Rhode Island: Chafee will likely run for Governor, Laffey and Cicilline out

[Dan the Roman]

Why doesn't a Chafee run open the door for the Republicans?  I don't get it.  Chafee is a liberal independent who will mostly compete with the Democrat for votes.  Why doesn't this create a void where a Republican could win with 35-40%?  Is it because Rhode Island Republicans think Chafee is actually good?  Or is it because The Republicans don't have a candidate that could get 35-40% in a three way race?

Certainly a bit more than half of them like Chafee (maybe a bit less than half and a few supported him on electability) considering the 2006 primary result. That reduces the maximum Republican percentage against him to about 20% (30% if he ran as a Democrat, but he won't).

Your assuming that republicans run a real candidate. They have no bench in the state. More incumbent legislators lost last year than were elected total. They have 6 seats in the house out of 75. Without Laffey, and with Chafee in the race, its likely you will end up with a freeper.

[Verily]

Why doesn't a Chafee run open the door for the Republicans?  I don't get it.  Chafee is a liberal independent who will mostly compete with the Democrat for votes.  Why doesn't this create a void where a Republican could win with 35-40%?  Is it because Rhode Island Republicans think Chafee is actually good?  Or is it because The Republicans don't have a candidate that could get 35-40% in a three way race?

Certainly a bit more than half of them like Chafee (maybe a bit less than half and a few supported him on electability) considering the 2006 primary result. That reduces the maximum Republican percentage against him to about 20% (30% if he ran as a Democrat, but he won't).

Your assuming that republicans run a real candidate. They have no bench in the state. More incumbent legislators lost last year than were elected total. They have 6 seats in the house out of 75. Without Laffey, and with Chafee in the race, its likely you will end up with a freeper.

Well, exactly. That's why I said earlier that the likely result is Chafee: 50%, Generic Dem hack: 40%, Crazy Right-wing nutjob: 10%. 20% is just the maximum, say, if Laffey had run.

[Smash255]

Why doesn't a Chafee run open the door for the Republicans?  I don't get it.  Chafee is a liberal independent who will mostly compete with the Democrat for votes.  Why doesn't this create a void where a Republican could win with 35-40%?  Is it because Rhode Island Republicans think Chafee is actually good?  Or is it because The Republicans don't have a candidate that could get 35-40% in a three way race?

Republicans have absolutely zero bench in the state.  Chafee's numbers among Republicans aren't awful (he did win the Primary) though some may have just voted for him on electability and others may not like him now that he ditched the GOP, but he would get some GOP support.  And even if he didn't, very few people in RI are Republicans.  Even if Chafee takes a higher % of the Dem vote than GOP vote keep in mind Dems outnumber Republicans by almost 4-1.  In order for Republicans to have even a remote chance of winning the state they have to dominate among Independents (which actually is larger than the Dems), with Chafee running no way in hell does that happen.

[Lunar]

Is Elizabeth Roberts, the Lt. Governor, a Republican?

Be interesting to see how the local GOP reacts to this, if they'll pull a CT-GOP during Lieberman or not

[Lunar]

Is Elizabeth Roberts, the Lt. Governor, a Republican?

Be interesting to see how the local GOP reacts to this, if they'll pull a CT-GOP during Lieberman or not

edit: Nevermind, she IS running but she's a Democrat. 


http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/local_news/local_wpri_caprio_top_fundraiser20090413

CRANSTON, R.I. (AP) - There are no official candidates in the 2010 Rhode Island governor’s race yet, but the fundraising race is heating up.

State General Treasurer Frank Caprio leads all hopefuls with $1.2 million. Attorney General Patrick Lynch is No. 2 with $500,000, and Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts is third with $300,000. All three are Democrats.

Former U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee created an exploratory committee last week, which allows him to begin fundraising for a possible run as an independent. Republican state Rep. Joe Trillo of Warwick is another possible contender.

The winner of the November 2010 election will replace Republican Gov. Don Carcieri, who can’t seek re-election because of term limits.

Experts say it takes $2 million to $3 million to win the election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, I know the Democrats had enougn to over-ride vetoes in the state legislature, but I didn't realize that their margins were similar to Massachusetts.
Lower: 69 Dems/6 Reps
Upper: 33 Dems/4 Reps/1(I)

Anyways, Chafee supports gay marriage. What are the odds that Rhode Island passes legislation allowing gay marriage in 2011 (or heck, before then)? There's nothing prohibiting gay marriage in Rhode Island, it's just not explicitly allowed.

[Holmes]

Anyways, Chafee supports gay marriage. What are the odds that Rhode Island passes legislation allowing gay marriage in 2011 (or heck, before then)? There's nothing prohibiting gay marriage in Rhode Island, it's just not explicitly allowed.

Unlikely. Out of touch lawmakers. It'll be one of the last New England state.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why doesn't a Chafee run open the door for the Republicans?  I don't get it.  Chafee is a liberal independent who will mostly compete with the Democrat for votes.  Why doesn't this create a void where a Republican could win with 35-40%?  Is it because Rhode Island Republicans think Chafee is actually good?  Or is it because The Republicans don't have a candidate that could get 35-40% in a three way race?

Republicans have absolutely zero bench in the state.  Chafee's numbers among Republicans aren't awful (he did win the Primary) though some may have just voted for him on electability and others may not like him now that he ditched the GOP, but he would get some GOP support.  And even if he didn't, very few people in RI are Republicans.  Even if Chafee takes a higher % of the Dem vote than GOP vote keep in mind Dems outnumber Republicans by almost 4-1.  In order for Republicans to have even a remote chance of winning the state they have to dominate among Independents (which actually is larger than the Dems), with Chafee running no way in hell does that happen.

To be fair, Republicans didn't really have a bench in 2002 when Carcieri won, and they didn't really have a chance once Rep. Machtley (R-RI) lost to Linc Almond in the 1994 Primary.

[Holmes]

Like... who was Carcieri anyway, and can we call his (re-)election the biggest miracle ever?

[© tweed]

Like... who was Carcieri anyway, and can we call his (re-)election the biggest miracle ever?

Carcieri isn't some arch-conservative.  He's a fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republican (vetoing a gay marriage bill =/= conservative).  The R brand name hurt him a lot in 2006, but he managed to pull through.  Perhaps someone from Rhode Island could enlighten you more than I could.

he vetoed medical marijuana

[Keystone Phil]

How is he socially liberal? I think he's also Pro Life, by the way.

[Smash255]

Like... who was Carcieri anyway, and can we call his (re-)election the biggest miracle ever?

Carcieri isn't some arch-conservative.  He's a fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republican (vetoing a gay marriage bill =/= conservative).  The R brand name hurt him a lot in 2006, but he managed to pull through.  Perhaps someone from Rhode Island could enlighten you more than I could.

He was saved by Chafee's Primary victory over Laffey.   Laffey would have lost by MUCH more than Chafee did, and because of it it would have dragged down Carcieri who barely held on as it is.  No way would he have survived if the senate race was won by Whitestone by 30.

[War on Want]

I give my full support to Chafee, a true FF.