PPP: Obama would crush Palin in 2012

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Here is what the map would look like if Obama were to win over Palin by 20 points.

Close states: AZ, AR, FL, GA, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, NC, ND, OH, SC, SD, TN, VA and WV.

[bgwah]

My guess on an Obama +20 election:

What's your thinking on S.C. staying Republican vs. Kentucky and Georgia going Democratic?

Whites in places like Kentucky, West Virginia and Arkansas are more likely to vote for a Democrat than ones in South Carolina are. Furthermore, South Carolina only appeared more Democratic this election because it has a larger black population than say, Kentucky.

Whether Obama wins or loses in 2012, I think the AR/KY/WV area is going to have the largest trend towards him. I think a good chunk of those voters are going to see he isn't The-Evil-Black-Anti-Christ and go back to their Democratic partisan hackery.

As for Georgia, I really wasn't sure about that one, which is why I kept it at >40. With that said, Georgia has a large metropolitan area (Atlanta) that South Carolina doesn't, and that should help Obama.

Quite frankly, if Obama wins by 20, he has to be getting these votes from somewhere... The Northeast, West Coast and parts of the Midwest wouldn't be able to get him to +20 on their own.

I wasn't really sure about Texas or Louisiana, either. Weird things can happen when the popular vote is +20...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously there would need to be a dramatic shift amongst traditionally Democratic white voters in Appalachia.

In between Arkansas and the Appalachian mountains is a thing called the Mississippi River.

(and a lot more besides, actually, but let's keep it simple).

[pbrower2a]

Obviously there would need to be a dramatic shift amongst traditionally Democratic white voters in Appalachia.

In between Arkansas and the Appalachian mountains is a thing called the Mississippi River.

(and a lot more besides, actually, but let's keep it simple).

How do the Ozarks differ so greatly from the southern Appalachians? 

Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Kentucky usually move together due to similar culture and demographics. West Virginia isn't quite with them because it is more unionized. Democrats can win these states if Carter 1976 or Clinton 92/96.. note the pattern: unambiguously Southern, centrist, populist, with a trace of rusticity. Heck, Harold Ford came close to winning the open US Senate seat from Tennessee in 2006.

 

[justfollowingtheelections]

I bet Obama could raise a lot of money with Palin as president.  As it was, he indirectly raised a lot of money off her as VP out of fears of her ever being near the Oval Office.

Twenty points behind? Why? Alaska is in excellent financial shape right now.

If that is the case then where did those stories of people in Alaska starving to death come from?  I'm not saying it's the governor's fault, but to say that they're in excellent financial shape when people are starving to death is absurd.

[Lunar]

I bet Obama could raise a lot of money with Palin as president.  As it was, he indirectly raised a lot of money off her as VP out of fears of her ever being near the Oval Office.

Twenty points behind? Why? Alaska is in excellent financial shape right now.

If that is the case then where did those stories of people in Alaska starving to death come from?  I'm not saying it's the governor's fault, but to say that they're in excellent financial shape when people are starving to death is absurd.

I think Alaska's financial shape is more of a past-tense thing considering what oil prices were and are.  I don' see how that's relevant to my comment thogh

[pbrower2a]

I bet Obama could raise a lot of money with Palin as president.  As it was, he indirectly raised a lot of money off her as VP out of fears of her ever being near the Oval Office.

Twenty points behind? Why? Alaska is in excellent financial shape right now.

If that is the case then where did those stories of people in Alaska starving to death come from?  I'm not saying it's the governor's fault, but to say that they're in excellent financial shape when people are starving to death is absurd.

I think Alaska's financial shape is more of a past-tense thing considering what oil prices were and are.  I don' see how that's relevant to my comment thogh

A society that can't meet basic human needs is in deep trouble irrespective of its financial condition.  Alaska is a tough place in which to make a living because it has little agriculture. Maybe a little green technology could be introduced into Alaska to ensure at the least some hydroponic farming. Fruits and vegetables could at least be freeze-dried for winter use.

I can imagine a Democratic ad campaign that would be used against Sarah Palin: one with the title

THE ALASKA YOU DON'T KNOW

that shows extreme poverty despite oil profits. It could work wonders.



 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Arkansas, West Virginia and Kentucky aren't flipping to Obama any time soon. South Carolina is possible. That's the only state out of those that saw the white vote move in Obama's direction. The others saw a dramatic shift away from him.

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas, West Virginia and Kentucky aren't flipping to Obama any time soon. South Carolina is possible. That's the only state out of those that saw the white vote move in Obama's direction. The others saw a dramatic shift away from him.

