that managed to succeed in the primaries prevented that from happening.

[Magic 8-Ball]

That depends entirely on what the GOP does, and what direction the Republican Party decides to take.  If they continue to marginalize themselves by not only moving further to the right, but also in reinforcing the impression that the GOP is a home only to WASPs (and male WASPs at that), Democrats will perceive them as less of a threat, and will be even further inclined to fill the vacuum on the center-right left by the shrinking Republican Party.  So, any (viable) third party will have to emerge on the left side of the political spectrum. 

History has shown that one of the two major parties adopts the more popular aspects of third parties.  If the Republicans don't start to mirror their actions with their rhetoric (and moderate much of their social agenda), it seems like eventually a saner Libertarian Party would begin to grow and siphon disaffected conservatives.

Aren't true libertarians social progressives ?

True Libertarians, yes.  By "disaffected conservatives," I meant mainstream conservatives who are socially moderate.  Should the Libertarians begin to grow, it seems logical that these voters - who normally hold their nose and vote Republican - would hold their nose and vote Libertarian.

It doesn't have to be the Libertarian Party; I used it as a readily available example.

That said, it is unlikely that any third party would emerge and have staying power.  The Republicans and the Democrats would adopt its more attractive positions in an act of self-preservation.

[aaaa2222]

     Very unlikely. Then again, a reasonably powerful Libertarian Party would be nice. Guess I can dream.

We generally have a viable third party every 50 years in this country, at least for an election.  Why is it unlikely?  Perot probably would have gotten some EV's if he didn't drop out and reinforce in everyone's minds that he's crazy.

To be honest, the structural factors in 2008 hinted towards a strong third party candidate, but the political biographies of the candidates that managed to succeed in the primaries prevented that from happening.

I loved Perot's policies, but he was certifiably insane. A great candidate, but he never would've won.

[pbrower2a]

It could be a new party rising as one of the elder two fades away.