The Debate Parameters as I see It......

[mddem2004]

If history is any guide, thursdays debate will be the most watched of the three.

Further, it will concentrate on Foreign Policy issues that are dominating the news of late......not domestic issues.

We have an incumbant President who 6 weeks ago felt this area would be his strongest suit against his challenger, hoping to 'put him away'. Yet in those six weeks, the one issue - if kept off the frontpages - might guaruntee him a re-election has reared its ugly head and is now the dominant issue in the campaign - IRAQ.

America will be faced with these two choices:
1) Stay with a president who is campaigning on "Stay the course, Strong Leadership, don't change horses midstream". Yet, the race shows that 1/2 of America is not wholly comfortable with that course, is unsure if it wants 4 more years of the presidents policy's in Iraq that is looking more like a quagmire every day. The electorate is open to change.

2) A challenger that is still largely an unknown to the electorate, has been damaged in the areas of character traits, and although in policy is not all that different from the incumbants, does offer the chance for new leadership and a fresh start.

The president no doubt will stick to a few 'moralistic' themes to justify his course of action. However, he must sound convincing that he knows a solution to Iraq.

Vulnerability For Bush: Sounding too 'pie in the sky' about our prospects in Iraq and sounding like he does not have a real grasp of the situation.

The Challenger must show that the current administration has presided over Iraq with incompetance, short sightedness, and has made some very real miscalculations that threaten any future success there. He MUST appear to have a firmer, more realistic grasp of the issue, and appear to offer a better hope of success there.

Vulnerability for Kerry - Soundng too much like a Pompus Ass. This may well be Kerry's make or break point in the campaign.

Somewhat like 1980 (with the roles reversed) people are unsure how comfortasble they are with the challenger. And like 1980, they are not entirely happy with the current President.

But make no mistake about it folks - people are going to want to hear some solutions to Iraq. They are tiring of the drip, drip, drip of US military dead with no apparent improvement - just more of the same bad news.

It will be a choice of trusting the guy who drove the car into the ditch to get us out, or time to change drivers......

[AuH2O]

Bush is beating Kerry on Iraq. I don't see how the debate can change that. I'll be watching though.

[ATFFL]

No offense, but comparing Bush and his approval ratings to Carter and his is beyond ludicrous.  Bush is at or above 50%.  Carter was below 40%.  Bush is also currently sounly beating Kerry on ability to handle Iraq.  That is what Kerry needs to improve.

[nomorelies]

Kerry has to attack Bushs crdibility. He has to show his total ignorance to opinion in 2002. He only listens to criticism during the election year. Kerry has to go for Rove and say that all Bush does is Character Assassinate lok at my friend John McCain in 2000.

[Light Touch]

Bush will win this.  I think he'll make a strong case that the Iraq situation is mostly calm (with the hotspots exception) and that things are well on their way.  He might even save the debates to make an announcement of some "progress" made there.