Even Texas (due to large minority population and rapid urbanization) seems more likely to vote for Obama in 2016 than does either Arkansas, Kentucky, or Tennessee.

Those three states and Tennessee can vote for southern moderate populist Democrats, ideally with rural connections  (Carter '76, Bill Clinton). Barack Obama isn't Southern, and is decidedly not rural. It's not race; Tennessee came close to voting for Harold Ford for the US Senate -- a Southern moderate, rural populist.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Arkansas, West Virginia and Kentucky aren't flipping to Obama any time soon. South Carolina is possible. That's the only state out of those that saw the white vote move in Obama's direction. The others saw a dramatic shift away from him.

Even Texas (due to large minority population and rapid urbanization) seems more likely to vote for Obama in 2016 than does either Arkansas, Kentucky, or Tennessee.

Those three states and Tennessee can vote for southern moderate populist Democrats, ideally with rural connections  (Carter '76, Bill Clinton). Barack Obama isn't Southern, and is decidedly not rural. It's not race; Tennessee came close to voting for Harold Ford for the US Senate -- a Southern moderate, rural populist.

Just a minor correction.
Ford was anything but rural. He and his father represented urban Memphis, and that was a fact that was used against him in 2006.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Arkansas, West Virginia and Kentucky aren't flipping to Obama any time soon. South Carolina is possible. That's the only state out of those that saw the white vote move in Obama's direction. The others saw a dramatic shift away from him.

Even Texas (due to large minority population and rapid urbanization) seems more likely to vote for Obama in 2016 than does either Arkansas, Kentucky, or Tennessee.

Those three states and Tennessee can vote for southern moderate populist Democrats, ideally with rural connections  (Carter '76, Bill Clinton). Barack Obama isn't Southern, and is decidedly not rural. It's not race; Tennessee came close to voting for Harold Ford for the US Senate -- a Southern moderate, rural populist.

Tennessee is a solidly Republican state now though. In fact, Al Gore lost it in 2000 despite it being his home state!

Oh and px75 is right--Harold Ford may be a southern moderate populist, but not rural. His district--district 9--includes the Memphis area.

[hcallega]

The Harold Ford comment probably had to do with urban appeal on social issues (like guns) and his pro-military views. That being said, Obama could win West Virginia. The race was quite tight there until the end when McCain hammered home the anti-American/race issue. I would say that WVA is one of the states that could flip if things improve (Montana, Arizona, and Missouri are also included). West Virginia is a "bread and butter" state that probably would have voted for Hillary. I do agree with Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky. Arkansas's rural population is staunchly socially conservative, and many of the social liberals are pro-buisness (just look at the senators, they both voted for CAFTA). Tennessee has generally been more GOP leaning anyway, and in the case of Kentucky, most of the sons and daughters of the miners moved to states like Indiana and Ohio where they could get better jobs (or any jobs for that matter)

[You kip if you want to...]

Arkansas, West Virginia and Kentucky aren't flipping to Obama any time soon. South Carolina is possible. That's the only state out of those that saw the white vote move in Obama's direction. The others saw a dramatic shift away from him.

Even Texas (due to large minority population and rapid urbanization) seems more likely to vote for Obama in 2016 than does either Arkansas, Kentucky, or Tennessee.

Those three states and Tennessee can vote for southern moderate populist Democrats, ideally with rural connections  (Carter '76, Bill Clinton). Barack Obama isn't Southern, and is decidedly not rural. It's not race; Tennessee came close to voting for Harold Ford for the US Senate -- a Southern moderate, rural populist.

Texas will be blue in 2016 if we have a good candidate, definatly. And Obama's 2nd term goes well or a new GOP President's 1st term goes terrible.

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas, West Virginia and Kentucky aren't flipping to Obama any time soon. South Carolina is possible. That's the only state out of those that saw the white vote move in Obama's direction. The others saw a dramatic shift away from him.

Even Texas (due to large minority population and rapid urbanization) seems more likely to vote for Obama in 2016 than does either Arkansas, Kentucky, or Tennessee.

Those three states and Tennessee can vote for southern moderate populist Democrats, ideally with rural connections  (Carter '76, Bill Clinton). Barack Obama isn't Southern, and is decidedly not rural. It's not race; Tennessee came close to voting for Harold Ford for the US Senate -- a Southern moderate, rural populist.

Texas will be blue in 2016 if we have a good candidate, definatly. And Obama's 2nd term goes well or a new GOP President's 1st term goes terrible.

Whoops - I should have said 2012!