Who do want to win/think will win?

[Torie]

Obama's position is steadily deteriorating. That is my sense of it.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Obama's position is steadily deteriorating. That is my sense of it.

I tend to agree.

He needs to be running negative ads right now, there's no question. But I think the more negative ads he runs, the more he shoots himself in the foot and becomes a little less hopey-changey.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yes, a successful businessman with a lovely wife, great family, millions of dollars, and strong legacy is a failure.

He's held high political office before. It did not go especially well, except for something that he's now running away from.

_______________

Obama's position is favored right now to the extent that his best bet will, I think, be to try to simply run out the clock. Both sides running plodding, negative campaigns, all else being equal over the next couple of months, will I think lead to results vaguely similar to 2004, possibly a bit less narrow for the incumbent.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

There are other ways to measure success.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There are other ways to measure success.

Of course, and there are plenty of ways in which Romney's been a success, but I think his time as governor is most relevant to what his time as president might hypothetically look like.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes, a successful businessmanauthor with a lovely wife, great family, millions of dollars, and strong legacy is a failure.

Fixed

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

27. The secret detention facilities in Eastern Europe and elsewhere are being closed
28. Ended the previous policy; the US now has a no torture policy and is in compliance with the Geneva Convention standards

I don't think having someone else do the dirty work for you should count as being in compliance with the Geneva Convention.   


Right now I'm thinking I'll vote for Johnson, but really I'm not convinced any of the people running are up to the task.   I'd say Obama is ever so slightly favored to win.

[5280]

I'm appalled by the pro-Obama crap going on in this hackish thread.

[Joe Republic]

I'm appalled by the pro-Obama crap going on in this hackish thread.

Yeah I know!  How dare people have a positive opinion of one of the two main candidates in this election?!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Romney will not win lol. i know some old fogies will voted GOP all their life and they are gonna vote Democrat for the first time because they said of all the GOP candidnates they seen in their 80+ years hes the worst one with Bob Dole being 2nd.i am pretty sure others think that as well.  so Obama/Obama.

Notwithstanding the PPP polls it looks like a tied race right now and this isn't with the convention typical bounces.

[Franzl]

Obama/Obama

[Likely Voter]

So from the limited data, there does seem to be a bit of a bias towards believing that your guy is going to win. Even though inTrade betting, polling averages and the Nate Silver/NYT projection all predict an Obama win, a majority of Romney fans believe he will turn it around. Of course there is nothing wrong with being optimistic and thinking your guy has what it takes to win in the end.

Perhaps I should have asked, do you think your guy is winning now?

I put this up because when you look at the polling subforum it is full of one side or the other discounting almost every poll. There are people who seem to believe every poll showing their guy up and complete ignore the ones with him down, citing over sampling, polling firm bias etc. People believe what they want to see I guess. Otherwise MSNBC and Fox would be out of business.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

3rd Party/Obama. I think this election was the Republicans' to lose, and that they've likely succeeded by choosing an out-of-touch vulture capitalist as their nominee. (Although to be fair, all their contenders were basically terrible in one way or another.)